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 Post subject: Re: 6/8 Primary Results
PostPosted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 10:38 pm 
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Major General

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51-41%, 19% Precincts reporting.

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 Post subject: Re: 6/8 Primary Results
PostPosted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 10:40 pm 
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Lyon and Warren have been called for Vanderplaats.

I also do believe that Roberts is acting as a spoiler for Vanderplaats.

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 Post subject: Re: 6/8 Primary Results
PostPosted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 10:41 pm 
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Polk county-46.6% B to 46% BVP with 95 % in. Boy I wish Vander Plaats can pull this out.

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 Post subject: Re: 6/8 Primary Results
PostPosted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 10:41 pm 
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In other news. South Carolina primary has been called.

...
...
...

It will be a run-off.

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 Post subject: Re: 6/8 Primary Results
PostPosted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 10:43 pm 
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If Brandst doesn't get 50% there will be a runoff correct?

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 Post subject: Re: 6/8 Primary Results
PostPosted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 10:44 pm 
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51-40%. 21% precincts reporting. votes are at 31000-24000 appr.

Quote:
If Brandst doesn't get 50% there will be a runoff correct?


Actually, its if he doesn't get 35%.

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 Post subject: Re: 6/8 Primary Results
PostPosted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 10:46 pm 
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According to the triangultaion I conned my professor into doing, there is a 63.7% chance that this race will be decided within 4%.

22% reporting, 51-40%. 32000-25000.

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 Post subject: Re: 6/8 Primary Results
PostPosted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 10:49 pm 
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http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2010/06/08/vander-plaats-strong-in-3rd-district/

Quote:
Bob Vander Plaats came extremely close to Terry Branstad in Polk County. Iowa Politics Insider has details. Expect him to do well in the 3rd Congressional District.

The Register’s Iowa Poll published Sunday showed Vander Plaats with his best favorability scores in the 3rd District, with 53 percent favorable. Vander Plaats’ home base, the 5th District, has him with 40 percent favorable ratings. Branstad does best in the 1st District, with 49 percent very favorable and 26 percent mostly favorable.


25% precincts reporting. 50-41% Vanderplaats gaining. 36000-29000 appr.

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 Post subject: Re: 6/8 Primary Results
PostPosted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 10:53 pm 
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28% Precincts reporting. 50.6-40.7%, 40000-32000 appr.

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 Post subject: Re: 6/8 Primary Results
PostPosted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 10:56 pm 
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33% Precincts reporting. 50.7-40.6%, 45k-36k appr.

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 Post subject: Re: 6/8 Primary Results
PostPosted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 10:59 pm 
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It's good to see Bob running so well vs. the latest polling. Shows the polling can be wrong in primary races with low turnout. The polls shows Branstad by 25 but i'm thinking its going to finish Branstad by 8.


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 Post subject: Re: 6/8 Primary Results
PostPosted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 11:00 pm 
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Can anyone tell me were we are going to make up the 10%? Please give me some hope!


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 Post subject: Re: 6/8 Primary Results
PostPosted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 11:01 pm 
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36% precincts reporting. 50.7-40.8%. 48k-39k appr.

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 Post subject: Re: 6/8 Primary Results
PostPosted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 11:02 pm 
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41% precincts reporting. 50.7-40.7%. 53-43k appr.

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 Post subject: Re: 6/8 Primary Results
PostPosted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 11:03 pm 
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Vanderplaats problem is Roberts. If Roberts wasn't in this race. Vanderplaats would be ahead by 3%.

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 Post subject: Re: 6/8 Primary Results
PostPosted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 11:04 pm 
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its a shame there wont be a runoff

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 Post subject: Re: 6/8 Primary Results
PostPosted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 11:06 pm 
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50.3-39.9%, 43% precincts reporting. 56k-44k approx.

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 Post subject: Re: 6/8 Primary Results
PostPosted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 11:08 pm 
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The new triangulation by my professor doesn't look good. This is going to come down to turnout in the remaining counties.

46% Precincts reporting. 50.3-40%. 59k-47k appr.

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 Post subject: Re: 6/8 Primary Results
PostPosted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 11:09 pm 
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Keep your fingers crossed and pray, pray, pray.

But bear one thing in mind. This was always David vs. Goliath -- with a four-term governor and the IA republican establishment and money. No one expected Bob to keep it this close.

However it turns out, we should all be extremely proud of Bob, IA Huck Pac and all the BVP devotees. They turned out and many of the others didn't.

This is a victory for them -- their labor, their devotion. I hope you take it all the way tonight -- but no matter what, you have done a fantastic job -- and the fiscal conservatives are well aware that, in 2012, with a Mike Huckabee on the ballot, it is all coming down on them again.


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 Post subject: Re: 6/8 Primary Results
PostPosted: Tue Jun 08, 2010 11:10 pm 
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Branstad is going to win by about 8 I think. I don't see enough votes out there to close this one. Still a great effort out there to make this a close race. Very strong finish.


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