Haley Barbour's Okay Night
Posted Thursday, November 04, 2010 5:01 PM |
By David Weigel

As Haley Barbour basks in the glow of the Republicans' best round of gubernatorial elections in 16 years, is it fair to point out that his Republican Governors Association's wins were actually on the low end of expectations? Yes, the RGA won 9 governor's mansions, and that's huge. Florida, in particular, was an important, tricky won. But look at the expectations at the start of the night. Kansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Wyoming were expected to be Republican wins ever since the cycle began. In Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Republicans led consistently in polling all year. Only Florida, Maine, New Mexico, Ohio and Wisconsin were vaguely heavy carries. Those are huge wins for 2012, and some are important for redistricting.

But look at what the Democrats won. The very flawed Mark Dayton is likely to keep his lead in Minnesota. Pat Quinn -- Rod Blagojevich's lieutenant governor! -- won in Illinois. Deval Patrick survived in Massachusetts, despite being seen for a long time as a failure who presaged the Obama disappointment, and John Kitzhaber pipped rising star Chris Dudley in Oregon. Colorado, Maryland, and New York were Republican disasters, and the RGA's investment in Hawaii looks fairly weird after a 17-point drubbing.

In 1994, the GOP netted 12 governorships. This year it netted 5, and outside -- arguably -- of Florida, I don't see any upsets.


http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/weigel ... night.aspx