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Who will be the first to drop out?
Ben Carson 11%  11%  [ 1 ]
Jim Gilmore 22%  22%  [ 2 ]
Lindsey Graham 33%  33%  [ 3 ]
Bobby Jindal 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
John Kasich, 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
George Pataki 11%  11%  [ 1 ]
Rand Paul 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Rick Perry 11%  11%  [ 1 ]
Rick Santorum 11%  11%  [ 1 ]
Donald Trump 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 9
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 09, 2015 5:45 pm 
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I can only give 10 options for the poll. Feel free to name someone else and explain why, if you please. :D


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 09, 2015 5:50 pm 
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I picked Graham. I think he will participate in a few more debates/forums and then bow out. I don't think he seriously wants to go the distance.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2015 1:00 am 
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I voted Gilmore, but does anyone know that he's actually running? :lol:

Graham, Gilmore, Pataki, Santorum (good stand on the issues, but his moment in the sun is gone), Jindal (solid guy, but just no room for him in the crowded field) and Perry (sounds great on radio, but just has an awkwardness on TV) are all gonna have a very difficult time gaining any traction in this crowded field.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2015 9:45 am 
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I voted Ben Carson, because I believe he is a good man of common sense and knows he needs to get out before he siphons off too many votes from another good man in the race!

I know, wishful thinking. :tinfoil

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 11, 2015 9:51 am 
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So, is Rick Perry going to be the first one out?

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/aug/10/rick-perry-stops-paying-2016-campaign-staff-south-/#.VclMKcikcOU.twitter

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 12, 2015 7:07 pm 
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Watched Ben Carson on Neil Cavuto today. His response to an abortion question surprised me. What do you all think? Do you think this will have any impact?

http://uneditedpolitics.com/ben-carson-full-interview-with-neil-cavuto-black-lives-matter-and-planned-parenthood-81215/

Question comes at the 11 minute mark.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 13, 2015 3:14 pm 
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The Hill's take on possible drop-outs:

http://thehill.com/news-campaign/250954-gop-candidates-struggle-to-hang-on-until-iowa-caucuses

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 11, 2015 6:03 pm 
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So, Rick Perry is out...

Too bad, he is one of the better guys, imo.

http://news.yahoo.com/ap-sources-perry-exit-2016-republican-presidential-race-211809518--election.html

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 11, 2015 9:20 pm 
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It is too bad... and I think he would have been doing a lot better if not for Ted Cruz soaking up Texas donor money.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2015 9:50 am 
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An assessment on the current state of "dropping out":

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/09/17/no_sign_of_gop_field_thinning_yet.html

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2015 4:42 pm 
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Another GOVERNOR getting out, who doesn't have all the glitter and shine, but whose governing experience I'd have taken on most days over the non-experience of, for example, Cruz and to a lesser extent, Rubio.

Scott Walker to drop out:

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/09/21/scott-walker-said-to-be-quitting-presidential-race/?module=Notification&version=BreakingNews&region=FixedTop&action=Click&contentCollection=BreakingNews&contentID=51323276&pgtype=Homepage

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Post by Peter Liked by: juditupp
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2015 6:58 pm 
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And he appeared to be such a threat for so long...but turned out to be a Pawlenty repeat. Will Carson be this cycle's Cain? Fiorina the modern Bachman? Is Trump's ground-game real?


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2015 7:07 pm 
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Suprised by Walker dropping out on one hand, but candidates like him need lots of money to keep going and once that dries up like it did with Perry, it's over for them. Fortunately for us, Huck is good at "living off the land" as the saying goes.

Hopefully we'll be the beneficiery of some of Walker's previous support.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 23, 2015 8:10 am 
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christopher.wilkerson wrote:
And he appeared to be such a threat for so long...but turned out to be a Pawlenty repeat. Will Carson be this cycle's Cain? Fiorina the modern Bachman? Is Trump's ground-game real?

Things are heating up...

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 23, 2015 8:41 am 
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goalieman wrote:
Suprised by Walker dropping out on one hand, but candidates like him need lots of money to keep going and once that dries up like it did with Perry, it's over for them. Fortunately for us, Huck is good at "living off the land" as the saying goes.

Hopefully we'll be the beneficiery of some of Walker's previous support.


