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PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2011 7:58 pm 
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I know there are a few of the chosen folk - Texans - on the forum so I thought we might have a thread for our senate race.

It got more interesting over the past few days when Dan Patrick said he's forming an exploratory committee.

Michael Williams, former RR Commissioner, former prosecutor, worked in Reagan and Bush 41 administrations. My guess is he'll probably be the favorite of HA as I see there was a thread about him previously.

Ted Cruz. "Prior to serving as [Texas'] Solicitor General, Ted served as the Director of the Office of Policy Planning at the Federal Trade Commission, an Associate Deputy Attorney General at the U.S. Department of Justice, and Domestic Policy Advisor on the 2000 Bush-Cheney campaign. In addition, Ted clerked for Chief Justice William Rehnquist on the U.S. Supreme Court. He was the first Hispanic ever to have clerked for the Chief Justice of the United States."
Cruz will the DC beltway establishment's pick for this race.
Here's a glowing review from NR when they though he'd run for TX AG: http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/ ... ger?page=1
Son of Cuban immigrants, apparently he's a great debater, Princeton, Harvard Law, Harvard Law Review, yadda yadda yadda. I think he'd be a great senator in a lot of ways. Texas's version of Marco Rubio, kind of. :) Will he be able to overcome Dewhurst's name ID and in-state power?

David Dewhurst. Probably the intra-state establishment favorite. Incumbent Lieutenant Governor. Decent guy, generally. Will his fund raising ability outweigh the passion behind Williams or the resume and abilities of Cruz?

If Dan Patrick gets in: conservative talk show host, State Senator, has a good following in Houston.

Tom Leppert, former mayor of the Big D; I don't see any reason to support this guy. National Review interview with him here, http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/ ... ian-bolduc

Others: Roger Williams (former TX Sec. of State), Elizabeth Ames Jones (also former RR Comm., I think). The poll below is the first I'd seen McCaul mentioned as a possibility, but he's a Congressman representing north/west Houston all the way to east Austin.

Poll
Dewhurst 25.0%, Williams M. 6.0%, Leppert 4.0%, McCaul 4.0%, Williams 2.0%, Cruz 2.0%, Jones 1.0%
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/polls/19386

If the grassroots conservative base splits between Cruz, M. Williams, and Patrick does that ensure victory for Dewhurst? I hope Perry quits or something (:lol:) so that Dewhurst can run for governor instead (ideally, Abbott also runs for gov. and beats Dewhurst), so that we'll have either Sen. Michael Williams or Sen. Ted Cruz come January 2013, not to mention Gov. Abbott! Now, in reality...

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THE TIMES are nightfall, look, their light grows less;
The times are winter, watch, a world undone:
They waste, they wither worse; they as they run
Or bring more or more blazon man’s distress.
And I not help. Nor word now of success:
All is from wreck, here, there, to rescue one—
Work which to see scarce so much as begun
Makes welcome death, does dear forgetfulness.
Or what is else? There is your world within.
There rid the dragons, root out there the sin.
Your will is law in that small commonweal…
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PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2011 8:55 pm 
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Texas Tribune has a page listing what they see as potential candidates with the level of their likelihood to run or not. http://www.texastribune.org/library/dat ... ates-2012/

Here's the Republicans they mention

AG Greg Abbott, Low likelihood
On YNN's "Capitol Tonight" show, he said, "My focus is not on the next election." When asked if he was ruling out a run for Hutchison's seat, he said, "The only thing I'm ruling in is the work I'm doing for the state of Texas."

George Prescott Bush (son of Jeb): Low likelihood
"All I am prepared to say is that I am currently on military orders in my capacity as a Naval Reservist," he told the Tribune in an e-mail. "Because of my responsibilities with the military I cannot comment at this time."

Ted Cruz: High likelihood
A Republican source says the former solicitor general, who hoped to run for attorney general in 2010, is "strongly considering" a run.

Lt Gov David Dewhurst: High
"... I fully intend to explore running for the United States Senate ..."

The Incumbent! (Kay Bailey): Low
"Should we believe [that she's retiring] this time? The veteran senator has said she would resign before, promising numerous times during her 2010 run for governor that she would step down. Should we believe her this time? The veteran senator has said she would resign before, promising numerous times during her 2010 run for governor that she would step down. She promised not to seek a third term and then ran in 2006. But since she isn't seeking any other office and has long told her friends and colleagues that she wants to return home to Texas, we're inclined to trust her."

