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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 12:36 am 
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Republican Convention Has '50-50' Chance Of Being Open: Former GOP Chair


Michael Steele, the former Republican national chairman who oversaw the writing of the party's nominating rules in 2010, told The Huffington Post Saturday night that the chances of an open -- that is, undecided -- GOP convention in Florida next August are now "50-50" after Newt Gingrich's victory in South Carolina.

"It's a real possibility," Steele told HuffPost. "Right now I'd say it's 50-50. The base wants its chance to have their say. They aren't going to want it to end early, before they get their chance, which means that the process could go all the way to Tampa."

And if it does, Steele says, the result will not be an unpalatable anti-democratic display of insider deal-making, but rather an advertisement for the ideological and grassroots input of the party.

"You would see the people who had the influence to begin with -- the Tea Party, the social conservatives, you name it, hashing it out right in front of us all. I think that is good."

More:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/2 ... 21350.html



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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 12:39 am 
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Steele has a history of saying silly things in an attempt to appear relevant, in my opinion. Still, the thought of a brokered convention sounds good to me!

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Post by cschande has received Likes: 3 ColoradoMom4Huckabee, IowaforHuckabee, justgrace
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 12:41 am 
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:D :D

:eatingpopcorn :eatingpopcorn :eatingpopcorn :eatingpopcorn :eatingpopcorn :eatingpopcorn :eatingpopcorn :eatingpopcorn :eatingpopcorn :eatingpopcorn

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Post by Southern Doc Liked by: ColoradoMom4Huckabee
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 12:43 am 
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Southern Doc wrote:
:D :D

:eatingpopcorn :eatingpopcorn :eatingpopcorn :eatingpopcorn :eatingpopcorn :eatingpopcorn :eatingpopcorn :eatingpopcorn :eatingpopcorn :eatingpopcorn


A BIG ditto, Southern Doc. This scenario is my only hope of getting fired up about this election! :wink:



Post by ColoradoMom4Huckabee has received Likes: 2 QuoVadisAnima, WhatsNotToLike?
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 12:45 am 
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Can someone explain how Mike Huckabee might figure in if this is the case? I mean, in a brokered convention, how likely is it that they would turn to someone who's not running, like Mike Huckabee, to be the nominee? I'm just trying to gauge the possibility of that happening. Is that rationally possible? What are the mechanics that would have to go into something like that?

:?:

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 12:52 am 
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atrain3067 wrote:
Can someone explain how Mike Huckabee might figure in if this is the case? I mean, in a brokered convention, how likely is it that they would turn to someone who's not running, like Mike Huckabee, to be the nominee? I'm just trying to gauge the possibility of that happening. Is that rationally possible? What are the mechanics that would have to go into something like that?

:?:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention

Quote:
In 1976, the Republican primaries gave President Gerald Ford a slight lead in the popular vote and delegates entering the Republican National Convention but not enough delegates to secure the nomination. A brokered convention was predicted but Ford managed to receive the necessary support on the first ballot to edge Ronald Reagan. This is the last time a Republican presidential convention opened without the nominee having already been decided in the primaries.[5]

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 12:57 am 
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atrain3067 wrote:
Can someone explain how Mike Huckabee might figure in if this is the case? I mean, in a brokered convention, how likely is it that they would turn to someone who's not running, like Mike Huckabee, to be the nominee? I'm just trying to gauge the possibility of that happening. Is that rationally possible? What are the mechanics that would have to go into something like that?

:?:


"It would take a miracle..." :wink:



"Have fun storming the castle!" :eatingpopcorn

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 1:02 am 
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ColoradoMom4Huckabee wrote:
atrain3067 wrote:
Can someone explain how Mike Huckabee might figure in if this is the case? I mean, in a brokered convention, how likely is it that they would turn to someone who's not running, like Mike Huckabee, to be the nominee? I'm just trying to gauge the possibility of that happening. Is that rationally possible? What are the mechanics that would have to go into something like that?

:?:


"It would take a miracle..." :wink:



"Have fun storming the castle!" :eatingpopcorn

.


I would love for Huckabee to be the nominee, but I don't see where, in the past, open or brokered conventions have turned to someone who wasn't in it 'till the end. I don't want to get my hopes up and then have them dashed again, but where would you say it is between (well let's just use sports injuries projections): doubtful, questionable, probable?

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 1:33 am 
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cschande wrote:
Steele has a history of saying silly things in an attempt to appear relevant, in my opinion. Still, the thought of a brokered convention sounds good to me!
Yes, but as much as we want it to be Huck, we know the party leadership is extremely unlikely to go there; it would have to be someone palatable to them. Who do you think they would go with?

