Hucks Army - Faith. Family. Freedom. [Grassroots] JOIN HUCKS ARMY | GET INVOLVED | FUNDRAISING | LINKS | LEADERSHIP | ABOUT
It is currently Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:09 pm

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 1 post ] 
Author Message
PostPosted: Tue Dec 21, 2010 9:06 pm 
Offline
Major General

Joined: Thu Mar 06, 2008 11:42 am
Posts: 799
Likes: 0
Liked: 54
This poll has been out for a few days, but since no one has posted it yet and since it contains some interesting numbers I thought I would go ahead and post it now.

Quote:
Post-ABC poll: Sarah Palin lags Obama in theoretical 2012 presidential election

By Dan Balz and Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, December 17, 2010; 7:00 AM

Sarah Palin has played a prominent role in defining Republican Party politics this year but still faces sizable obstacles if she decides to run for president in 2012, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

This Story
Post-ABC poll: Sarah Palin lags Obama in theoretical 2012 presidential election
Washington Post-ABC News Poll data

Six in 10 voters say they would not even consider voting for the former Alaska governor if she launches a White House bid, and she loses badly to President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 general election test.

Despite her high profile, amplified this fall by her campaign appearances and endorsements and her new reality TV program, "Sarah Palin's Alaska," Palin has not made demonstrable progress in overcoming opposition to her possible candidacy. If anything, she has slipped over the past year.

A slim 8 percent of all registered voters say they would definitely vote for Palin for president, while 31 percent say they would consider doing so. Fully 60 percent say they definitely would not. Among all Americans, 59 percent say they would not vote for her, up from 53 percent in November 2009.

Even among Republicans, Palin has detractors, with 29 percent saying they would definitely not back her candidacy. Her highest support comes from Republican women and conservative Republicans. Even so, only about one in five in each group say they would certainly support her presidential bid.

Neither does Palin enjoy wide support among independents: 62 percent say they definitely would not vote for her. Among moderates, 66 percent write off her prospective candidacy.

In a hypothetical head-to-head general election matchup against Obama, the president prevails by 13 percentage points over Palin among registered voters, 53 to 40 percent. Palin draws 78 percent of Republicans in that test, while Obama enjoys support from 89 percent of Democrats. Independents break widely - 56 percent to 35 percent - for the incumbent.

Still, the survey shows limits to Obama's appeal. More than four in 10 voters - 44 percent - say they would not even consider voting for him in 2012, with about one in four definitively behind him. Among independents, 40 percent say they would not vote for him, 36 percent say they would consider it and 21 percent say they would certainly back him.

The survey also measured the potential appeal of New York City Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg as an independent candidate for president in 2012. While just 2 percent of registered voters say they would definitely support him, another 45 percent said they would think about it. Forty-three percent say they would definitely not vote for him.

In a hypothetical three-way ballot test, Bloomberg draws about a fifth of the vote (18 percent), but doesn't alter the likely outcome. Obama prevails easily in such a matchup, with 46 percent of registered voters supporting him. Palin runs second with 32 percent.

Bloomberg's highest levels of support come from independents and young voters, although Obama far outpaces him in both groups. He also draws 25 percent of the vote from those who disapprove of Obama's handling of the presidency, with Palin taking almost six in 10.

The poll was conducted Dec. 9 to 12 among a random national sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted on conventional and cellular telephones. Results from the full survey have a margin-of-sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/17/AR2010121701512.html

What I thought was interesting about this poll is not that Palin loses badly to Obama (we already knew this from numerous polls), but that Obama is in trouble as well. Palin's hard ceiling is presently at 40% because fully 60% of registered voters say they definitely will not vote for her. Now this of course means she can not possibly win the white house unless Obama's ceiling should somehow get lower than her's. But, the bad news for Obama is that though his hard ceiling is presently at 56% which would leave him with the potential to win, he still only pulls in 53% when against Palin while she gets every one of those who have definitely not ruled her out (40%). In other words, Palin is not very well liked by the electorate, but Obama is not an acceptable alternative to 7% of those who reject Palin.

This means that not only is Palin's path to the White House nearly impossible, but that Obama's path to re-election has become very steep. 7% completely reject both he and Palin, and with a hard ceiling at 56% he hasn't got much to work with. Against a good candidate with a reasonably high ceiling like Huckabee, Obama will likely lose.

The Washington Post may have thought they were building up Obama in matching him with Palin, but if one looks at the results, it shows that he is very weak. Of the 60% that will absolutely not vote for Palin, he could only secure 53% while she got everyone except those who would definitely not vote for her under any circumstances (40%).

This is bad news for both potential candidates.


Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 1 post ] 

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
POWERED_BY