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 Post subject: New PPP Poll out
PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 2:56 pm 
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http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/06/obama-up-in-2012-contests.html

Thursday, June 10, 2010
Obama up in 2012 contests
Barack Obama leads all of his potential Republican opponents in hypothetical 2012 match ups, and it's becoming increasingly clear from this monthly poll that there are two tiers of GOP candidates when it comes to electability.

Polling close to Obama are Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. The President leads Huckabee 46-44 and Romney 45-42. They both do a good job of consolidating the GOP vote and holding a solid advantage with independents.

Doing less well are Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin, and Ron Paul. Obama has a 47-39 advantage over Gingrich, a 50-41 against Palin, and 46-36 edge matched against Paul.

One thing that's very interesting about these numbers is that Ron Paul is the most popular out of the whole group with independents. They see him favorably by a 35/25 margin. The only other White House hopeful on positive ground with them is Romney at a +2 spread and they're very negative on the rest: -5 for Huckabee, -16 for Gingrich and Palin, and -17 for Obama. All five of the possible GOP contenders lead Obama with independents, but Paul does so by the widest margin at 46-28.

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 Post subject: Re: New PPP Poll out
PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 3:01 pm 
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Going inside the numbers, Huckabee does the best against Obama in all categories -- and he has the greatest growth potential.

Gingrich and Palin are in dreadful territory vis-a-vis Obama and unfavorabilities.

Now let me add that PPP uses a higher proportion of democrats and moderates than I think is the actual case -- but even with that, Huckabee proves his staying power.

Well -- if Huckabee runs and gets the nomination -- then the GOP has me for another cycle. Otherwise, I am probably skipping out.


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 Post subject: Re: New PPP Poll out
PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 3:42 pm 
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another great poll for Huckabee. The sad thing is, no matter how many polls show him in the lead, they will still say he cannot win.


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 Post subject: Re: New PPP Poll out
PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 4:02 pm 
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another great poll for Huckabee. The sad thing is, no matter how many polls show him in the lead, they will still say he cannot win.


Remember one very important factor: The electability issue is THE most important factor that voters take into consideration. In 2008, the nomination went to the person who was doing the best against the democrats in these polls -- not to the person that pundits were declaring the frontrunner.

And in 2008, Huckabee was 9 to 10 points behind, as was Romney.


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 Post subject: Re: New PPP Poll out
PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 4:05 pm 
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very encouraging :) Thanks voter! I guess I am just getting discouraged when I think about the state polls. National polls Huckabee does well, but state polls Romney looks like he has a better position. What do you guys think?


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 Post subject: Re: New PPP Poll out
PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 4:50 pm 
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Oh, don't bother with the states poll. It's too early for that. Iowa and New Hampshire will decide. Well, to some extent South Carolina as well. Now, THAT is a state poll I'm worried about. The others are too late, the result in those state are likely to be too influenced by the early states so that the polls done before don't really matter.

Huckabee will win Iowa. With a healthy 15 % in New Hampshire, that pawns the road to a South Carolina victory. If he could pull of a victory in Wyoming as well, even better. After South Carolina, it's likely to be over. Otherwise we'll move on the Florida, which will be interesting for sure, but I think Huckabee stands a good chance there. Especially if Romney has already narrowly lost NH to Gingrich (or the other way around), that way, they will both stay in the race and keep splitting the vote. Hopefully Palin, assuming she runs, will drop out after Iowa.

If there was yet another moderate running (Pawlenty, Guiliani), that's just so much better.


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 Post subject: Re: New PPP Poll out
PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 5:02 pm 
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Romney has been virtually invisible to the general public who do not regularly follow politics while Mike Huckabee has been cheerfully on view with his hugely popular Sat/Sun TV show on FOX. Mike bought Reagan's playbook and is reading it very carefully. After Reagan lost he suddenly appeared on every radio station he could possibly get a contract with in the US. As a result, he attracted both Independents and the now very, very famous Reagan Democrats. Wise pundits have never dismissed "folksy" since, although the political establishment seems to have a shorter memory.

Remember, pollsters only report "yeas" or "nays". The "duh--who?" response gets shelved. As politically incorrect as it sounds, Mike Huckabee could explain quantum physics in a way simple enough for the average voter to grasp. Romney plays to the Ivy League set. Romney is a politician, Huckabee is a communicator. (Yes, we have been here before.)