Romney is already causing a grassroots revolt.
Gingrich would cause a leadership revolt.
Santorum could cause the supporters of Romney & Gingrich to scream 'foul' and revolt.
Paul would cause a grassroots & leadership revolt.

So they would be likely to go outside the candidates at hand now, don't you think?
Who is liked by both leadership AND grassroots and is not in a position that the Party can't afford to lose and can also put up a credible fight against Obama?


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 1:37 am 
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QuoVadisAnima wrote:
cschande wrote:
Steele has a history of saying silly things in an attempt to appear relevant, in my opinion. Still, the thought of a brokered convention sounds good to me!
Yes, but as much as we want it to be Huck, we know the party leadership is extremely unlikely to go there; it would have to be someone palatable to them. Who do you think they would go with?

Romney is already causing a grassroots revolt.
Gingrich would cause a leadership revolt.
Santorum could cause the supporters of Romney & Gingrich to scream 'foul' and revolt.
Paul would cause a grassroots & leadership revolt.

So they would be likely to go outside the candidates at hand now, don't you think?
Who is liked by both leadership AND grassroots and is not in a position that the Party can't afford to lose and can also put up a credible fight against Obama?


I guess I'm still hoping/believing that person might be Santorum. I think he gets along well enough with the establishment but can also appeal to more grassroots conservatives. Obviously my ultimate choice is still Huck, but I'm not too optimistic that the establishment has sufficiently warmed up to him. At this point, though, I'd prefer even a Mitch Daniels, a Bobby Jindal, or a Haley Barbour to Romney or Gingrich. I think our options get a lot better at a brokered convention, even with the establishment in charge. How could they not?

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 1:38 am 
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atrain3067 wrote:
ColoradoMom4Huckabee wrote:
atrain3067 wrote:
Can someone explain how Mike Huckabee might figure in if this is the case? I mean, in a brokered convention, how likely is it that they would turn to someone who's not running, like Mike Huckabee, to be the nominee? I'm just trying to gauge the possibility of that happening. Is that rationally possible? What are the mechanics that would have to go into something like that?

:?:


"It would take a miracle..." :wink:



"Have fun storming the castle!" :eatingpopcorn

.


I would love for Huckabee to be the nominee, but I don't see where, in the past, open or brokered conventions have turned to someone who wasn't in it 'till the end. I don't want to get my hopes up and then have them dashed again, but where would you say it is between (well let's just use sports injuries projections): doubtful, questionable, probable?


Adalai Stevenson 1952 Democratic nominee

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 2:33 am 
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^ Thanks Doc :eatingpopcorn

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 3:03 pm 
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Quote:
"You would see the people who had the influence to begin with -- the Tea Party, the social conservatives, you name it, hashing it out right in front of us all. I think that is good."
I especially appreciate this line. He seems to be acknowledging how important we are to the party. Perhaps it's too little too late for him but I guess it's nice to be noticed.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 7:31 pm 
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It's really, really unlikely that there will be a brokered convention. Almost 0% chance. Either Gingrich or Romney will likely pull away from the other one. The momentum from their wins will create more wins, and all the winner-take-all primaries late in the primary season will produce a decisive winner in the delegate count.

Very few delegates will be awarded before Super Tuesday. One candidate will probably then take a lead on Super Tuesday and win most of the primaries after Super Tuesday.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 9:33 pm 
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It looks like neither Santorum nor Gingrich will be able to reach 1,144 delegates:
http://race42012.com/2012/03/06/santorum-cannot-realistically-get-to-1144-delegates/

So are we heading towards a brokered convention? :D


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 12:54 pm 
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Not until they can block Romney from getting to 1144 also.

Grant wrote:
It looks like neither Santorum nor Gingrich will be able to reach 1,144 delegates:
http://race42012.com/2012/03/06/santorum-cannot-realistically-get-to-1144-delegates/

So are we heading towards a brokered convention? :D

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 6:21 pm 
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I'd like to revise my post from in January. Looks like it's very possible that no candidate gets 1,144 delegates. Romney has to be the favorite because the unpledged delegates will likely go to him, but that could change. Santorum could consolidate the conservative vote behind him and really take it to Romney in the coming months. Establishment types will be loathe to support anyone but Romney, but if Santorum is winning everything in May and June, then how could they just hand the nomination to Romney? The entire party would revolt. The more likely solution is to have both Romney and Santorum on the ticket with whoever's leading in delegates being at the number 1 slot.


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