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PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2012 9:02 pm 
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The website http://www.thegreenpapers.com is an excellent site summarizing the delegate allocation process. I've been looking ahead to what we might expect. Almost every state uses proportional delegate allocation this year. The few that don't tend to favor Romney over Santorum.

I went through the whole calendar assigning winners and guessed winning percentages in each state. I also assumed that Newt Gingrich would drop out shortly after Super Tuesday and Ron Paul about a week after that. Even if he does stick around, his effect will be negligible. It looks like after Super Tuesday, Romney should be leading the delegate count, with Santorum in 2nd. Throughout March and April, Romney continues to lead Santorum, even with Santorum winning more than Romney is winning. This is partly due to Puerto Rico, DC, and Maryland being winner take all states favoring Romney while only Wisconsin is winner take all favoring Santorum. In early May though I have Santorum overtaking Romney when North Carolina, West Virginia, and Indiana vote with Indiana being a winner take all state. It's very close though. After that, it's a mixed bag slightly favoring Romney due to winner take all New Jersey and Utah. California is winner take all and worth a lot of delegates. Pretty much whoever wins California leads the delegate count at the end unless one candidate can pull away by a wide margin earlier than that.

In short, this race may drag on into May or June. We know that Romney won't quit. Santorum might need Gingrich's delegates if things are very close at the end. I do think that Santorum can win, but to do so he doesn't need to just tie Romney. He needs to eventually pull ahead of Romney nationally and win by good margins in the proportionally allocated states to offset Romney's advantage in those winner take all states.


Also, I wouldn't rule out Santorum challenging the winner take all status of Florida and Arizona since they are in violation of the rules. Puerto Rico is also in violation of the rules and may be challenged.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2012 10:28 pm 
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Eric,
Thanks for the link.
quote: I also assumed that Newt Gingrich would drop out shortly after Super Tuesday and Ron Paul about a week after that.

I disagree. I think Newt is going to do very well on Super Tuesday and wont be dropping out. Also, RS is not on the Indiana ballot is he?

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2012 10:34 pm 
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My eyes can't handle the green background, so I'll take your word for it.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2012 11:07 pm 
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http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/IN-R

Looks like Santorum is on the ballot in Indiana. You might be thinking of Virginia.


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2012 12:34 am 
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Indiana was up in the air - some questions about some of the ballots turned in or something - but apparently it has been resolved in Santorum's favor. What a relief!


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2012 1:35 am 
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Good analysis Eric. Two points on California: first, I think the vast majority of their delegates are awarded based on the winners of each congressional district, so things could still be pretty split coming out of there, and second, what happens if Santorum wins California? :shock: :shock: :shock:

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2012 1:44 am 
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:shock: :shock: :shock:
Whoa!

You know, I thought it was a tell-tale difference between between the two that Romney compared his lost primaries to John McCain's -- and Santorum compared his to Reagan's 1976 run.

The more I learn about Romney, the more I wonder who he is. In fact, the more I learn about Romney, the more I wonder if he even knows who he is.


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2012 11:15 pm 
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cschande wrote:
Good analysis Eric. Two points on California: first, I think the vast majority of their delegates are awarded based on the winners of each congressional district, so things could still be pretty split coming out of there, and second, what happens if Santorum wins California? :shock: :shock: :shock:


If it's still Romney vs. Santorum by the time that California votes, then yeah, I expect Santorum to win California. People are vastly underrating Santorum and waaaaaay behind the curve. He's already in the lead nationally RIGHT NOW. That will only increase going forward. Gingrich's voters will move over to Santorum to block Romney, further increasing his lead. Some of Romney's voters will abandon him once it becomes apparent that Santorum is just as strong (or stronger) of a general election candidate vs. Obama. People always take time adjusting to changing circumstances, but this is the new reality and people will eventually come around to it. I believe that a month from now Santorum will be the front-runner and Romney will be the underdog. Gingrich won't even be in the picture anymore, and he might have endorsed Santorum by a month from now.