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 Post subject: Re: New PPP Poll out
PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 8:14 pm 
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I don't agree that Palin would drop out after Iowa if she doesn't win. She is aiming for S.C. (that's why the full steam ahead for Haley). If she should win in S.C., that could change the ballgame and make FL a game changer.

Mike Huckabee needs to spend LOTS of time in S.C. and Florida as well as Iowa, of course.

There is an article out about Mitch Daniels from Indiana on Rightosphere. It is very interesting. I live in Indiana and Gov. Daniels has done a great job in our state. One of the reasons I like him so much is because he thinks outside the box for solutions to problems (Huckabee does too). He would be a great VP for Huckabee. If Daniels would enter the race, he would draw votes away from Romney. He has low name recognition, but Huckabee did too in 2008 and look how far he went. I don't think Daniels could win and I'm not sure he even wants to run (the public wants him to run). He made a statement about everybody needed to agree to put the Social issues on a shelf until the economy was back on it's feet. This statement could hurt him a lot with Soc. Cons. Tony Perkins got in a statement against that line of thinking. He has some good ideas for health care and the economy without appearing as a policy wonk.

So glad to see MH doing so good in these PPP polls.


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 Post subject: Re: New PPP Poll out
PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 9:07 pm 
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I agree, I am scared of Hucks support in South Carolina.


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 Post subject: Re: New PPP Poll out
PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 10:32 pm 
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Mike Huckabee needs to spend LOTS of time in S.C. and Florida as well as Iowa, of course.


Okay, time for the pep talk. :pompom

Firstly, if Mike jumps in, I can guarantee you that he will practically LIVE in S.C., especially after IA. From his perspective, if he had won S.C., he would have gotten the nomination. You can be sure he is sending Janet, Sarah (with perhaps a baby :D ) and husband down to S.C. and, immediately after IA, that is where he will be. He will not lose S.C.

Secondly, he is now a FL resident. And I wouldn't spend one minute worrying about IA. If Vander Plaats and the social conservatives grabbed 41% in a primary concentrating on the economy, up against a four-term governor, you can be sure that the IA caucuses will be all Mike's.

Thirdly, you need to remember the momentum of IA and NH -- that is why, in my lifetime, no one has gone on to get the nomination if he did not win at least IA and/or NH. Moving into SC, you will have Huckabee in IA and Romney in NH (two things I am certain of: Romney will not bother with IA, Huckabee will not bother with NH). By the time you get to S.C., Palin and Gingrich are way down on momentum -- Huckabee is up. And, again, voters look at electability. Palin and Gingrich have zero electability with their dreadful net unfavorables.

Fourtly, please discard polls at this time -- whether favorable or otherwise. Two years down the line, state polling is a crap shoot at best. Look only at the facts: in 2008, Huckabee -- a relatively unknown candidate -- (losing by 9 to ten points against a democrat rival in polls) lost S.C. by only three points. You are worried about Gingrich? Well, Huckabee had Fred Thompson last time -- the "true" southern conservative who dashed over to S.C. immediately after IA -- and all he pulled out was 15 points. Huckabee also was up against McCain, who was a military war hero in a state that has lots of military votes -- a group, by the way, that Huckabee has been courting weekly on his show. I reviewed the exit polls from S.C. -- in particular, of all the groups, there were only two categories that Romney took in S.C. -- those earning over 150,000 to 200,000 and those earning 200,000 and above. If you look at the exit polls, Huckabee was in competition with McCain -- not Romney -- he was second choice to McCain at a greater percentage than Romney or Thompson. And today, in 2010, he consistently does better against Obama than anyone else -- and he has the best net favorabilities (neither of which he had in 2008, when he lost by only 3 points).

Fifthly, Palin can butter up Haley all she wants -- if Haley endorses anyone in SC, it will be Romney. And there is no way a northweastern moderate is taking that state. That is why he finished at 15% in 2008. By the way, PPP has an article addressing Palin's effect on the states it polled, namely, CA and SC. In SC, merely 27% of Haley's voters wanted Palin to run in 2012.

