I agree with you - I really think if there were sufficient time left, Medina could easily take it. If only she had jumped in sooner! But, like I said, pushing it to a runoff still sends the politics-as-usual crowd a strong message -- and hopefully this will give Medina a higher profile so that she will have a bigger role in politics in the future! So even looking at the "worst case" scenario, it's still been an effective & worthwhile effort, IMO!

My origional prediction:



Some here were skeptical, and even had me doubting ever so little, about my predictions being too optimistic.
Well, it's only February 9 and Debra is already at 24% to KBH's 28%
To the disagreement of some, I predicted she would be at 25% on February 16.
I would say my prediction that she is on track to overtake KBH for the run-off is holding so far.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_TX_209.pdf

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"If you analyze it I believe the very heart and soul of conservatism is libertarianism." ~ Ronald Reagan


You say "Conspiracy Theorist"?? Call me Agenda Analyst.

From your keyboard to God's ear, melopa! I forwarded the poll results to everyone I know in TX earlier today. Let's keep praying for that miracle!

I Will keep praying for that miracle in Texas. Debra seems like "the real deal". We also need another miracle in PA where we have a big-government liberal Dem. Governor who will probably being challenged by a status-quo Republican unless we can get our candidate in a better situation to compete in the primary. We are supporting State Representative Sam Rohrer, a pro-life socially conservative Christian, who I actually met several years ago while visiting a friend's Baptist church.

_________________
"If you analyze it I believe the very heart and soul of conservatism is libertarianism." ~ Ronald Reagan


You say "Conspiracy Theorist"?? Call me Agenda Analyst.

Three considerations:

1.) Perry's numbers appear stable. All the movement appears to be shifts within the "Not Perry" vote not a decline in Perry's favorable position.

2.) Palin's endorsement of Perry is an interesting development in that it makes it harder for Medina to ride the "unified" outsider/tea party bandwagon when grand marshall Palin is riding up front with Perry in the convertible.

3.) Races with three or more candidates are notoriously difficult to poll. Here's one gem from the recent past from the same firm PPP:



http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com ... s-big.html

_________________
"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes

My hunch is the talk of "nullification and interposition" is political red-meat demagoguery, like Perry's "secession" remark. Like Pat Buchanan's peasants with pitchforks. There is a viable fight against the Feds., and that of course is in court.

However, I can't help but think the Medina candidacy is a good thing, on balance. If She wins she won't actually "do" some of the more extreme things. She likely would risk impeachment -- I suspect even in Texas. And, if she loses the primary but pulls Perry to the right he will probably govern tolerably, even if lacking inspiration.

And, even if Bill White is narrowly elected in conservative Texas how much damage could he do?

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'If you drive God out of the world then you create a howling wilderness' --Peter Hitchens

Some of the pundits reporting on this say Perry is losing support. RCP does compare polls by different people. Whether that is accurate or not I don't know but they run the list of all polls together and compare +/-.

Another interesting thing to look at is facebook traffic/fan additions as well as google trends on searches. Medina has exploded on both. She's far surpassed KBH on fb. In a 24 hour period yesterday, Medina picked up 441 fans & Perry 73. In this past 24 hour period, Medina picked up 669 fans and Perry gained 166. That is up from the past few days, perhaps a bump from the Palin visit. He is at 22,059 fans while Medina has been increasing rapidly to 17,101 (as of midnight). People who are better with numbers than I am have predicted she'll overtake him before the primary but I think even sooner.

I found her interviews with Judge Napolitano on Freedom Watch quite insightful. She'll be on Glenn Beck's radio show in the morning. Beck pushed Texas economy on tv as doing great but he didn't do his homework. We have a surplus because Perry used the stimulus money to pay regular bills & wasted a bunch of it on contract payoffs to buddies. We are facing serious budget shortfalls in 2011. Now for 2 days on the radio Beck has been asking why Perry comes across as so great but then governs a different way. He's starting to see that Perry is great at campaigning but then....does a John McCain. It will be interesting to see what happens after her interview with Beck. He refused to even say her name for months. His manager said she was not national news. Right after that he has Fiorina & DeVore on. Then Medina is invited.

Another interesting thing I've found is how far apart the posts are spread on his fb page. The first 5 posts you see on his wall are 7 hours apart, during the high traffic time of evening. Medina's sight has posts constantly & the past 2 days new posts are added every few minutes (except in wee hours). Perry doesn't allow any issue related questions to stay posted. They get deleted.

Medina did just receive an endorsement from Independent Texans (5 million members). She had to get over 60% approval from members to get the endorsement. A conservative republican party arm did not endorse anyone. Kay got no votes on the floor. Neither Medina nor Perry could get 2/3 of the vote so they withheld the endorsement. So it is an interesting fight to say the least. She has also picked up on donations. Nothing near the $50mil Kay/Perry will spend. She's gotten less than $1mil. But like Huckabee, she is getting bang for her buck.

