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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 12:47 am 
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Lots of unknowns in Florida. This is a large state with multiple media markets. Money (ie media time) is more potent here as it is more difficult to counter it with either a counter media campaign ($$) or a good ground game. Romney has the money and the organization. The only thing Newt or Rick have is social media, passion, and for now, the big Mo.


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 1:11 am 
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Having watched all of Fox's coverage and a major portion of CNN's coverage I wanted to comment on the commentary from each network.

For several years I have been continuously frustrated by the fact that out of those who are suppose to represent conservatives and Republicans, it is about 90% establishment types that end up giving the commentary. The only person I heard giving a decent grass roots conservative view was Eric Erickson from Redstate on CNN. In fact besides Eric, the closest two other people to give a grass roots perspective were Democrats! Roland Martin and James Carville from CNN were more in touch with what happened tonight than just about all of the commentators on Fox.

Everyone seemed to want to minimize Romney's loss and talk about how it would be different in Florida. It will be a little different, but it's not like it is going to be anywhere near close to New Hampshire. In fact I predict Florida will come a lot closer to SC in terms of results then it does to NH.

Britt Hume and others tried to make the point that the establishment is backing Romney and will back him even harder now because they are afraid Newt will cause House and Senate Candidates to lose. That is what they want people to believe. The real truth is the establishment has spent a lot of money to buy Romney and make sure he is in there hip pocket. Tonight they are thinking their inestment may just go south. As Carville said on CNN, the establishment is going to throw everything at Newt they have available. It is going to get nasty. The establishment will do whatever they have to in order to protect their investment.

I'm tired of the establishment, and I'm tired of their spokesman masquerading as independent commentators. It's time for some real conservatives to start being represented on these networks.



Post by WalterCan has received Likes: 4 FL4Huck, goalieman, IowaforHuckabee, QuoVadisAnima
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 1:13 am 
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I am getting a kick out of watching John King try to explain why Newt won tonight. :floor

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 1:19 am 
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I couldn't resist - I just tweeted:

@GOP we don't want Romney - can you hear us NOW?

8)



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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 1:20 am 
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WalterCan wrote:
I think it was very important that Romney not just lose but lose big. A double digit loss has a lot of psychological impact. As I said in a different post yesterday, a lot of Romney's support is soft and based on his supposed inevitability. That soft support is going to start slipping away from him. I watched coverage on both CNN and Fox, and they had a focus group on CNN with undecided Florida voters, and you could see by the results that there is now more doubt about Romney's main argument that he is the most electable. It's harder to make the case that you're the strongest electable candidate when you lose by double digits.

I looked at RealClearPolitics polling in Florida, and there is almost no polling in Florida that has taken place since last weekend. That means that the Florida polling that is out doesn't have either debate factored in, and now on top of that will be added Romney's massive loss. Romney has been steadily losing ground in the nationwide Gallup poll, and I suspect that will continue. It would not surprise me at all if polls in Floriday by Wednesday have Newt ahead. If Santorum can edge Romney into 2nd place in Florida then Santorum can make a case that it's between him and Newt. So I think this big win benefits both Newt and Santorum.


Yea but wouldn't it have been even more devastating to Romney if the total Newt/Santorum vote had actually split evenly as Romney would have then been in third place? :D One first, one second, one third, three days after being poised to win an historic three in a row sounds way worse. Now that would have been an even bigger blow to "inevitability and electability" as talking points.

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 1:21 am 
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WalterCan wrote:
Having watched all of Fox's coverage and a major portion of CNN's coverage I wanted to comment on the commentary from each network.

For several years I have been continuously frustrated by the fact that out of those who are suppose to represent conservatives and Republicans, it is about 90% establishment types that end up giving the commentary. The only person I heard giving a decent grass roots conservative view was Eric Erickson from Redstate on CNN. In fact besides Eric, the closest two other people to give a grass roots perspective were Democrats! Roland Martin and James Carville from CNN were more in touch with what happened tonight than just about all of the commentators on Fox.


