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PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2009 11:15 pm 
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In other words, bring on the contenders, because VanderPlaats will probably win with his core supporters.


http://www.siouxcityjournal.com/app/blo ... ng/?p=1482
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Deeth nails it on Vander Plaats
Blasted John Deeth, beating me to the punch with a post of plentious sagacity. Iowa City-based Deeth not only has his original JohnDeethBlog site, but lately he’s moved onto periodic posts for The Des Moines Register. Two nights ago in handling what I’m hoping (please!) is my last time raking leaves in 2009, my mind went to 2010 gubernatorial politics and the Republican field. I was thinking how if the large GOP field isn’t settled by the June primary, Bob Vander Plaats would be the favorite in a special convention to pick the nominee.

I dawdled on that topic for a post, but Deeth laid that thought out similarly here. Give it a read, I’m essentially in agreement. As said in this blog previously, in his third attempt in running for governor, Vander Plaats enjoys a strong constituency of supporters who won’t want to move to another candidate. I’ll put that at 30 percent, perhaps 35 percent, that the Sioux City management consultant can lock-it-in count on. I don’t believe any other candidate, Terry Branstad included, has such a rabid core of supporters.

There could be a field of three or four from among Vander Plaats, Branstad, Chris Rants, Jerry Behn, Christian Fong and Rod Roberts still going come June, and if the primary doesn’t result in one of the candidates amassing the 35 percent threshold in the primary, I posit that Vander Plaats would have the advantage in the convention. Vander Plaats might want to hope for the biggest field possible to ensure no one gets 35 percent in the primary. On the other hand, the smaller the field, the more likely it is that someone like Branstad or Rants could squeak out a 36-to-38 percent win.

These special conventions are rare but interesting, as evidenced by the summer 2002 event in Denison that included horsetrading before then-State Sen. Steve King emerged with the Iowa 5th District Congressional GOP nod.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2009 11:42 pm 
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Wait...you're telling me that there are no runoffs in Iowa? So the corrupt, crony Iowa Republican Party could steal it away in the back rooms of a convention?


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 13, 2009 10:51 am 
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BDBopper wrote:
Wait...you're telling me that there are no runoffs in Iowa? So the corrupt, crony Iowa Republican Party could steal it away in the back rooms of a convention?


My understanding is that if no single candidate gets 35% of the vote, it's determined by conventions.

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 13, 2009 2:47 pm 
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Yes, it is decided at convention but it will be advantage grassroots. Last year's convention saw the incumbent national committeeman and committeewoman thown out of power for the grassroots candidates. Believe me, we are well aware of the possibility of a convention to decide our gubernatorial candidate and plans are being made. We will invade the 2010 caucuses in order to become delegates to the convention that will ultimately decide the gubernatorial nominee if it comes to that.

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 13, 2009 2:58 pm 
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Do they already have a date for that possible convention?


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 13, 2009 3:44 pm 
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BDBopper wrote:
Do they already have a date for that possible convention?


I couldn't find anything on it. In 2008 it was in June.

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