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PostPosted: Thu Jan 27, 2011 1:29 am 
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I have a theory that part of Huckabee's decision to delay in his announcement of a presidential run is contingent on getting a clear picture of what the Primary calender will evolve into. As many know, the parties have decreed that only IA, NH, NV and SC may have their primaries in February. Those that have their primary in March must allocate delegates proportionaly and states that have their primary after March can do whatever they like to but they lose having any significant influence in choosing the party's nominee.

By default, this means that 18 states which previously held primaries before the first Tuesday in March and are not one of the four allowed expections have to change thier primary date to follow the party's decision. However, states ultimately have the power to set the date of thier primary and decide whether to have a reduction of delegates if they so choose to not follow the rules set by the parties.

So far there has been indications that some states may be willing to not follow the rules, such as FL, TX and GA.


This is what I understand is currently under consideration or is already set to occur and as the calender evolves, I will update it.

2012 Republican Primary Calender:

January 31st
Florida...I only list this here because some in FL are debating whether or not to keep its 2008 date and suffer a 50% delegate penalty in order to keep its prominance in the election process. Marco Rubio, FL's former Speaker of the House, is on record stating that they should keep the date. They are also considering April. If FL does keep their date than, IA, SC, NV, and NH may decide to hop infront of them in January.

FL's legislative session does not convene till March so don't expect any decisions on it till then.

Feb. 6th
Iowa Caucuses

Feb. 7th
Texas.....has a bill introduced to move primary to first Tuesday in Feb. and in violation of party rules

Feb. 14th
New Hamshire Primary

Feb. 18th
Nevada Caucuses

Feb 28
South Carolina Primary

March 6th
Virgina..... pending approval of VA HB 1667 or 1843,both bills have now passed and one is waiting Gov. McDonnel's signature, previously held their primary on the first Tues. in Feb., could be the end of the Potomac primary of VA, DC and MD; Senate version,
Oklahoma..... pending approval of OK HB 1614 and SB 884, previously held their primary on first Tues in Feb.
Maryland..... pending approval of SB 501, previously held thier primary on the first Tuedsay in Februrary
Tennessee.....pending approval of HB612 and SB599, previously held thier primary on the first Tues in Feb.
Missouri....pending approval of HB503, previously held thier primary on the first Tues in Feb.
Connecticut... pending HB6532, previously held thier primary on the first Tuesday in Feb.

Based on 2008 calender, on March 6th you also have:
Minnesota caucuses, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont

March 13
Mississippi

March 20
Colorado caucuses, Illinois

April 3
Maryland.....Pending approval of SB 820, previously held thier primary on the first Tuedsay in Februrary


April 24
Pennsylvania

May 8
Indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia

May 15
Nebraska
Oregon
Idaho

May 22
Arkansas... AR was apart of Super Tuesday (Feb. 5th) in 2008 along with 20+ other states. They were the first to move up hoping to get some recognition the the election process but only to be followed by all the other states. Consequently, no candidates campaigned in AR leaving the state to its favorite son and daughter. This is a set date for 2012.

June 5
Montana, New Mexico and South Dakota
Massachusettes pending approval of H 1972, previously held thier primary on first Tues in March, due to budget constraints, this move consolodates federal and local primaries to save money
Alabama, Pending HB 32

August 7
Kentucky.. SB 4 passed the Senate, waiting for House bill introduction, 3 weeks before the Convention, thats crazy


August 27..... Republican National Convention



These are the states that have to move their primary or caucus or face possible sanctions on delegates. As news occurs, I will insert them back into the calender. I expect the calender to have a definite shape by mid summer.

Florida, Alabama, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, Louisiana, Maryland, Virginia, Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan

REFERRENCES
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/
http://www.stateline.org/live/details/story?contentId=544142
http://www.ballot-access.org/


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 27, 2011 10:37 am 
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Let's assume that the calendar doesn't move. That's a big assumption but I'm dreaming here anyway. That's three states Huckabee could win all in a row. That would be HUGE and might just end the Primary right there. After winning FL, IA, and TX that would give Mike inevitability to many pragmatic moderates in NH. The snowball would just continue to roll down the hill from there.

And that's why the calendar will ultimately change significantly.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 02, 2011 2:57 am 
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FiscalConservative wrote:

So far there has been indications that some states may be willing to not follow the rules, such as FL, TX and GA.


This is what I understand is currently under consideration or is already set to occur and as the calender evolves, I will update it.

2012 Republican Primary Calender:

January 31st
Florida...I only list this here because some in FL are debating whether or not to keep its 2008 date and suffer a 50% delegate penalty in order to keep its prominance in the election process. Marco Rubio, FL's former Speaker of the House, is on record stating that they should keep the date. They are also considering April. If FL does keep their date than, IA, SC, NV, and NH may decide to hop infront of them in January.

FL's legislative session does not convene till March so don't expect any decisions on it till then.