I understand that everyone is very nervous about S.C., but that is only because of PPP's poll. It makes more sense to focus on 2008's reality than PPP's poll for whatever it is worth two years down the line. Remember PPP had VanderPlaats losing by 17 points, and DMR -- the highly touted IA poll -- had VanderPlaats losing by 27 points -- and this was two days before the actual race.

Trust me, if Huckabee doesn't believe he can win S.C., he will not come in -- thus, if he does, you can take it from him that he believes he has S.C. in the bag. :D


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 Post subject: Re: New PPP Poll out
PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 10:48 pm 
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After seeing Haley do so well in SC, even with the scandal following her around, it made me very concerned that the so called "tea party" is simply going to mess any chance of us getting real conservative LEADERS elected. Seems they are determined to get every plain jane or dick nobody elected. Having qualifications and experience, it seems are a detriment to them. I'm sorry to be so down on them but, Haley was the LEAST qualified for this nomination. We had GOOD candidates, an attorney general who worked with Reagan, the lt. governor (my personal fav), and former State RNC Chair, Barrett. To think that she came out ahead of these guys, is just discouraging. Glad to see Gov. Huckabee doing so well in this poll. I thought he would never have any trouble winning SC but with the craziness of this election, I have my concerns...


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 Post subject: Re: New PPP Poll out
PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 11:05 pm 
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Haley's win is being presented as a result of the "tea party" but that is window dressing. The truth is far more political.

Most importantly, Nikki Haley is a protege of Mark Sanford; she was being groomed to take over for him after he became term limited, pre Argentina. After the scandal broke, Haley attempted to distance herself from Sanford publicly, but she is still very much a player in the Sanford political branch -- which is spearheaded by Jenny Sanford and Jenny's father.

As for Bauer, Barrett and McMaster, they are victims of the strong Sanford political force. As with everything, "establishment" and "insiders" are being pumped up as evil -- while "outsiders" are the desirable fresh face. Yet the reality is that Haley is an extension of the Sanford brand of politics. It is all really very circular.

Now that doesn't make her a bad candidate -- and it doesn't make the Sanford political family a bad choice. She may indeed become an excellent govenor -- and Sanford certainly had his backers once upon a time. But the truth is Haley is being propelled by some very strong political forces playing against each other -- very much like in every other state. The tea party is only the media hype.


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 Post subject: Re: New PPP Poll out
PostPosted: Tue Jun 22, 2010 3:09 pm 
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Why are you all worried about South Carolina? Huckabee almost beat McCain in South Carolina, and he was a huge underdog in 2008. In fact, if Fred Thompson hadn't been in the race, Huckabee would have won South Carolina. I bet he would have won the nomination too. I realize that Gingrich is from neighboring Georgia, but the reality is that Gingrich won't be in the race. They always include him in these polls, but he never runs. Take him out and Huckabee is the only Southerner on the ballot. That's important in South Carolina. Romney won't stand a chance in SC unless he's already won in Iowa and New Hampshire. Palin could beat Huckabee in SC, but only if she already had won in Iowa.

The fact that Huckabee will be taken more seriously this time around will help him immensely. 2008 failed for Huckabee primarily because there were too many candidates. At first it was just Guiliani and McCain. Neither one were conservative enough. Then Romney jumped in, but conservatives never really liked him either for a lot of reasons. The conservatives had to choose between Romney, Huckabee, Thompson, or McCain, so the conservative vote was very fractured from the beginning. This dynamic was best seen in South Carolina where the conservative vote got split many ways allowing McCain to win.

Things are different in 2012. We'll have well-known conservatives in the race right from the beginning. If Huckabee runs and Palin doesn't (or drops out quickly), I don't see how Huckabee can lose barring some kind of major scandal.


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 Post subject: Re: New PPP Poll out
PostPosted: Tue Jun 22, 2010 4:40 pm 
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These polls are retrospective. They tell us the appraisal of how folks felt about the career of these politicians in the past and not whether they really will support them in the future.

Here's what we know:

Romney was not damaged by his 2008 run and most folks can still "see him" as President.

Huckabee was greatly aided by his 2008 run (and continued exposure) and can "see him" as President.

Palin was on a losing national ticket and resigned from office. That is a rough combination and appears fatal for someone with no other experience to trumpet. (I can't think of a losing VP who became President- Bob Dole is the only one I can think of to get a nomination)

Newt's resignation, personal life, and personality still ;leave folks with little affection and serious reservations.

