Republican Convention Has '50-50' Chance Of Being Open: Former GOP Chair


Michael Steele, the former Republican national chairman who oversaw the writing of the party's nominating rules in 2010, told The Huffington Post Saturday night that the chances of an open -- that is, undecided -- GOP convention in Florida next August are now "50-50" after Newt Gingrich's victory in South Carolina.

"It's a real possibility," Steele told HuffPost. "Right now I'd say it's 50-50. The base wants its chance to have their say. They aren't going to want it to end early, before they get their chance, which means that the process could go all the way to Tampa."

And if it does, Steele says, the result will not be an unpalatable anti-democratic display of insider deal-making, but rather an advertisement for the ideological and grassroots input of the party.

"You would see the people who had the influence to begin with -- the Tea Party, the social conservatives, you name it, hashing it out right in front of us all. I think that is good."

More:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/2 ... 21350.html

Can someone explain how Mike Huckabee might figure in if this is the case? I mean, in a brokered convention, how likely is it that they would turn to someone who's not running, like Mike Huckabee, to be the nominee? I'm just trying to gauge the possibility of that happening. Is that rationally possible? What are the mechanics that would have to go into something like that?

In 1976, the Republican primaries gave President Gerald Ford a slight lead in the popular vote and delegates entering the Republican National Convention but not enough delegates to secure the nomination. A brokered convention was predicted but Ford managed to receive the necessary support on the first ballot to edge Ronald Reagan. This is the last time a Republican presidential convention opened without the nominee having already been decided in the primaries.[5]

Can someone explain how Mike Huckabee might figure in if this is the case? I mean, in a brokered convention, how likely is it that they would turn to someone who's not running, like Mike Huckabee, to be the nominee? I'm just trying to gauge the possibility of that happening. Is that rationally possible? What are the mechanics that would have to go into something like that?

"It would take a miracle..."



"Have fun storming the castle!"

.

Steele has a history of saying silly things in an attempt to appear relevant, in my opinion. Still, the thought of a brokered convention sounds good to me!

Yes, but as much as we want it to be Huck, we know the party leadership is extremely unlikely to go there; it would have to be someone palatable to them. Who do you think they would go with?

Romney is already causing a grassroots revolt.
Gingrich would cause a leadership revolt.
Santorum could cause the supporters of Romney & Gingrich to scream 'foul' and revolt.
Paul would cause a grassroots & leadership revolt.

So they would be likely to go outside the candidates at hand now, don't you think?
Who is liked by both leadership AND grassroots and is not in a position that the Party can't afford to lose and can also put up a credible fight against Obama?

I would love for Huckabee to be the nominee, but I don't see where, in the past, open or brokered conventions have turned to someone who wasn't in it 'till the end. I don't want to get my hopes up and then have them dashed again, but where would you say it is between (well let's just use sports injuries projections): doubtful, questionable, probable?

"You would see the people who had the influence to begin with -- the Tea Party, the social conservatives, you name it, hashing it out right in front of us all. I think that is good."

It looks like neither Santorum nor Gingrich will be able to reach 1,144 delegates:
http://race42012.com/2012/03/06/santorum-cannot-realistically-get-to-1144-delegates/

So are we heading towards a brokered convention?