Feb. 5th
Iowa Caucuses

Feb. 7th
Texas.....has a bill introduced to move primary to first Tuesday in Feb. and in violation of party rules

Feb. 14th
New Hamshire Primary

Feb. 18th
Nevada Caucuses

Late Feb
South Carolina Primary

March 6th
Virgina..... pending approval of VA HB 1667 and 1843, previously held their primary on the first Tues. in Feb., could be the end of the Potomac primary of VA, DC and MD
Oklahoma..... pending approval of OK HB 1614 and SB 884, previously held their primary on fisrt Tues in Feb.

Based on 2008 calender, on March 6th you also have:
Minnesota caucuses, Massachusetts, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont

REFERRENCES
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/
http://www.stateline.org/live/details/story?contentId=544142



RACE42012 NEWSWIRE:

“Virginia Senate Bill to Move Primary to March Passes” :o

===

Hmmm…

Possible 2012 Republican Primary Calender:

Feb. 5th
Iowa Caucuses

(Feb. 7th
Texas…..has a bill introduced to move primary to first Tuesday in Feb. and in violation of party rules)

Feb. 14th
New Hamshire Primary

Feb. 18th
Nevada Caucuses

Late Feb
South Carolina Primary

March 6th
Virgina….. pending approval of VA HB 1667 and 1843

FRONTLOADING HQ:

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

“SB 1246, the Virginia Senate bill to move the commonwealth’s 2012 presidential primary from the second Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in March, overwhelmingly passed the chamber today. Senator Vogel’s (R) bill made it through the Senate with only one dissenting vote (39Y, 1N). As FHQ pointed out this morning, this clears the way for consideration of the one bill that is now before the House of Delegates. HB 1667, which would have changed the date of the presidential primary as well as reduced the petition signature requirement was incorporated into HB 1843 (the same bill as SB 1246) by voice vote in the subcommittee of the House Privileges and Elections Committee. HB 1843 subsequently emerged from that subcommittee with a unanimous (6Y, 0N) recommendation for reporting to the full committee with amendments.

As Virginia’s state legislature is only in session until February 26, this bill, if it is going to be passed, is likely to move quickly.”

===

FC,

I obviously love Virginia going early!

Now, c’mon Texas – do the same thing. Go early!

Btw, Arizona’s bill to go early failed, I read somewhere.

Virginia and Texas are Huckabee states! Arizona, not so much and likely Romney.

Florida will go Huck but by a little closer margin than Texas and Virginia, I think.

After Mike wins in IA AND SC, the calendar could set up rather nicely, it seems.....

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:15 am 
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FC,

Iowa caucuses - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia says: The 2012 Iowa Caucuses are scheduled to take place on February 6, 2012.

Is that right? Or is it the 5th which is a Sunday?

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:18 am 
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On the surface it sounds good. However, since they are in March, they will have to award delegates proportionally. Party rules do not state what proportional means. It seems like to two main ways states award delegates proportionally is by either total vote count or by district like in CA. If they go by vote count it would favor the moderate candidate as there are more voters in the eastern side of the state where the moderate voters reside. The western or rural portion of the state would be Huckabee's strength, but it is not as populated. We need to wait and see how the state defines "proportional" before we get too excited.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:25 am 
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Craig88USC wrote:
FC,

Iowa caucuses - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia says: The 2012 Iowa Caucuses are scheduled to take place on February 6, 2012.

Is that right? Or is it the 5th which is a Sunday?


Thanks, You are correct. We have a nice little feature over here called EDIT, something Kavon seems to not care about at Race42012. :wall :wall-yellow


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:28 am 
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Virginia 2012 Primary PPP

21 HUCK
20 Newt
17 Palin
15 Romney

That was back in November. I'd guess now with Newt and Palin slipping noticeably as of late, that it's now more like...

26+ Huck
17-18 Romney
15 Newt
15 Palin

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:32 am 
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FC,

No problem. I only checked the Iowa date when I saw that Texas wanted to go on that Tuesday.

Anyway, Huck seems to be doing better and gaining momentum with both conservatives and moderates in most every poll so I think Virginia will be fine.

Especially after an impressive SC showing right before.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 02, 2011 11:55 am 
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I believe Iowa is proportional regardless (and by candidate not district)


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 02, 2011 12:57 pm 
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but why should they violate the rules? They'll have half their delegates taken away and since Huckabee would win both states, he would lose more delegates than anyone else. I see this as a disadvantage.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 02, 2011 1:59 pm 
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Remember what happened last time. On the Democratic side Michigan and Florida violated their rules and there was very little punishment for them. If enough states violate the rules what is the RNC going to do about it? Do they want an near empty convention hall because the delegate numbers were slashed?