Craig James (ESPN, former SMU running back): Medium
"I'm not going to give you a yes or no."

Elizabeth Ames Jones (RR Commissioner): High
"I look forward to an aggressive, spirited campaign on the issues. I will bring fresh leadership to the Senate and lead the fight to create good new jobs, stop runaway spending and stand up for our Texas values in Washington."

Tom Leppert: Medium (I think the Tribune compiled this awhile ago, because Leppert is already out there campaigning!)


Gov Perry: Low
"While Hutchison certainly expressed interest in his seat, he has never done the same for hers."

State Sen. Florence Shapiro: Medium
"The former Plano mayor and longtime state senator has plenty of clout in Austin and public policy chops, and she started a committee back in 2008 to seek this U.S. Senate seat. But she folded it when it was clear Hutchison would stay put. Now it's an open question whether Shapiro will give the job another shot."

Michael Williams: High
"He's definitely running."

Roger Williams: High
"We announced in January 2009, and regardless of who was in or not, we've never stopped campaigning since then."


My only comment on all that is that it's only a matter of time before George P Bush runs for something in Texas. I think he's got the sharpness of Jeb, and maybe that he's half Mexican could continue the important task of nudging more hispanics in this state to be open to the party/conservatism. My guess is he begins to get more visibly involved in 2014, 2016 or 2018. As the above indicates, however, there are too many Republicans in statewide politics in Texas, so it's hard to see where he nudges in.. AG maybe? We need to export some of these folks to Delaware, NY, etc.

_________________
THE TIMES are nightfall, look, their light grows less;
The times are winter, watch, a world undone:
They waste, they wither worse; they as they run
Or bring more or more blazon man’s distress.
And I not help. Nor word now of success:
All is from wreck, here, there, to rescue one—
Work which to see scarce so much as begun
Makes welcome death, does dear forgetfulness.
Or what is else? There is your world within.
There rid the dragons, root out there the sin.
Your will is law in that small commonweal…
G.M. Hopkins.


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PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2011 9:10 pm 
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A PPP poll with a 4.9 percent margin of error from January of this year had:

Dewhurst as the preferred Senate nominee of 23% of Republican primary voters, just
ahead of Paul’s 21%, with Abbott at 14%, Rep. Joe Barton at 7%, Elizabeth Ames Jones at 6%, Tom Leppert, Michael Williams, and former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz at 3% apiece, and former Secretary of State Roger Williams at 1%, with 19% undecided.

Of course we know Dr. Paul has since decided against running for the Senate, he will never be as competitive in a Presidential run as he was in this race.
Is PPP an accurate polling company?

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 04, 2011 7:17 pm 
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melopa wrote:
A PPP poll with a 4.9 percent margin of error from January of this year had:

Dewhurst as the preferred Senate nominee of 23% of Republican primary voters, just
ahead of Paul’s 21%, with Abbott at 14%, Rep. Joe Barton at 7%, Elizabeth Ames Jones at 6%, Tom Leppert, Michael Williams, and former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz at 3% apiece, and former Secretary of State Roger Williams at 1%, with 19% undecided.

Of course we know Dr. Paul has since decided against running for the Senate, he will never be as competitive in a Presidential run as he was in this race.
Is PPP an accurate polling company?


I'm not sure about PPP generally, but it's not totally implausible that Paul has that much support. His name ID is as high as it gets (probably higher than Abbott, I bet), and those who support him know they do and they're not gonna support anyone else.

So if he wanted to run for senate, he'd have a clear path to win: hold onto the 20% he has (while picking up some from Abbott and Barton since they're not running) and hope that some of the Dewhurst name ID voters switch to Cruz and Williams (or Patrick if he gets in), and all the undecideds split evenly amongst the other candidates.

Now that I think about it, I don't know why he wouldn't run for senate instead of president. There's a much stronger paleolibertarian/whatever streak in the Texas electorate than in the national electorate.

