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South Carolina Election Results Thread
http://www.forum.hucksarmy.com/viewtopic.php?f=179&t=26235
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Author:  IowaforHuckabee [ Sun Jan 22, 2012 6:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: South Carolina Election Results Thread

WalterCan wrote:

Britt Hume and others tried to make the point that the establishment is backing Romney and will back him even harder now because they are afraid Newt will cause House and Senate Candidates to lose.


This would be downright hilarious (panic - what can we use now???!!??), if it wasn't so sad that people will be sucked into believing it.

Yes, since obviously the other garbage they have tried hasn't worked, they are wildly grasping for something else, and this is what they've come up with.

:floor



FOX and the rest will keep trying. Hopefully, the Santorum supporters on here are smarter than these desperate establishment talking heads and won't get sucked in to this "pious baloney". Didn't they say the same thing about Reagan?

What will they think of next? :lol: :roll: :wall :eatingpopcorn

Author:  FL4Huck [ Sun Jan 22, 2012 6:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: South Carolina Election Results Thread

Pam Bondi(Fl) backed Mitt today. I really like her but was blown away by this. She is fighting hard to get ObamaCare thrown out but yet she is backing the guy that started it?

Author:  ibelieve [ Sun Jan 22, 2012 6:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: South Carolina Election Results Thread

IowaforHuckabee wrote:
WalterCan wrote:

Yes, since obviously the other garbage they have tried hasn't worked, they are wildly grasping for something else, and this is what they've come up with.


They have been pouring it on as hard as they could against Newt every single day and night. They spent multi-millions in attack ads against him - BUT the great news is that South Carolina didn't fall for it at all! Hopefully all of America is waking up to the propaganda machines! It may be finally sinking in that all of our so-called "news" is coming from the voices of a very few people that have the power over all the media.

Author:  akprayingmom [ Sun Jan 22, 2012 6:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: South Carolina Election Results Thread

Chuck Norris has spoken of other candidates just like Governor Huckabee has spoken of other candidates but not endorsed any of them. Now Chuck has publicly come out and endorsed Newt.
I wish Governor Huckabee would too.



Newt is the only one who can beat Romney now and if we all don't get behind him, Romney will win be default and we will get Obama and again. And not just for four more years. That is exactly how Chavez came to be president for life and now a tyrannical dictator of Venezuela, which used to a very strong Constitutional Democratic Republic much like others.

I have some very good friends who are Venezuelan nationals here on work visas for the last 10 years and applying for U. S. citizenship. They told me the horror story of how Chavez came to power. It was very much like Obama. In fact Obama has mirrored Chavez's rise to power and my friends are very afraid and sad that what happened in they home country is destined to happen in the United Sates.

I would say it is absolutely imperative that we get behind someone who can stop this from coming true. That person is Newt Gingrich!



"We don't want to run a Republican campaign, we want to run an American campaign"

"Do you believe that this country, because of the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution is a fundamentally exceptional system for human liberty or do you believe we are a normal country like every place else in the world?

"It is a lie to teach American history as though this is a secular nation in which GOD did not reappear again and again for every generation."

We are either in the next few years going to become a secular, socialist country dominated by very left wing values or we're going to reach out and not only defeat the left, but insist on a principled conservatism that can solve the problems, reduce the size of government, and can create greater prosperity, greater freedom and greater safety."

"The American People create jobs, not government."

"I think the Fed should be audited."

"I for one, and I hope all of my friends up here, are going to repudiate every effort of the news media to get republicans to fight each other to protect Barack Obama who deserves to be defeated..."

"Nothing will turn America around more then election night when Barack Obama loses decisively."

"This campaign cannot be only about the presidency. We need to pick up at least 12 seats in the U.S. Senate and 30 or more seats in the House, because if you are serious about repealing Obamacare, you have to be serious about building a big enough majority in the legislative branch that you could actually n the first 90 days pass the legislation."

"The Founding Fathers recognized that while GOD gives us freedom, people are all to often ready to take it away. What we represent is as old as this country. It is something that Lincoln or Jefferson or Washington would have understood. It is something that Grant people who died to preserve. It is the romantic idealistic belief, that a free people, just everyday folks of all backgrounds can come together and despite all the difficulties we built into the Constitution to protect freedom, we can use that freedom to improve our lives and improve the lives of our children.

If I had one message for this country, on this day when we celebrate the act of keeping our word, it would be a simple message. Idealism is American. To be Romantic is American. It OK to be a skeptic but don't be a cynic. It's OK to raise good questions but don't assume the worst. It OK to report difficulties, but it is equally good to report victories. Yes we have problems. And of course it's going to be difficult to pass these things. but why should we be afraid of them? That is freedom! It is in that spirit of committing ourselves idealistically, committing ourselves romantically, believing in America, that we celebrate having kept our word and that we promise to begin a new partnership and together, we and the American people to give our children and our country a new birth of freedom."—Newt Gingrich
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDIuCF8_bJ4

Author:  Southern Doc [ Sun Jan 22, 2012 6:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: South Carolina Election Results Thread

Just a little suggestion on exit poll analysis. It's generally a good idea to look at the splits rather than the aggregate numbers. For example a Santorum 20% of women voter and 14% of male while taking 17% of the vote means he "overperformed" his average with female voters and "underperformed" with male voters. Furthermore that "split" shouldn't really be thought of as 3 points or 6 points but as a percentage of his total vote if you are looking for any strength/weakness trends you want to project forward. So Santorum is doing 50% better with women than men in this poll. That could be a significant result but what it actually means is subject to alot of interpretation.

