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|LA TIMES: Academics predict economy will drive a Romney vict
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|Author:||Grant [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 6:16 pm ]|
|Post subject:||LA TIMES: Academics predict economy will drive a Romney vict|
Academics predict economy will drive a Romney victory
Using a state-by-state analysis of unemployment and per-capita income, academics Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry of the University of Colorado project that Romney will win 52.9% of the popular vote and 320 electoral votes.
Their forecast suggests that President Obama will lose in almost all of the swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.
But Bickers said much of the polling thus far means relatively little, with much of the electorate still not focused on the race. The academics said their model focuses on the preeminent issue of the economy. Applied retrospectively, the model predicts the correct winner in every presidential contest going back to 1980, they said.
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