The folks at Fox were trying to say something critical about Romney's inevitability but it got bleeped out in the control room. You only heard the official version.

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 1:29 am 
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WalterCan wrote:
I'm tired of the establishment, and I'm tired of their spokesman masquerading as independent commentators. It's time for some real conservatives to start being represented on these networks.


I hear you loud and clear WalterCan. Imagine what FoxNews would be doing if Mitt had won in double digits today. It is unfortunate that so many people still believe Fox is representing the conservatives when all they are really doing is trying to steer the masses to Romney. They have done everything in their power to tear down anyone that gets close to Romney. I pretty much figured that out last election when they did the same thing to Huckabee.

It was a great night for Newt and I love the double digit loss to Romney! I am so sick of the establishment and media telling us that Mitt Romney is the chosen one like there is nothing we can do about it. Thank you South Carolina for proving them wrong! I do think that knocking Romney off his perch will help both Gingrich and Santorum.

For anyone that is interested in the breakdown of how people voted:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/sc?hpt=hp_t2



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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 1:36 am 
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QuoVadisAnima wrote:
I couldn't resist - I just tweeted:

@GOP we don't want Romney - can you hear us NOW?

8)


BRAVO!!!!
I have contacted FoxNews and the GOP so many times during the last election and this one too. It never does any good but it makes me feel better in the moment. They are on an establishment mission just like they were last time and they will not stop until Romney is forced out of the race by the people... again!


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 2:53 am 
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Very interesting that Newt did best among women in the SC primary (per the Daily Caller via RCP) with 36% of the women vote. Equally surprised that Santorum only got, and I almost think this is a typo, 1% of that same vote. That's a problem for Santorum if true.

I agree with WalterCan 100% that the amount that Romney lost by is very significant. People going to the polls only can know what the latest polling data tells them and it looked like it was still close enough to where doing some strategic voting was in order. Sure, it would be great if Romney finished a close third (hehe), but no one could know how the vote would turn out. Romney's support will continue to evaporate after tonight.

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:04 am 
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Southern Doc wrote:
Beat Mitt by beating Mitt. Beat Rick by beating Rick. Beat Newt by beating Newt.


I'm confused. I thought it was Mitt's job to beat Mitt.

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:16 am 
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goalieman wrote:
Very interesting that Newt did best among women in the SC primary (per the Daily Caller via RCP) with 36% of the women vote. Equally surprised that Santorum only got, and I almost think this is a typo, 1% of that same vote. That's a problem for Santorum if true.

I'm not sure what you mean. Over at CNN they have these numbers
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primar ... ?hpt=hp_t2
which indicate that, while Gingrich did get the majority of GOP women's votes, Santorum & Romney were the only ones who got more votes from women than men.

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I agree with WalterCan 100% that the amount that Romney lost by is very significant. People going to the polls only can know what the latest polling data tells them and it looked like it was still close enough to where doing some strategic voting was in order. Sure, it would be great if Romney finished a close third (hehe), but no one could know how the vote would turn out. Romney's support will continue to evaporate after tonight.

I agree with this as well. This sends an important message to the establishment that Romney is not only not inevitable, he's not acceptable either. I would love to see this turn into a two man fight - with Romney NOT being one of the two! Unfortunately, the only way to get DeepPockets Romney to bow out, will be if his support evaporates RADICALLY, and I'm not holding my breath on that happening prior to Super Tuesday IF it's going to happen at all.


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:22 am 
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If Romney loses by 5 point or more in Florida, and his numbers nationally and in other states start to tank, it is entirely possible the establishment could panic and try to insert someone new into the race like a Mitch Daniels. This is very unlikely, but it's possible. In that scenario you could see Santorum surge into 2nd place.

The key for Santorum is to continue to do well in the debates.


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:34 am 
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I completely agree! I'll grant that Santorum's odds from this vantage point are a little steep, but this race has been so volatile & the possibilities for an opening are large - all Santorum needs to do is keep giving it his all and stay steady.

This has been a strong statement against Romney & is guaranteed to have changed the logistics ahead.

