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PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 1:47 pm 
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Right now 429 of the 435 races have called races in the House of Representatives. Republicans have 241 seats to Democrats 188. Of the remaining six races, the Democrats are ahead in 4 out of 6 of them. If that holds, we'll end up with 243 seats, a pickup of 64 seats in the House. If you allocate those seats with who is currently in the lead, then you get a total of 243 Republicans and 192 Democrats in the House.

I went and looked at Real Clear Politics final ratings in each district as a way to see how accurate their projections were. It'll be useful to know who got it right and who didn't to know who to believe in the future and who not to. I also took a glance at the New York Times. They, of course, tilted the field to the Democrats and had most tossup races going Republican, so they aren't to be believed in the future.

Looking at Real Clear Politics, here's what we find:

They had 165 races rated as "Safe Republican"
Republicans won all 165 of these.

123 races rated "Safe Democratic"
Democrats won all 123 of these.

Likely Republican: (13 races)
Republicans won all 13 of these.

Likely Democratic: (27 races)
Democrats won all 27 of these.

Leans Republican: (46 races)
Republicans won 42 of these and Democrats 4.

Leans Democratic: (18 races)
Republicans won 2 of these and Democrats 16

Tossup: (43 races)
Republicans won 21 of these and Democrats 22

Overall, their projections were extremely accurate. They were probably better than anyone else's out there. So, 2 years from now it'll be instructive to pay attention to how they have races rated.


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 2:35 pm 
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Thank you for posting this information. I wonder when they'll start posting the 2012 Presidential polling? Or are they already that I'm just not finding?

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Psalms 144:1 "Blessed be the LORD my strength, which teacheth my hands to war, and my fingers to fight:"


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 3:38 pm 
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Great observation, Eric. Thanks for sharing.


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