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PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:16 pm 
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cschande wrote:
EricB wrote:
It looks like Santorum will probably come in 3rd and not 4th. Good for him. He'll probably stay in through Florida.


Speaking as a Santorum supporter, I still find this comment kind of humorous considering that there are only 4 candidates left in the race. At least he did better than Cain! Haha. In all seriousness, I do appreciate your trying to cheer up us Santorum supporters on a night that is clearly not going our way. I just watched an interview on CNN with Santorum, though, in which he seemed pretty committed to going forward from here through Florida and beyond. One of CNN's pundits (Ari Fleischer?), made the point that he has reason to stay in, given Newt's propensity to be his own undoing.

So, yes, feeling a bit discouraged tonight, but still feeling confident in my choice and hopeful for the future!


Don't see much of a pathway to the nomination for Santo......do respect him a bit more since this nomination process started than I did before. I think Gingrich should promise him A.G. if he drops out before Fla.


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:20 pm 
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steves wrote:
cschande wrote:
EricB wrote:
It looks like Santorum will probably come in 3rd and not 4th. Good for him. He'll probably stay in through Florida.


Speaking as a Santorum supporter, I still find this comment kind of humorous considering that there are only 4 candidates left in the race. At least he did better than Cain! Haha. In all seriousness, I do appreciate your trying to cheer up us Santorum supporters on a night that is clearly not going our way. I just watched an interview on CNN with Santorum, though, in which he seemed pretty committed to going forward from here through Florida and beyond. One of CNN's pundits (Ari Fleischer?), made the point that he has reason to stay in, given Newt's propensity to be his own undoing.

So, yes, feeling a bit discouraged tonight, but still feeling confident in my choice and hopeful for the future!


Don't see much of a pathway to the nomination for Santo......do respect him a bit more since this nomination process started than I did before. I think Gingrich should promise him A.G. if he drops out before Fla.


Well on FOX just now Huck said "absolutely Santorum should stay in the race." :D Yet again I agree with Mike.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:22 pm 
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steves wrote:
cschande wrote:
EricB wrote:
It looks like Santorum will probably come in 3rd and not 4th. Good for him. He'll probably stay in through Florida.


Speaking as a Santorum supporter, I still find this comment kind of humorous considering that there are only 4 candidates left in the race. At least he did better than Cain! Haha. In all seriousness, I do appreciate your trying to cheer up us Santorum supporters on a night that is clearly not going our way. I just watched an interview on CNN with Santorum, though, in which he seemed pretty committed to going forward from here through Florida and beyond. One of CNN's pundits (Ari Fleischer?), made the point that he has reason to stay in, given Newt's propensity to be his own undoing.

So, yes, feeling a bit discouraged tonight, but still feeling confident in my choice and hopeful for the future!


Don't see much of a pathway to the nomination for Santo......do respect him a bit more since this nomination process started than I did before. I think Gingrich should promise him A.G. if he drops out before Fla.


If there's a path, it definitely won't be the conventional path that was used in years past. But, given the current dynamics of the race (weak "frontrunner" and a competitor who has a history of being his own worst enemy), I think anything could still happen. You very well could be right, though. We'll just have to wait and see.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:24 pm 
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If Mitt can't get 30% than the talk will come back that he's got a low ceiling of support.

In reality, South Carolina is a conservative state and isn't favorable to Romney. He'd do better than that in most states.


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:27 pm 
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Ron Paul is giving his talk about the Fed.

Wait...now it's about pulling the troops back home.

That explains it! All those active duty contributors (you may not know that more active duty folks gave money to Paul than the other candidates) were overseas and not at the polling station to vote.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:28 pm 
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Thought you guys might enjoy this tweet:

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@RealClearScott: Scene at Romney party in Columbia 35 min before polls close. http://pic.twitter.com/2lHHSeDb

Image

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:28 pm 
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Ron Paul is using this "free" media time to do a stump speech rather than a "rally the troops and let's go to Florida" speech. :wink:

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:31 pm 
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Hope I have Paul's energy when I reach his age.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:32 pm 
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Romney is actually closer to Santorum in the results right now than to Gingrich. Looks like it wasn't so much people switching from Santorum to Gingrich, but it was people switching from Romney to Gingrich. It's a rejection of Romney.