Boy this is a mess.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 03, 2011 12:11 am 
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The new RNC Chairman took time out of his schedule today to remind the FL legislature to stick to the new party rules and move thier primary back. So did the FL Democrat Party Chairman. FL, including its new governor would really like to keep thier early date.


http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/rnc-chairman-urges-legislature-no-early-primaries-please/1149132

Quote:
"As far as Florida is concerned, I would do encourage the Legislature to do everything they can to abide by the rules passed by both the Democratic National Committee and the Republican National Committee together to make sure we can bring some order into the presidential election process," Priebus said.


http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/blog/rod-smith-calls-again-later-presidential-primary-2012


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 09, 2011 11:53 pm 
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There has been some recent news.

MD: Is considering moving there primary from the second Tuesday in Feb to either the first Tuesday in March (SB501) or the first Tuesday in April (SB820)

And from FL
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/02/bill-to-move-florida-presidential.html

Quote:
Florida Senator Arthenia Joyner (D-Tampa) filed S 860 on February 8. The bill would shift the date on which the Sunshine state's presidential primary is held from the last Tuesday in January to the first Tuesday in March. FHQ has for some time now discussed the importance of Florida in terms of what the 2012 presidential primary calendar will ultimately look like. Out of compliance in 2008 and still, by law, non-compliant for 2012, a Florida move to a later date would be the first necessary domino to fall in determining when Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina will hold their 2012 delegate selection events. Florida is not the only non-compliant state, but it is the earliest, and its presence at the end of January is keeping the beginning of the process there -- at least hypothetically -- and not in February where both of the national parties prefer the presidential primary process to begin.


One should note the both the House and the Senate in FL are controlled by Republicans. This bill was introduced by a democrat.


From KY

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/02/kentucky-moving-to-august.html

Quote:
...a bill (SB 4) was introduced and passed in the Kentucky Senate in January proposing a move of the Bluegrass state's primary -- both the presidential primary and those for state and local offices -- from the first Tuesday after the third Monday in May to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in August.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2011 1:59 am 
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I love this kind of "inside-baseball" discussion! Great thread; good research & analysis, everyone. :D

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 9:30 pm 
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Looks like TN wants move to what may happen as the new 'Super Tuesday", March 6, the first Tuesday in March instead of February as in years past.


http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/02/bills-introduced-in-both-chambers-to.html

Here is the text, but FHQ provides lots of links if you are interrested.

Quote:
On February 10, bills were introduced in both the Tennessee state House and Senate to shift the Volunteer state's presidential primary back to March where the primary was between the 1988 and 2000 cycles. While the presidential primary during those years was on the second Tuesday in March, the current legislation would move it from the first Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in March. This would be the third consecutive cycle Tennessee has moved its primary -- from the second Tuesday in March to the second Tuesday in February in 2004 and up to the first Tuesday in February in 2008.


Tennessee, like Florida, is under unified Republican control, but in contrast to the Sunshine state, Republicans in the Tennessee General Assembly are the ones pushing, or at least proposing, the date change. In the House, Rep. Gerald McCormick (R-26, Chattanooga) introduced HB 612, and Sen. Mark Norris (R-32, Collierville) introduced SB 599. As was the case in Maryland, these legislators are members of the leadership in their respective chambers. McCormick is the Republican leader in the House and Norris is the majority leader in the Senate. Leadership sponsorship does not guarantee a bill will pass, but it won't hurt its chances.


The change to March, if codified, would bring Tennessee back into compliance with the 2012 delegate selection rules in both national parties.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 12:52 am 
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Go Tennessee! Move to Super Tuesday for Huck! :up

Any news on California moving theirs waaaay back to June? :zorro

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 12:55 am 
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Has there been any talk about California moving their primary to June? Or is that just a pipe dream? :)


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:37 am 
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Wendero wrote:
Has there been any talk about California moving their primary to June? Or is that just a pipe dream? :)


Ask and you shall receive 8)

Bill would return California's 2012 presidential primary to June

"The measure's sponsor, Assemblyman Paul Fong, says consolidating the presidential and state primaries in June would save tens of millions of dollars.
February 05, 2011|By Mark Z. Barabak, Los Angeles TimesFor years, Sacramento lawmakers worked to give California voters a bigger say in national politics by scheduling the state's presidential primary as early as they could.

The series of moves culminated in 2008 with a Feb. 5 vote, the earliest in state history. But now a legislative effort is underway to move the California primary back where it started — to June, on the last day of the 2012 nominating season — as a way to save tens of millions of dollars. "That's a lot of money," said the bill's sponsor, Assemblyman Paul Fong (D-Cupertino), "at a time when every penny counts."

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/05 ... r-20110206

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:42 am 
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And that would royally screw up Romney's Super Tuesday.

Last time it looked like this:



Monday, January Iowa caucuses*
Tuesday, January New Hampshire*
Saturday, January South Carolina*
Tuesday, January Florida
Tuesday, February 5 (Super Tuesday): Alabama, CALIFORNIA, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Utah

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 2:06 am 
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Maybe New York can move too? :)


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