_________________
THE TIMES are nightfall, look, their light grows less;
The times are winter, watch, a world undone:
They waste, they wither worse; they as they run
Or bring more or more blazon man’s distress.
And I not help. Nor word now of success:
All is from wreck, here, there, to rescue one—
Work which to see scarce so much as begun
Makes welcome death, does dear forgetfulness.
Or what is else? There is your world within.
There rid the dragons, root out there the sin.
Your will is law in that small commonweal…
G.M. Hopkins.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 06, 2011 8:59 pm 
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Robert P. George endorsed Ted Cruz today. Endorsements rarely ever factor into my considerations, but I can't ignore this one since it comes from Robert George, a man of many commitments and accolades, but perhaps most popularly he's one of the scholars behind the Manhattan Declaration.

Here's what he wrote about Cruz:

"I ordinarily don't endorse candidates or use my Facebook page to promote them, but I want to make an exception for a very special case. Ted Cruz, a former student of mine at Princeton, is seeking the Republican nomination for the United States Senate from Texas. Ted distinguished himself academically at Princeton then went on to do the same at Harvard Law School. He clerked for Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist, then served in the U.S. Department of Justice and practiced law with a major firm. From 2003 to 2008 he served as Solicitor General of Texas. Ted is the son of a Cuban immigrant who came to this country with scarcely a dime in his pocket. Ted understands that America is, and must always be, a land of freedom and opportunity. He is a dedicated defender of our nation's sovereignty and security. He deeply believes in our civilization's highest principles. He doesn't merely talk the talk, he walks the walk, by boldly standing up for the values that really matter: government that is limited in its scope, but strong and effective within its proper sphere; the rule of law and the protection of constituitonal rights and liberties; private initiative and personal responsibility; the autonomy and authority of our vital institutions of civil society---those "little platoons" that are so crucial to the transmission of virtue and the care of our fellow citizens in need; the sanctity of human life in all stages and conditions; the dignity of marriage as the conjugal union of husband and wife; and religious freedom and the rights of conscience. I'm sure that there are several worthy candidates running for the Senate from Texas. But I'm pulling strongly for Ted Cruz. As his former teacher, and longtime friend, I know what he stands for and what he is made of. He is the real deal. I'm immensely proud of him."

_________________
THE TIMES are nightfall, look, their light grows less;
The times are winter, watch, a world undone:
They waste, they wither worse; they as they run
Or bring more or more blazon man’s distress.
And I not help. Nor word now of success:
All is from wreck, here, there, to rescue one—
Work which to see scarce so much as begun
Makes welcome death, does dear forgetfulness.
Or what is else? There is your world within.
There rid the dragons, root out there the sin.
Your will is law in that small commonweal…
G.M. Hopkins.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 07, 2011 1:11 am 
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Wow, that is a surprising and - for me at least - powerful endorsement. I was leaning towards Michael Williams, but I will look at Cruz more carefully.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 07, 2011 1:18 pm 
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QuoVadisAnima wrote:
Wow, that is a surprising and - for me at least - powerful endorsement. I was leaning towards Michael Williams, but I will look at Cruz more carefully.


Yup, I'm in the exact same boat.

_________________
THE TIMES are nightfall, look, their light grows less;
The times are winter, watch, a world undone:
They waste, they wither worse; they as they run
Or bring more or more blazon man’s distress.
And I not help. Nor word now of success:
All is from wreck, here, there, to rescue one—
Work which to see scarce so much as begun
Makes welcome death, does dear forgetfulness.
Or what is else? There is your world within.
There rid the dragons, root out there the sin.
Your will is law in that small commonweal…
G.M. Hopkins.


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 22, 2011 11:34 am 
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Well things are easier now that Michael Williams won't run for Senate:

"For several months now, I had the honor of running a campaign for the United States Senate. We have had many successes, despite a growing field of good Republican candidates.

But as I told my friends at the Tarrant County Republican Party Ronald Reagan Dinner on Friday night, I have recently decided to transition our campaign to a race for U.S. Congress.

Donna and I have lived in Arlington, Texas for nearly twenty years since returning home from Washington after working for Presidents Reagan and Bush. Our home has been drawn into one of the four new congressional districts, CD33. The district is anchored by Arlington and includes Parker County, and parts of Wise and Tarrant counties. My parents live here as does Donna’s mother. We love Arlington and are proud to call it home. And I hope to have the opportunity to represent my family and neighbors in Congress."

Smart move. Ted Cruz has all the momentum, and now all the conservative grassroots can unify behind one candidate.