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PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:33 pm 
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EricB wrote:
If Mitt can't get 30% than the talk will come back that he's got a low ceiling of support.

In reality, South Carolina is a conservative state and isn't favorable to Romney. He'd do better than that in most states.


Right now the combined Newt/Santorum vote is 58% to 26% Romney which, if it holds up, means that any vote shift between Newt and Santorum would have still resulted in a Romney defeat. So much for "strategic" voting.

I genuinely feel sorry for the folks who struggled to make a choice between Newt and Santorum as it turned out not to matter if the single goal was to stop Romney from winning in South Carolina.

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Oliver Wendell Holmes



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PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:35 pm 
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cschande wrote:
Thought you guys might enjoy this tweet:

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@RealClearScott: Scene at Romney party in Columbia 35 min before polls close. http://pic.twitter.com/2lHHSeDb

Image


:floor

The phony sign waiving just before Mittens hit the stage was awe inspiring though. :lol:

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:36 pm 
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If any election ever goes to a brokered convention, I would say this year would be it.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:37 pm 
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It shouldn't surprise anyone that the establishment candidate is going down in flames. People aren't happy with the status quo. Romney represents more of the same, and people want change.



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PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:37 pm 
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Southern Doc wrote:
EricB wrote:
If Mitt can't get 30% than the talk will come back that he's got a low ceiling of support.

In reality, South Carolina is a conservative state and isn't favorable to Romney. He'd do better than that in most states.


Right now the combined Newt/Santorum vote is 58% to 26% Romney which, if it holds up, means that any vote shift between Newt and Santorum would have still resulted in a Romney defeat. So much for "strategic" voting.

I genuinely feel sorry for the folks who struggled to make a choice between Newt and Santorum as it turned out not to matter if the single goal was to stop Romney from winning in South Carolina.


The magnitude of Romney's defeat was worth anyone switching their vote for strategic purposes, IMHO.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:39 pm 
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Santorum won Iowa.
Romney won New Hampshire.
Newt won South Carolina.

How does this play out for the fact that usually those who win the nomination win more than just one of these first states?

Is there a chance that this race will keep going for awhile since many of the early states are not winner take all?

What about a brokered convention? If so, would that be good or bad?

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:43 pm 
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I'll be honest, Santorum saying "this was a family decision," just now kinda freaked me out for a second. :shock: :lol:

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:54 pm 
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cschande wrote:
I'll be honest, Santorum saying "this was a family decision," just now kinda freaked me out for a second. :shock: :lol:


:lol: I know what you mean.

Good, gracious speech. Onto Florida.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:58 pm 
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All the talk about a brokered convention is nonsense. That only happens if no one wins a majority of delegates. The race is narrowing to a 2 man race. Super Tuesday isn't until March. By then, it will be Gingrich vs. Romney. Whoever wins that battle will be the nominee.

Also, the talk about Romney being the favorite is nonsense. Gingrich will probably win Florida. Money will pour into the Gingrich campaign to stop Romney. Romney is a paper tiger. He only won New Hampshire decisively because New Hampshire is full of moderates and liberals. The rest of the country is probably a lot closer to Florida than New Hampshire and Gingrich was leading in Florida in December along with leading nationally. Gingrich is the favorite for those thinking dynamically and paying attention. It's really not that hard to see this stuff coming. Most people thought South Carolina would be very close and Romney might win. I said Newt would win big. Florida is going to swing back to Newt. Florida is also a closed primary and still a southern state. Romney could win there, but right now this far out I'd give Newt about a 75% chance of winning it.



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PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 10:00 pm 
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Anybody know what's going on with the 5 counties that haven't reported a single thing yet?

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 10:04 pm 
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I see all 4 of these guys staying in thru Super Tuesday, don't you think? After all, even the disinterested voters who don't follow the political football game are going to see this as still being an up in the air race.

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Gingrich is the favorite for those thinking dynamically and paying attention.
Surely you did not mean that as arrogant & insulting as it comes across?

What effect will this have on Florida's voters? No doubt Gingrich has momentum now, but can he keep it?
NV will stay with Romney no doubt.
Will Michigan be willing to overlook Romney's negative comments on the auto bailout now?

And if anyone's following these details really closely, Texas is in the middle of a court battle over redistricting which if they don't get it settled soon means we won't even have a primary!! :roll:


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