Santorum will likely carry Michigan. Arizona will be closer than people expect, but I think it will go to Romney. Then, Santorum will win the Washington caucuses most likely or Romney may win very narrowly. On Super Tuesday, Romney will win Idaho, Vermont, Massachusetts, and Virginia (due to Santorum and Gingrich not being on the ballot in Virginia). Santorum will win Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Alaska, and Ohio netting Santorum way more delegates than Romney. Gingrich will then probably look ahead a week later for when Alabama and Mississippi vote and see from his internal polling that Santorum is way ahead of him and then drop out. At that point, Santorum will lead Romney by more than 20 points nationally. The only states Romney will be capable of winning after that will be liberal northeastern states or Mormon-dominated states in the West. A lot of soft Romney backers will abandon him, and Santorum will essentially have the nomination wrapped up in March, even though he won't mathematically have enough delegates to clinch until April or May.

That's just my prediction anyways. We'll see how it goes.


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2012 4:59 am 
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I agree with a lot of your analysis, but I expect Gingrich to win Georgia at a minimum.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2012 11:35 am 
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Romney is running out of favorable territory once we get to Super Tuesday.

After Arizona (29) and Michigan (30) vote on Feb. 28 we have these states:

March 3:
Washington caucus (43) (tossup) <--- Santorum is campaigning in Washington

March 6:
Alaska conventions (27) - Santorum
Georgia primary (76) - Santorum (or Gingrich)
Idaho caucus (32) - Romney
Massachusetts primary (41) - Romney
North Dakota caucus (28) - Santorum
Ohio primary (66) - Santorum
Oklahoma primary (43) - Santorum
Tennessee primary (58) - Santorum
Vermont primary (17) - Romney
Virginia primary (49) - Romney

March 10:
Kansas caucus (40) - Santorum
Wyoming caucus (29) - Romney

March 13:
Alabama primary (50) - Santorum
Hawaii caucus (20) - Romney
Mississippi primary (40) - Santorum

March 17:
Missouri caucus (52) - Santorum

March 18:
Puerto Rico primary (23) - ???

March 20:
Illinois primary (69) - lean Santorum

March 24:
Louisiana primary (46) - Santorum

April 3:
DC primary (19) - Romney
Maryland primary - (37) Romney
Texas primary (155) - Santorum
Wisconsin primary (42) - Santorum

April 24:
Connecticut primary (28) - Romney
Delaware primary (17) - Romney
New York primary (95) - Romney
Pennsylvania primary (72) - Santorum
Rhode Island primary (19) - Romney


As you can see, from Super Tuesday going forward everything favors Santorum over Romney. There's not a single day until April 24 where Romney will win something more significant than Santorum should the race turn into a slugfest.

:Added the delegates for each contest


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2012 11:46 am 
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can you also add the delegates for each of these states in your list?

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2012 12:21 pm 
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OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO...does that mean Illinois might actually matter? I hope so cause then i might actually spend some time getting out the vote for Santorum!


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2012 1:07 pm 
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thx for adding the delegate numbers

I'm not ready to concede this is a Romney - Santorum race because if we've learned anything this time, things can change on a dime

however, if you add the numbers based on your scenario, Rick will have 746 delegates from now through 4/3 and Romney 273... if you include 4/24 the numbers are Santorum 818 to Romney 432 (this does not include primaries before now)

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2012 1:29 pm 
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The problem is that most of the contests are proportional. Only a few are not proportional.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2012 1:39 pm 
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right, just meant that as a rough guide

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2012 3:38 pm 
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FirstCoastTerp wrote:
thx for adding the delegate numbers

I'm not ready to concede this is a Romney - Santorum race because if we've learned anything this time, things can change on a dime

I agree wholeheartedly. So many unexpected things have happened, & we have a debate coming up next week which could be another game-changer.

Some new aspects, though, which haven't been significant factors up to this point, is that people are recognizing that we're out of surge room (not much time left to shift support & unify enough people behind another), RS is peeling off significant Romney support (prior to that it was mostly shifts between RS & NG supporters), and RS has been proven to not only be as electable as the other two going up against Obama, but more so.

In the overall analysis, it appears that the fact that Romney & Gingrich supported the individual mandate in healthcare may have been the most damaging to their support overall.


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