Reading the comment sections after news articles has been entertaining & eye-opening. Palin has angered a lot of people by supporting McCain & Perry. Others are thrilled. But people are starting to question her motives & judgment. There is definitely a split in disenchanted voters. Some think that the GOP is trying to take over the tea party movement & continue to not really listen to the people. The debates are certainly lively. The papers are all liberal but it's amazing to see the deluge of positive comments about Medina across the state. I know it isn't statistical, but she consistently wins polls online from state sites.

Of course they are. America is a two-party country. Not by law, but by disposition. If a movement arises (right or left, or otherwise) it will either be co-opted by one of the major parties, or it will replace one of the major parties. Either way, when all is said and done, there will just two major parties.

Why?

Because very few Americans, even the most ideological can tolerate longterm irrelevance. Most people have "principles", which is to say, few would admit to "having no principles", but one principle that virtually all Americans possess is common sense practicality.

We all have the issues which move us into political action. And, because they have moved us into action, we have little tolerance for political groups which have little chance of making progress. But, by all appearances seem content to stay on the margins and wallow in purest ideology. As Americans we want results.

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'If you drive God out of the world then you create a howling wilderness' --Peter Hitchens

Did anyone listen to the Beck interview? According to the Beck newsletter Medina is a 9/11 truther.

Here's the quote:



http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2010/02/11 ... 8396.shtml

She has since tried to walk back the statement, but I don't think she will be able to because I think it probably reflects both her own and a large number of her core backer's views.

Note the use of "publicly questioning" in her reply. By adding the modifier "publicly" to "I have not been out there questioning," she creates an escape clause in the statement that allows her "private" view of the matter to remain unclear.

The second largest state in the Union and the choices are Perry, KBH, or Medina.

For the first time I'm genuinely sorry for Texas.

May God Bless Texas.

_________________
"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes

I remember Palin flubbing several interviews but she was given chances to walk it back or to clarify. I also remember how Beck treated Huckabee. Beck decided he didn't like him & then Beck refused, even to this day, to listen to any truth about him. I am disappointed in how Medina handled the interview but more so in how Beck did. He has been pushing Perry for weeks so he was trying to go after her. That disappoints me deeply as he doesn't live here & doesn't know what Perry is like.

She does have supporters who are truthers. She has far more who are not. I am not. But I think it is treasonous for me to deny someone the right to question the government or to believe what they want. We are not free if we deny that right, but we do not have to agree with any opinion either.

That said, here is her statement. I hope that people will make up their own minds in an objective manner. That is the same hope that I had in supporting Huckabee in all he faced.
http://www.medinafortexas.com/getPost?p=272

Hotair has the video clip of this and a discussion:

http://hotair.com/archives/2010/02/11/h ... 1-truther/

Here is the video:

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ConservTexan

http://ilikemikehuckabee2012.blogspot.com/

The public's response to Buffoon-in-Chief Beck:
Nearly $50,000.00 in donations.
On normal days she scarcely averages one or two thousand dollars.
Maybe Glenn will someday understand what blowback is.
Beck =Judas goat. Beware Mike! Don't trust him.

Or on second thought...
Beck's antics may be helpful with fundraising..

_________________
"If you analyze it I believe the very heart and soul of conservatism is libertarianism." ~ Ronald Reagan


You say "Conspiracy Theorist"?? Call me Agenda Analyst.

Here is what Glen Beck might have heard if he did not proceed to hang up on her and then go into attacking her without her even being able to respond.



Scarcely an hour after the Beck interview, robo calls went out from the Perry Campaign. Could there have been collusion? Beck came as close to endorsing Rick Perry as he is allowed to.

_________________
"If you analyze it I believe the very heart and soul of conservatism is libertarianism." ~ Ronald Reagan


You say "Conspiracy Theorist"?? Call me Agenda Analyst.

Wow, my opinion of Beck just hit a new low. I thought Medina's explanation in that followup radio interview sounded reasonable (better than her campaign statement, too - she needs to revise it).

The cynic in me believes that she was trying to couch her response in a way that would not offend those who are supporting her who believe in this.

Perry is going to mine this for all he can - hope it backfires on him. A lot will depend on how much & what kind of news coverage this gets I imagine.

My biggest concern about Medina at this point is her "greenness" to the political games & garbage and how that would affect her ability to govern effectively.

I understand your misgivings, Southern Doc, but I'd like to see "Mrs. Smith" go to Austin anyway! God knows best, though, so I'll just continue to ask Him to grant what's best for Texas!