_________________
THE TIMES are nightfall, look, their light grows less;
The times are winter, watch, a world undone:
They waste, they wither worse; they as they run
Or bring more or more blazon man’s distress.
And I not help. Nor word now of success:
All is from wreck, here, there, to rescue one—
Work which to see scarce so much as begun
Makes welcome death, does dear forgetfulness.
Or what is else? There is your world within.
There rid the dragons, root out there the sin.
Your will is law in that small commonweal…
G.M. Hopkins.


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 22, 2011 3:28 pm 
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Miserere wrote:
Smart move. Ted Cruz has all the momentum, and now all the conservative grassroots can unify behind one candidate.

I've had a Michael Williams perpetual thread going for quite some time, because he has been in the race longer than anyone: viewtopic.php?f=144&t=15623&p=213461#p213461

But, I agree the handwriting is on the wall. The Conservative literati is lining up behind Cruz, and this will put Williams out on his own (not unlike Huckabee I might add). But, transitioning to this House race is smart politics.

Quote:
viewtopic.php?p=130046#p130046
In 2008 I wrote in HA forum:

Quote:
Some of the past black candidates have tried (and were encouraged) for high profile office before they had earned their dues in the party. (Now, some might think that is petty, but often that is the way it seems to work.) A case in point would be Lynn Swan --who tried to win the Gov. of PA office primarily based on his celebrity, and his Christian identity.

Following that, Swan declined to run for a U.S. House seat. Now, there may be reasons why he wouldn't especially want to be in the House, but... if he would like to aspire to a political career, the House, in my view, would seem to be the best place for him to start.

Right now blacks are suspicious of the Republican party. So, while it is ok to run conservative black Republicans in majority black districts, I would like to see a strategy (by the grass roots, not [necessarily the] RNC) of running conservative evangelical candidates (or Roman Catholics like Williams and Steele) --who happen to be of African descent-- run in very conservative majority white districts (the J.C. Watts model).

The reason is, they could be supported and championed by religious conservatives based on their stands on abortion, same-sex marriage, and other SoCon issues. It would help immensely if such candidates were also viewed favorably by the rotary club Republicans -- that is, if they had a background in business (or government service like Williams)-- and were not being supported on religion alone. So, I would think recruiting black pastors as candidates is not the way to go.

The strategy I am advocating is that if enough religious conservative blacks were elected on this J.C. Watts model, then they would be frequently seen on the House floor, and on T.V. interview shows, and then black Republicans would start to look like a common phenomenon. Over time this would, I think, attract middle class blacks who are doing well, or reasonably well, to the Republican party.

And, while this might emphasize the class division in society, a little, if race is diffused somewhat, class issues can be better focused on subsequently, I hope.



I would say it better if I rewrote it now. But, this thing I call the "J.C. Watts model" is what the Tim Scott candidacy did. (Allen West was a more competitive district.)

In a nutshell, the "J.C. Watts model" is: Christian (Protestant or Catholic) conservative Black candidates running in safe very red Congressional districts.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 2:09 pm 
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Quite the praise from George Will:

Quote:
Washingtonpost.com
In Ted Cruz, a candidate as good as it gets
By George F. Will, Published: June 15

DALLAS

For a conservative Texan seeking national office, it could hardly get better than this: In a recent 48-hour span, Ted Cruz, a candidate for next year’s Republican Senate nomination for the seat being vacated by Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison, was endorsed by the Club for Growth PAC, FreedomWorks PAC, talk-radio host Mark Levin and Erick Erickson of RedState.com. And Cruz’s most conservative potential rival for the nomination decided to seek a House seat instead.

For conservatives seeking reinforcements for Washington’s too-limited number of limited-government constitutionalists, it can hardly get better than this: Before he earned a Harvard law degree magna cum laude (and helped found the Harvard Latino Law Review) and clerked for Chief Justice William Rehnquist, Cruz’s senior thesis at Princeton — his thesis adviser was professor Robert George, one of contemporary conservatism’s intellectual pinups — was on the Constitution’s Ninth and 10th amendments. Then as now, Cruz argued that these amendments, properly construed, would buttress the principle that powers not enumerated are not possessed by the federal government.

Utah’s freshman Sen. Mike Lee, who clerked for Justice Sam Alito, has endorsed Cruz. The national chairman of Cruz’s campaign is Ed Meese, the grand old man of Reagan administration alumni.