This is a nice write-up of the situation:

http://theiowarepublican.com/2015/walkers-epic-fall-exit-will-shake-things-up-in-iowa/

Quote:
Who gains the most from Walker’s exit?

It’s not who you think. The candidates who will benefit are the ones who have put themselves in position to capitalize on Walker’s exit. I look for the candidates who have shown commitment to Iowa by campaigning aggressively in Iowa to benefit the most. I think this helps a guy like Rick Santorum – first, because it helps him get on the main debate stage, and also because he also has a similar blue-collar message as Walker. It could also help Mike Huckabee, who, like Santorum, has a populist message and a campaign that is focused on rural support in Iowa.

Most people will expect that Walker’s exit should help candidates like Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and maybe a conservative like Ted Cruz. The problem is that those campaigns have yet to fully engage in Iowa. The reason you need to campaign aggressively in Iowa is because you never know when and where your opportunity will come.

Rubio has yet to even campaign in places like Dubuque or Waterloo, let alone smaller communities in northeast Iowa where Walker was likely stronger due to the proximity of Wisconsin to that part of the state. The last time Cruz held an actual campaign event in the area was April 1st. Bush has yet to really campaign aggressively in Iowa, but his campaign has done a better job than Rubio and Cruz in getting around the state.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 23, 2015 11:43 pm 
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Huckabee is not one of the candidates this blogger expects to exit the race any time soon.

Predicting Next Republicans to Exit the Race
Chris Weigant
Political writer and blogger at ChrisWeigant.com
Posted: 09/23/2015 8:30 pm EDT

Quote:
Obviously, I was flat wrong, except for that bit about crusades. More on that in a moment. I picked the following as the first five Republicans to exit the race: Jim Gilmore, George Pataki, Lindsey Graham, Rick Santorum and Bobby Jindal. What I failed to realize was the nature of the different campaigns that are out there -- whether successful or not. There are serious politicians running for president who care about their future in politics, and then there are others who either already have a secure political future or have no political future whatsoever. In either of those last two cases, calculations about future political careers don't really apply to the decision to get out of an unwinnable contest. In both cases -- secure political future or no political future -- there's not much to lose by staying in, to put it another way.

Even with all the money pouring into politics after the Citizens United case, there is still supposed to be a dividing line between actual campaign organizations and super PACs. There are some things that super PACs are not allowed to pay for -- although even these limits are going to be tested in this campaign by various candidates. Even so, things like renting an office, paying staff who schedule appearances and plan the campaign, traveling to and from those appearances and all the other mundane nuts-and-bolts costs of campaigning absolutely must be paid for by the official campaign and not super PACs. This is why even with millions in a super PAC's bank account, Rick Perry and Scott Walker found it increasingly hard to pay their staff.

This only matters, of course, if a candidate is running a serious campaign for the presidency. It absolutely does not matter for candidates who never had a chance in the first place. If you're running just to see your name on the ballot, then it is irrelevant whether you even have any campaign appearances or staff. Likewise, if you're running on some personal crusade for an individual issue, you are likely not going to be stopped by having no money -- your cause is so great, you'll keep going no matter what happens, because you see the issue as larger than yourself.

With this in mind, let's try to predict who could leave the race next. To do so, I'm first going to divide the candidates up into three groups: vanity campaigns, crusaders and serious candidates. On that last one, by "serious" I mean the attitude of the candidate, and not how popular or successful any particular campaign currently is (just to be clear).


Read complete blog post here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-weigant/predicting-next-republica_b_8186674.html


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 17, 2015 8:07 pm 
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No more angry Bobby Jindal to kick around now, he's suspending his campaign. This is potentially good news for Huck, especially in Iowa where Jindal was polling around 5%.

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2015 8:51 am 
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goalieman wrote:
No more angry Bobby Jindal to kick around now, he's suspending his campaign. This is potentially good news for Huck, especially in Iowa where Jindal was polling around 5%.


Yes. I hope so. Especially since Jindal ran as a "serious" candidate and not on hype alone as the likes of Cruz and Trump.

The authors of this article think that Cruz will benefit from Jindal's exit. I hope that is not so:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/11/18/jindals_exit_underscores_tough_year_for_governors.html#2

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