I did a little bit of analysis on not only the 2006 Senate campaign in which former Lt. Governor Michael Steele was the losing candidate but on the last six Maryland Senate races. Here's what I found out.
First, some background on Maryland. Maryland is the closest thing that a Democratic politician has to paradise. It's a safe Democratic state. Before Bob Ehrlich and Michael Steele shocked the state and much of the country by taking the State House in 2002 (defeating former Lt. Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend), the last Republican Governor of Maryland had been former Vice President Spiro Agnew, who left office in early 1969. Both of Maryland's Senators are Democrats. Seven of Maryland's eight Congressional seats are now held by Democrats. Only 14 of the 47 members of the Maryland Senate are Republicans along with 36 of the 141 members of the House of Delegates. The last time a Republican Presidential nominee carried Maryland was when President George H.W. Bush did so in 1988 and carried the state by less than three points despite winning a national landslide.
(Ironically, and along the lines of my other arguments, the reason that Maryland is such a reliable blue state is because it is a third black and blacks typically don't vote for Republicans. Bush narrowly won the majority of white voters here in 2000 but lost the state. He won the majority of white voters again in 2004 but lost the state. McCain narrowly won the majority of white voters over Obama last year but lost the state resoundingly. Maryland is a case study of why Republican failures to make inroads with non-white voters helps the Democrats gain power. And many of these voters are actually conservatives or at least conservative moderates, not liberals).
And so, let's take a look at what Michael Steele did in 2006 in his innovative campaign and compare it with what happened beforehand when most Republicans have tried to run statewide in Maryland.
* In 1992, incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Mikulski ran against Ambassador Alan Keyes, a black Republican. She beat him 71% to 29% and carried 23 out of 24 jurisdictions.
* In 1994, incumbent Democratic Senator Paul Sarbanes ran against Republican William Brock. This was the year of the Republican Revolution and Sarbanes won but not as comfortably as Mikulski had two years beforehand. Sarbanes won 59% - 41%. He carried 16 out of 24 jurisdictions.
* In 1998, Mikulski beat Republican Ross Pierpont, 70% to 30%, carrying 23 out of 24 jurisdictions.
* In 2000, Sarbanes beat Republican Paul Rappaport 63% to 36%, carrying 16 out of 24 jurisdictions.
* In 2004, Mikulski beat Republican Legislator E.J. Pipkin, 65% to 34%, carrying 18 out of 24 jurisdictions.
In 2006, however, Steele ran very close with his longtime Democratic Congressman opponnent. He was incumbent outgoing Lieutenant Governor at the time. Cardin beat him 54%-44%. The race was called early in the evening for Cardin. And then the Washington Post had to pull back its call because the returns were showing it as actually being too close to call. Cardin only won in six of the state's 24 jurisdictions. The Democrats had to call in both President Clinton and then-Senator Barack Obama to help Cardin persuade Democratic voters to vote for him.
Steele did do better among African Americans than other Republican candidates, although he still resoundingly lost the black vote to Democrat Cardin. But he also did substantially better with young voters and did substantially better with conservatives (he got 83% of the conservative vote in 2006 while Pipkin got 69% of that vote in 2004 and Pierpont got 64% in 1998).
It's very likely that had all Republicans not been bodyslammed in 2006 that Steele might have won. He ran a very clever campaign. The main attack line of his opponent, Cardin, was in trying to associate Steele with President Bush. Nearly every campaign ad I can remember seeing showed pictures of Steele hugging Bush.
It's also true that if the Republican Party did better with blacks, he would have won the seat and Harry Reid would not have become Senate Majority Leader in 2007. Steele won all eight jurisdictions in which blacks made up less than ten percent of the population but lost three of the five in which blacks make up more than 25%.
Sources:
http://www.uselectionatlas.orghttp://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/MD/S/01/epolls.0.htmlhttp://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/MD/S/01/epolls.0.htmlhttp://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/1998/states/MD/S/exit.poll.html