For anyone seeking elective office anywhere, this story is as good as it gets: At age 14, Cruz’s father fought with rebels (including Fidel Castro) against Cuba’s dictator, Fulgencio Batista. Captured and tortured, at 18 he escaped to America with $100 sewn in his underwear. He graduated from the University of Texas and met his wife — like him, a mathematician — with whom he founded a small business processing seismic data for the oil industry.

By the time Ted Cruz was 13, he was winning speech contests sponsored by a Houston free-enterprise group that gave contestants assigned readings by Frederic Bastiat, Friedrich Hayek and Ludwig von Mises. In his early teens he traveled around Texas and out of state giving speeches. At Princeton, he finished first in the 1992 U.S. National Debate Championship and North American Debate Championship.

As Texas’s solicitor general from 2003 to 2008, Cruz submitted 70 briefs to the U.S. Supreme Court, and he has, so far, argued nine cases there. He favors school choice and personal investment accounts for a portion of individuals’ Social Security taxes. He supports the latter idea with a bow to the late Daniel Patrick Moynihan, who said such accounts enable the doorman to build wealth the way the people in the penthouse do.

Regarding immigration, Cruz, 40, demands secure borders and opposes amnesty for illegal immigrants but echoes Ronald Reagan’s praise of legal immigrants as “Americans by choice,” people who are “crazy enough” to risk everything in the fundamentally entrepreneurial act of immigrating. He believes Hispanics are — by reasons of faith, industriousness and patriotism — natural Republicans. He says the military enlistment rate is higher among them than among any other demographic, and he says an Austin businessman observed, “When was the last time you saw a Hispanic panhandler?”

The Republican future without Hispanic support would be bleak. Forty-seven percent of Americans under 18 are minorities, and the largest portion are Hispanics. One in six Americans is Hispanic. In 37 states, the Hispanic population increased at least 50 percent between 2000 and 2010. The four states with the largest Hispanic populations — California, Texas, Florida and New York — have 151 electoral votes.

One in five Americans lives in California or Texas, and Texas is for Republicans what California is for Democrats — the largest reliable source of electoral votes and campaign cash. In 2005, Texas became a majority-minority state; in five years Hispanics will be a plurality; in about two decades, immigration and fertility will make them a majority.

But, Cruz says, unlike California’s Hispanics, those in Texas “show a willingness to be a swing vote.” Furthermore, the three Hispanics elected to major offices in 2010 — Florida’s Sen. Marco Rubio, Nevada’s Gov. Brian Sandoval and New Mexico’s Gov. Susana Martinez — are Republicans.

“It took Jimmy Carter to give us Ronald Reagan,” says Cruz, who believes the reaction against Barack Obama will give the Republican Party a cadre of conservatives who take their bearings from constitutional law as it was before the New Deal judicial revolution attenuated limits on government. This cadre is arriving: Sens. Lee and Rubio were born seven days apart, and Cruz six months earlier.

The parties’ profiles are often drawn in the Senate. The Republican profile is becoming more Madisonian.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 3:18 pm 
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I saw that piece as well. Can't remember the last time a candidate was this consistently heralded from all corners of the conservative movement.

_________________
THE TIMES are nightfall, look, their light grows less;
The times are winter, watch, a world undone:
They waste, they wither worse; they as they run
Or bring more or more blazon man’s distress.
And I not help. Nor word now of success:
All is from wreck, here, there, to rescue one—
Work which to see scarce so much as begun
Makes welcome death, does dear forgetfulness.
Or what is else? There is your world within.
There rid the dragons, root out there the sin.
Your will is law in that small commonweal…
G.M. Hopkins.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 3:22 pm 
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Discussion with Evan Smith and 4 of the candidates: Cruz, Jones, Leppert, Roger Williams,


And an additional 30 min. q&a with the audience,

_________________
THE TIMES are nightfall, look, their light grows less;
The times are winter, watch, a world undone:
They waste, they wither worse; they as they run
Or bring more or more blazon man’s distress.
And I not help. Nor word now of success:
All is from wreck, here, there, to rescue one—
Work which to see scarce so much as begun
Makes welcome death, does dear forgetfulness.
Or what is else? There is your world within.
There rid the dragons, root out there the sin.
Your will is law in that small commonweal…
G.M. Hopkins.


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