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Vander Plaats may have a chance at upset
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Author:  GrannyT [ Tue Jun 01, 2010 9:10 am ]
Post subject:  Vander Plaats may have a chance at upset

Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Branstad under 50%
Terry Branstad served as Governor of Iowa for four terms. Bob Vander Plaats' only experience with political office has been losing campaigns for it. But fueled by support from conservatives and an anti-establishment environment Vander Plaats appears to at least have a chance at pulling a big upset in next week's primary. Branstad currently stands at a surprisingly low 46%, followed by Vander Plaats at 31% and Rod Roberts at 13%.

The race is particularly tight among the conservative voters who have been giving GOP establishment candidates fits across the country so far in 2010. With them Branstad leads Vander Plaats only 41-35. He expands his overall lead thanks to a 58-19 advantage with moderates.

Among voters that actually know who Vander Plaats is- whether they see him favorably or unfavorably- he leads Branstad 42-37. The question is if there's enough time left for Vander Plaats to completely make up the huge gap in name recognition he began the campaign with. 79% of voters have an opinion of Branstad, with it breaking down positively by a 59/20 margin. Meanwhile only 66% have an opinion of Vander Plaats with 47% seeing him favorably to 19% unfavorably.

There are very clear age divisions in the race. It's tied among voters under 45, who may not even remember Branstad's time as Governor. But he's up 55-20 with senior citizens, who are certainly likely to remember his tenure, and that's fueling most of his overall victory.

Branstad still has to be seen as the favorite but the race has shaped up closer than expected and it's one worth keeping an eye on in the final week.

Full results here

Author:  justgrace [ Tue Jun 01, 2010 9:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Vander Plaats may have a chance at upset

Let's pray. Are there phone banks, etc. that we could help?

Author:  Steadfast [ Tue Jun 01, 2010 10:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Vander Plaats may have a chance at upset

With BVP doing better than Brandstadt with voters who know him, I would think that Chuck Norris' visit this week will help BVP in terms of name recognition in these final days.

Author:  janelles [ Tue Jun 01, 2010 11:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Vander Plaats may have a chance at upset

I have not met many people of any age who support Terry B. Voters I have meet believe that he has had his chance to govern and it is time for someone else!

And, I agree with Chuck coming to Iowa and what this event will mean to BVP.

This week I am posting Chuck Norris ism's on my face book page and having lots of fun doing so!

Author:  Iowans Rock [ Tue Jun 01, 2010 3:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Vander Plaats may have a chance at upset

After taking a close look at this poll I am very motivated! Reasons? It comes down to getting Bob's name out there because it looks like if voters are familiar with Bob they will vote for him over Branstad. Remember, this poll was taken almost two weeks before the primary so here is why I am optimistic.

1. This poll was taken when Bob just started to air his first ad (1-3 days prior) and it was not full blown yet. His second ad about illegal immigration started airing the last day of polling and was not full blown yet. Starting yesterday or today both of the tv ads are full blown the whole week before the primary.

2. The campaign will also be doing select radio advertising and robocalling.

3. CHUCK NORRIS doing statewide rallies the weekend before the primary. FREE ADVERTISING.

4. Unlike us political junkies, people are just starting to pay attention that maybe weren't during the polling period.

5. Bob ties Branstad with voters under 45, and younger voters tend not to have land line phones so a lot of Bob's supporters may not have been polled.

6. Likely Iowa primary voters were polled but a lot of Bob's support is coming from people who left the party and Independents who will not register as a Republican until the day of the primary. Also, Bob's support is coming from people who may not have voted in primaries before. That means none of these people were polled.

7. Voter turnout. Bob's supporters are just itching to pull the lever for him and Branstad's supporter view voting as an obligation with no enthusiasm. All the people polled who are supporting Bob will turn out. We have no idea how many of Branstad's will feel the motivation to get out and vote. A nice crappy Iowa rainy day on June 8 will be perfect for Bob.

8. Momentum and environment is in Bob's favor.

9. Hoffman +17 :wink:

Author:  Steadfast [ Tue Jun 01, 2010 6:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Vander Plaats may have a chance at upset

Thanks for the encouragement Lori! Go BVP!!!

Author:  Iowans Rock [ Wed Jun 02, 2010 10:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Vander Plaats may have a chance at upset

I have an odd request or perhaps not so odd. There is one of Bob's county chairs who is working her butt off in her county which is in a Branstad area and she is in desperate need of help to contact voters in her area.

Do not feel obligated to do this but if any of you would like to do any phone calling for her just PM me with you mailing address and I'll have her send you a phone list of registered Republicans in her county that should get to you Friday or Saturday if I get a response by the time the last mail leaves tomorrow or perhaps the list could be overnighted.

I understand if nobody wants to do this but I thought I would just throw it out there.


Author:  ConservTexan [ Fri Jun 04, 2010 11:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Vander Plaats may have a chance at upset

Here is a link to a video of Chuck Norris talking about campaigning for Bob Vander Plaats:

Can a multi-stop campaign throughout the state with some star power help push Vander Platts to victory ? Watch here.. ... the-trail/

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