FWIW, this (poor quality) video clip of an interview with Nikki Haley yesterday gives us a glimpse into the thinking of the party leadership in trying to force Romney on us


They're worried about the Dems having all this time to set up their groundgame & raise funds while we're still hashing out our nominee - evidently they have decided that 2008 was a fluke. :roll:


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:44 am 
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Well, Gov. Haley could just tell her guy Mitt to bow out of the race and we'll get to see who our nominee is quicker that way. 8)

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:52 am 
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QuoVadisAnima wrote:
goalieman wrote:
Very interesting that Newt did best among women in the SC primary (per the Daily Caller via RCP) with 36% of the women vote. Equally surprised that Santorum only got, and I almost think this is a typo, 1% of that same vote. That's a problem for Santorum if true.

I'm not sure what you mean. Over at CNN they have these numbers
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primar ... ?hpt=hp_t2
which indicate that, while Gingrich did get the majority of GOP women's votes, Santorum & Romney were the only ones who got more votes from women than men.


Looks like they corrected that percentage that Santorum got, it's now 19%. Thought that had to be wrong. Still, he needs to do better in that area.

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 5:29 am 
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goalieman wrote:
QuoVadisAnima wrote:
goalieman wrote:
Very interesting that Newt did best among women in the SC primary (per the Daily Caller via RCP) with 36% of the women vote. Equally surprised that Santorum only got, and I almost think this is a typo, 1% of that same vote. That's a problem for Santorum if true.

I'm not sure what you mean. Over at CNN they have these numbers
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primar ... ?hpt=hp_t2
which indicate that, while Gingrich did get the majority of GOP women's votes, Santorum & Romney were the only ones who got more votes from women than men.

Looks like they corrected that percentage that Santorum got, it's now 19%. Thought that had to be wrong. Still, he needs to do better in that area.
You are too funny! :lol:


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 10:57 am 
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ibelieve wrote:
For anyone that is interested in the breakdown of how people voted:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/sc?hpt=hp_t2


Thank you for the link. I bookmarked it in my 2012 results sub-folder of my 2012 race folder.

One thing I noticed is that Santorum actually won 2 sets of voters: those that think of abortion as the "most important issue" by a huge margin and those that think of "Strong Moral Character" as the "Most Important Candidate Quality" by double digits as well.

Ron Paul only had a lead among the youth vote and those that wouldn't support Romney if he were the nominee.

Romney led among postgraduates, those making over $200,000, moderates, moderates or liberals, those that oppose the Tea Party, those that aren't born again, those that don't think "religious beliefs of a candidate matter, those that think abortion should be legal and/or mostly legal, those that view "Romney's Background as Investor" positively, those that would enthusiastically support Romney if he wins the nomination, those that made their decision over a month ago, those that made their decision sometime in 2011, those that didn't think the debates were an important factor in making their decision, and of course the urban communities.

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 5:31 pm 
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USA#1 wrote:
Lots of unknowns in Florida. This is a large state with multiple media markets. Money (ie media time) is more potent here as it is more difficult to counter it with either a counter media campaign ($$) or a good ground game. Romney has the money and the organization. The only thing Newt or Rick have is social media, passion, and for now, the big Mo.


You missed a big one - debates. There is no way that people can continue to say the debates don't have that much affect after what we just saw.


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 5:38 pm 
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QuoVadisAnima wrote:
I couldn't resist - I just tweeted:

@GOP we don't want Romney - can you hear us NOW?

8)


I think we should start tweeting and retweeting that Romney has dropped out, will not be in Florida, and it's now a 2-man race in Florida! :D


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 5:47 pm 
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IowaforHuckabee wrote:
QuoVadisAnima wrote:
I couldn't resist - I just tweeted:

@GOP we don't want Romney - can you hear us NOW?

8)


I think we should start tweeting and retweeting that Romney has dropped out, will not be in Florida, and it's now a 2-man race in Florida! :D


Now that would be hilarious!!! Maybe you will start a new tweet movement!


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