Glenn Beck is becoming a real jerk!! He blind sided Debra Medina with the truther question and accused her of being one he didn't even let her explain her position. Then he hung up on her joking said I ended her career. This woman would make a grat Governor of Texas and if I lived there I would vote for her. I hope Gov. Huckabee would have her on his show I think he would give her alot more respect than this jerk Beck does.

Mike Church interviews Debra on his satellite radio show.
To be fair, this guy is a big Medina supporter. And--
Beck appears to be a Rick Perry guy.

http://www.mikechurch.com/Public-Transcripts/debra-medina-still-texas-bright-star.html

_________________
"If you analyze it I believe the very heart and soul of conservatism is libertarianism." ~ Ronald Reagan


You say "Conspiracy Theorist"?? Call me Agenda Analyst.

Yes, I think that is probably right. I think this is not an issue which has been a focus of her personal study, but I suspect she senses there are supporters of hers who have their doubts and she doesn't want to offend them unnecessarily.

On the other side, extending the cynicism a little further, this looks like this was a set up by Beck to submarine Medina on behalf of Perry.

_________________
'If you drive God out of the world then you create a howling wilderness' --Peter Hitchens

I think you're too hard on yourself. I don't think you are being at all cynical about Medina, just skeptical. And you should because she is not particularly well known. That was her strength in an anti-incumbent time such as this, but it is also her weakness when she makes a clear error.

And this is a clear error.

It is not enough to blame Beck or her opponents, this is the major leagues and if she can't dodge or foul-off a brush-back pitch she's got no business thinking she'll succeed in Austin.

I can certainly agree with the notion that Beck was gunning for her and set a trap. Yet, unlike many here apparently, I do think her first response was genuine and reveals something of her political views, and those of a group of core supporters she is clearly wanting to retain.

I have a very difficult time seeing any context in which Mike would say about the idea that the Federal government was involved in 9-11 the folowing:

"I think some very good questions have been raised in that regard, there are some very good arguments."

I heard Medina's follow-up interview in which she asserts that she simply wanted to defend the people's right to question the government and that recent events have heightened the suspicion of average voters in all things in which the government has a hand or stake.

I don't believe her explanation. She realized too late that her statement was politically toxic, and is now spinning to obscure her obvious sympathy with 9-11 conspiracy theory and/or theorists. That may make me a cynic about her but I just can't imagine anyone making the first statement she made without believing at some level that a 9-11 conspiracy occurred or was possible. That to me is not open mindedness, it is dangerous.

I can not see any context that would excuse an American politician who when asked:

Do you doubt that Nazi Germany systematically murdered 6,000,000 Jews?

"I think some very good questions have been raised in that regard, there are some very good arguments"

Even given the "set-up" by Beck, you just don't say something like that unless you are far from the center of American politics. The Beck trap also begs a question, "why did he choose 9-11, and why did she walk right into it?" "Why were the KBH and Perry camps waiting for her to take the bait?" I would suggest that it is a logical conclusion that they acted on this because there was strong opposition research to suggest the Medina is a truther, or would not want disavow it.

Either of those would make her a non-starter with me as I place the 9-11 conspiracy right on par with Holocaust denial.

Regardless, Medina was an unknown candidate which meant her candidacy operated on a very narrow margin of trust with the voters she needs. Some of that margin was eroded over the "interposition and nullification" issue (which still floor me personally) but she was able to make that sound like it was just excessive rhetoric. This latest issue though will be compounded onto the earlier suspicion that her views are extreme.

If that is "unfair" and not her true identity, then her trouble is a cautionary tale of why any individual who wishes to be in a major position of public trust (and governor of Texas certainly is that) should guard their choice of words, avoid overtly inflammatory rhetoric like "interposition and nullification," and be mindful they will be judged by the company they keep.

_________________
"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes

Beck is a strong Romney supporter and Perry was critical of Gov. Mike Huckabee when he ran for President. I wouldn't be surprised that Mitt is behind the scenes of this and there is talk of Rick Perry is going to run for President. I'm wondering he would run as the conservative canadate in the GOP primaries and do a Fred Thompson on Gov. Huckabee in South Carolinia and split the Social conservative vote and Mitt wins ala McCain in South Carolinia and Perry helps Mitt win the nomination by having Perry split Social Conservative vote With Gov. Huckabee down south especially. Then Mitt puts Rick on the ticket because he need a southerner to win in the south. I wouldn't put anything behind these Charletons that run the party. If Medina doesn't make the runoff I hope Kay Bailey Hutchinson wins it would blow up there divious plan.
I don't trust Rick Perry as far as I can throw him along with Beck and Sarah Palin for that matter. The establishment don't like Gov. Mike Huckabee or Cong. Ron Paul. We need to form a coalition!!!