The second consideration I'd encourage when looking at any exit poll is to resist the temptation to extrapolate the data especially in a crowded field. For example the idea that Paul "won" the category of "would not vote for Romney under any circumstance" with 38% does not mean that he is the "leader" of anti-Romney bitterenders. That is because there are still 62% out there who have also said no to Romney under any circumstance and you can't know where they will go if their current candidate dropped out (except of course you could assume NOT to Romney). A no-Romney under any circumstances Santorum voter does not become a Paul voter just because Santorum were to drop out. In other words it is way to speculative to conclude that if Newt "won" women with 38% of the female vote that the other 67% would be winnable by him.

Now once you are above a certain benchmark then you can rest easier, for example if your Newt getting 47% of the total over 65 years old voters you can know that you don't really have a problem with that group (which is great news for him going into Florida so look for Romney to Social Security scare Newt with that group in coming days). But 38% support among all female voters with a gender split of 4% and only 34% among unmarried females means that these groups are still among those least likely to support Newt. He got their plurality of female support but it is still an area of relative weakness for him.

Newt did well but it is too much to say that he has "won" all the subgroups in which he got a plurality of the vote in a four person race where the other competitors gained 60% of the vote. The same media we love to hate has a problem with overstating the significance of exit polls. I know you are shocked.

Author:  IowaforHuckabee [ Sun Jan 22, 2012 8:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: South Carolina Election Results Thread

No amount of spin can take away the obvious.

Quote:
Congratulations to Newt Gingrich for his "blowout" victory in South Carolina!
"Understanding the significance of this DEEP victory..."

Who won the elderly vote? - Newt Gingrich.

Even though Ron Paul is believed to have a lock on the young vote, who actually won the young vote? - Newt Gingrich

The moralist and self-righteous "religionist" have complained that because Newt is on his third marriage that he would NEVER gain the women's vote, in fact - that women would never trust him. However - Who won the married women's vote? - Newt Gingrich

Who won the single women's vote? - Newt Gingrich

Who won the male vote? - Newt Gingrich

South Carolina is a HUGE active military state. Who won the active military vote? - New Gingrich

Who won the veteran's vote? - Newt Gingrich

Who won the social conservative vote? - Newt Gingrich

Who won the fiscal conservative vote? - Newt Gingrich

Who won the undecided vote (the people undecided on Friday) - Newt Gingrich. And he didn't just win them by a small percentage. He won the MAJORITY......... 51 percent of the undecided vote broke for - - - -wait for it - - - - Newt Gingrich!

Newt Gingrich in this blowout victory won EVERY measurable demographic.
Newt won all the counties that Huckabee, Romney, and McCain together won last cycle.
He beat Ron Paul - who really thought he had support in the active military people by 69%.

He beat the supposed "choice of Evangelical leaders", Rick Santorum -who was thought to have taken that vote easily......by 59%.

He beat the Moderate-Corporatist Mitt Romney by 45%

Anyway you add this up, this is a historic win for Newt Gingrich and shows that the people in South Carolina get it.

Author:  Southern Doc [ Sun Jan 22, 2012 11:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: South Carolina Election Results Thread

I'm sorry you think it spin.

Santorum lost badly in his appeal to all voters only getting 17% of the total vote. But proportionally he had the largest percentage of women voters in the composition of his supporters of any candidate. In addition to doing poorly over all he did worst among men proportioanlly among the candidates.

His major concern going forward is simply finding more support generally and more male voters specifically.

Newt did best in his appeal to all voters getting a plurality of 40% of the vote. Proportionally he did best among males voters, those earning between 50-100,000 dollars, ideologically self ID "very conservative," who were late deciders, influenced by the debates. Going forward that was his "sweet spot," his core base that most put him in a position to get a plurality of votes. But his relative weakness was still in the area of women voters. Those female voters were still the ones most likely to stay with Santorum (though Santorum's voter profile of supporters is otherwise very similar to Newt) or stay with Romney (whose typical voter profile has little overlap with Newt).

The group least likely to join the Newt bandwagon were female Santorum supporters which were 20% of the electorate. If Newt is to beat Romney for the nomination he will need to consolidate an actual majority and not just a plurality of voters in a "two man race." That means he will need to add to his total vote. That could come from the Paulites but seems unlikely. Or it could come from Romney or Santorum supporters. But Santorum supporters are already 2 to 1 female. So for Newt to climb to the magical majority, and not just plurality, he needs to find a way to better appeal to female voters.

But you can dismiss the effort an analysis as spin if you want though I'm quite confident Newt's pollsters are taking note of the same patterns.

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