FL is reall a tale of two parts. South of Lake Ockeechobee is full of alot of NE moderate and democratic transplants. Its becoming more of a liberal state. If Newt wins I expect it to be close.

One way to see the race thus far. Santorum won IA, PA closer to IA than the other cands states. Romney won New England, where he's from. Gingrich won SC, he's from neighboring state. Local!

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THE TIMES are nightfall, look, their light grows less;
The times are winter, watch, a world undone:
They waste, they wither worse; they as they run
Or bring more or more blazon man’s distress.
And I not help. Nor word now of success:
All is from wreck, here, there, to rescue one—
Work which to see scarce so much as begun
Makes welcome death, does dear forgetfulness.
Or what is else? There is your world within.
There rid the dragons, root out there the sin.
Your will is law in that small commonweal…
G.M. Hopkins.

Gingrich coming out now to give his speech....


Edit: not yet... wonder what is taking so long.

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~*Roanna

http://twitter.com/raspberrygirl12
http://roannaj.blogspot.com/

Didn't mean for it to sound that way. I had in mind mainstream analysts who seem to be blindsided by everything that happens. They thought Romney had this in the bag. He's a weak candidate who has a hard time relating to the average voter.

I just wanna take Rove's dry erase board and whack him with it!

When Romney wins it's historic. When anyone else wins it's no big deal. Such astute analysis from the brain.

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Most people believe what they see, the Left see's what it believes.....

Thanks! I was sure you must have had a different context in mind than the general one I was assuming, esp since you've never posted anything in that vein before & I very much appreciate the clarification!

Ah, goalieman, on this you and I are in perfect unity!

As a native Floridia Cracker I must sadly say that Florida is not a Southern State. I did my dissertation on the transition of Florida politically from Old South to New South between the 1920's and 1970's. Since then the cross-currents have only increased. Florida is Florida. But Newt is also not really a Southern candidate either.

The state is conservative but anything goes there now. I'd think Newt has the ability to close on Romney but the early voting in that state may already have blunted some of his momentum. Santorum will have the hardest time unless the debates are as dramatic in his favor as they were for Newt in SC. It's not that he will see a flight of evangelicals to Newt on the electablity argument (there aren't enough of those in Florida to really matter and his core supporters clearly stayed with him in SC - if you look at the returns in SC Santorum's best counties were Mikes best counties while Newt actually made inroads into areas where McCain did well last time. ) Newt will have to take Romney voters but they are weakly with Mitt. Santorum will also have to find a way to peel those off.

Mitt will need to do better in the debate Monday to stop the bleeding. Newt will now ride high which is historically when Newt flames out. He's got his opportunity to keep his path open now. He does not have to win Florida but he may not be able to resist going all in. Romney has the reserves to survive that even if he loses.

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"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes

I had an interesting conversation today with a former Huckabee chair here in NC and he's very active in the NCGOP. It was quite a sobering conversation. You guys know the DNC is coming to Charlotte. What I didn't know is that Obama has already opened 14 offices, fully staffed and might open several more if they feel like they need them. There have never been that many offices for ANY candidate in NC history. This election is not going to be as easy for the GOP as many would like to believe. Yes, we have an historically deficient president who is maybe worse than most of us envisioned. But DO NOT underestimate him. He wants the state of NC badly and some others too. They have an unprecedented ground game. A few good debates WILL not defeat Obama. You have to have an incredible ground game and an energized base. It's a tall order.

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http://homeschoolershearthuckabee.blogspot.com

Obama is already on the air here in Michigan, and I've seen ACORN voter registration drives already at the college campuses.

We are seeing Obama commercials here in Charlotte as well. And I'm already sick of it. We'll have to DVR everything to run through the commercials.

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http://homeschoolershearthuckabee.blogspot.com

Cain has 5000 votes a full 1%.

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"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes

Well, no one can ever accuse Newt of pulling any punches during his speeches!

Sour grapes from Britt Hume.............his establishment boy (Mittens) is failing him.

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Most people believe what they see, the Left see's what it believes.....

The early voting in Florida just started today, so I am wondering why you think there will be much muting of Gingrich's gains? Absentee ballots? I wouldn't expect there to be many votes cast prior to tonight's results.

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Ken

Sorry Ken I tend to just say "early" when I should say early and absentee voting.

_________________
"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes

Can anyone give me the details of the next debate (ie. network, time, moderators)?

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I have my tin foil hat on, wearing it proudly, and will take it off on Inauguration Day 2017.

"If there was hope, it must lie in the proles..." George Orwell's Nineteen Eighty-Four

Well we've got 99% in and it is now clear that the divide between Newt and Santorum supporters was not a factor under any combination of outcomes.

The key results were Newt 41 - -Romney 27 - -Santorum 17

That means the "anti-Romney" vote was 58% to 27% Romney
The anti-Romney vote split any which way (even perfectly 29% Newt/ Santorum 29%)would have still resulted in a Romney defeat.

If none, one, or all of Gingrich supporters had gone to Santorum - Romney would have lost.

If none, one, or all of Santorum's supporters had gone to Newt - Romney would have lost.

So as we go on to Florida can we please just let the candidates run and talk about their strengths and weaknesses without making the "we must consolidate the conservatives in order to win argument."

Beat Mitt by beating Mitt. Beat Rick by beating Rick. Beat Newt by beating Newt.

May the best candidate for the nation win.

There is every reason to believe that the combination of Newt and Santorum in the debates contributed to Romney's defeat.

On to Florida.

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"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes

Here's a site I've found that lists all the debates, for both primary and general elections (when they're announced). They also have tabs on this link where you can navigate to the primary schedules so you can figure out which state votes when. Bookmark it on your computer, it's a pretty useful site:

http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews ... -schedule/

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"Plan your work, work your plan."

I think it was very important that Romney not just lose but lose big. A double digit loss has a lot of psychological impact. As I said in a different post yesterday, a lot of Romney's support is soft and based on his supposed inevitability. That soft support is going to start slipping away from him. I watched coverage on both CNN and Fox, and they had a focus group on CNN with undecided Florida voters, and you could see by the results that there is now more doubt about Romney's main argument that he is the most electable. It's harder to make the case that you're the strongest electable candidate when you lose by double digits.

I looked at RealClearPolitics polling in Florida, and there is almost no polling in Florida that has taken place since last weekend. That means that the Florida polling that is out doesn't have either debate factored in, and now on top of that will be added Romney's massive loss. Romney has been steadily losing ground in the nationwide Gallup poll, and I suspect that will continue. It would not surprise me at all if polls in Floriday by Wednesday have Newt ahead. If Santorum can edge Romney into 2nd place in Florida then Santorum can make a case that it's between him and Newt. So I think this big win benefits both Newt and Santorum.