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PostPosted: Wed Feb 08, 2012 10:41 am 
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Romney 91
Santorum 44
Gingrich 29
Paul 8
Huntsman 2


1144 needed to get the nomination

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/delegates

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 08, 2012 11:43 am 
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Realclearpolitics gives the following delegate count. Don't know which one is accurate.

Romney: 87

Santorum: 35

Gingrich: 32

Paul: 13

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 08, 2012 12:04 pm 
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RCP only has 12 total delegates although Iowa has 25 delegates (which the NYT count reflects). The other differences are the numbers for MN and CO because those are projections since delegates aren't awarded from those states yet.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 08, 2012 2:03 pm 
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Ken, if Mitt had over one hundred and Newt had 35,before last night,how can numbers go down? I am confused on how this works.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 08, 2012 3:02 pm 
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I have only been watching the NYT counts so I hadn't seen the numbers you mentioned (not saying you didn't see them). I'm not sure.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 08, 2012 3:23 pm 
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These are thegreenpapers.com "soft" delegate counts.

W Romney 99
N Gingrich 41
R Santorum 39
R Paul 28


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 08, 2012 3:37 pm 
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haha, well here's another delegate count, this time from AP as reported by Fox News:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/02 ... gate-race/

Romney 107
Santorum 45
Newt Gingrich 32
Ron Paul 9


the bottom line is that this race is far from over

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 08, 2012 6:13 pm 
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Best link for delegates as this shows hard as well as soft.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R-HS.phtml


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 08, 2012 11:08 pm 
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Just to show another perspective:

Candidate Votes...... Total %

Mitt.......... 1,181,976... 39.33%
Newt........ 837,270..... 27.86%
Rick S....... 568,512.....18.92%
Ron P....... 335,853..... 11.18%
Jon H....... 44,936....... 1.50%
Rick P....... 19,151....... 0.64%
Herman.... 8,845......... 0.29%
Michelle.... 8,606......... 0.29%


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 08, 2012 11:56 pm 
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Interesting article on how Romney could fail to get enough delegates:

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/how-romney-could-fail-get-enough-delegates/365281

Quote:
Because most states in 2012 are allocated proportionally rather than winner-take-all, it’s really difficult to predict how the delegates would be awarded. Romney’s opponents will win delegates in states that he wins and he’ll get delegates in the states that he loses. But just for the sake of this exercise, if Romney were to win all of the delegates in all of the states that I identified above as solid or lean states, it would only get him to 1,008 delegates, according to the CNN calculator -- still short of the required 1,144.

What happens then is unclear, because it would be uncharted territory in the modern era. In theory, all of the candidates can take their delegates to the convention and fight it out there. However, its also possible that one of the other candidates would cut a deal with Romney to release their delegates before then. Either way, such a scenario does not seem out of the question.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2012 4:35 am 
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I cannot imagine Santorum or Gingrich being willing to cut a deal with Romney - perhaps this is where Ron Paul's delegate leverage might come into play...


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2012 9:30 am 
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Quote:
I cannot imagine Santorum or Gingrich being willing to cut a deal with Romney - perhaps this is where Ron Paul's delegate leverage might come into play...


I totally agree. Especially after Romney has been so poisonous in his attacks. No, I see it more of delegates that are not bound switching after the first ballot. His analysis is quite interesting though; it's the first real argument I've seen against Romney.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2012 11:32 am 
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Two more ways to examine the votes cast thuse far:

The average vote of the four current candidates in the eight state contests (Newt's average is based on contests where he appeared on the ballot).

Romney - 33.15%
Santorum - 26.81%
Gingrich - 19.94%
Paul - 16.78%

Since South Carolina (FL, NV, MO, MN, CO)-

Romney - 34.7
Santorum - 32.7
Gingrich - 19.1
Paul - 15.4

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