No one else emerged from 2008 as a viable choice for 2012 and no one else is currently thought to be "tall enough to ride this ride".

That gives us at present a pretty small top tier (Romney, Huck).

Someone can emerge (and almost certainly will given our fondness for the "new") but in the likely enviroment they will need to have extensive success as an executive to do more than flash in the pan. (Jindal remains the one man most likely to go from 1% to 40% on his resume alone).

But ultimately the first and second tier will have to fight it out and actually campaign. In that enviroment I like Mike's chances.

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 Post subject: Re: New PPP Poll out
PostPosted: Tue Jun 22, 2010 8:44 pm 
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Frankly, I've been wondering if Mike Pence could be the darkhorse candidate in 2012? He has all the conservative bona fides and, from what little I have seen of him, speaks well, too. He also has no baggage from his past that I can see (of course we all know how fast that can change). Thoughts?


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 Post subject: Re: New PPP Poll out
PostPosted: Tue Jun 22, 2010 9:05 pm 
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If Huckabee runs, why would any conservative want to run as well? Why would they want to split the vote? That doesn't sound like good judgment to me.

If Pence is such a good man, he ought to stay away from this I think.

/John


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 Post subject: Re: New PPP Poll out
PostPosted: Tue Jun 22, 2010 9:57 pm 
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I like Mike Pence -- and I would love him as Mike's VP -- but, aside from the obvious that he is not my first choice for president, I doubt that any congressman or senator will be nominated and/or elected in 2012. Obama proved only too well the importance of executive experience -- long-term executive experience.

2012 will shape up in very interesting fashion. The politics and populism of the moment -- should they extend to 2012 - subjects the establihsment to the alternate powers of the social conservatives and tea party activists (some of whom ride both waves). In either case they are anti-big government, pro small government, fiscal responsibility and, in many cases, they agree on pro life issues, certainly first and second amendment constitutional rights. In other words, the establishment is no longer the "big mouth" in the crowd.

As expressed above, Obama has shut the door on anyone other than a long-term executive (i.e., governor); a situation that, in and of itself, shuts the door on a successful Palin run (very limited, short-term viable executive experience) and Gingrich (no executive experience) -- without even getting into each one's net unfavorabilities and polarization.

As one article recently stated, Mike Huckabee's economic views expressed during the 2007 debates were downright "prescient." Voters are crying out for transparency, control, leadership, common sense communication and connection. They want to elect someone who not only understands them -- although that is crucial -- but offers workeable, manageable solutions, someone upon whom they can rely, whose intergrity will shine through the malaise, the discontent, the disconnect. They want a leader who will guide them to maneuver themselves through the economic turmoil all the while inspiring them to rise above themselves, reaching for a better place. I feel this so strongly in my heart.

Out of the fires I can see but two viable candidates coming forth: Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. In my opinion, Romney's best time was 2008, if he did not have to deal with McCain, and he hadn't had Huckabee in IA and the South. 2012 is far more suitable for Huckabee. I like his chances very much.


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 Post subject: Re: New PPP Poll out
PostPosted: Tue Jun 22, 2010 10:40 pm 
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My preference would be someone with executive experience & Huckabee in particular - but even Huckabee acknowledges that the baggage on his record from the pardons may be insurmountable.

I can't help but wonder if enough conservatives would be desperate for an alternative to the "leftovers" from 2008, that Pence might be able to take it. (Esp. if he has a business background/track record to his credit)


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 Post subject: Re: New PPP Poll out
PostPosted: Wed Jun 23, 2010 11:05 am 
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QuoVadisAnima wrote:
My preference would be someone with executive experience & Huckabee in particular - but even Huckabee acknowledges that the baggage on his record from the pardons may be insurmountable.

I can't help but wonder if enough conservatives would be desperate for an alternative to the "leftovers" from 2008, that Pence might be able to take it. (Esp. if he has a business background/track record to his credit)

Are you saying that those pardond will doom any effort of Gov. Huckabee running for President? I hope you are wrong because I think it was unfair that Mike got blamed for it. I think Washington state is more responsible for what happened they were the ones that had him incarserated and let him out. It won't hurt Mike in a General election against Obama but might have a effect in the primaries how much I really don't know I hope he runs. :pompom


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 Post subject: Re: New PPP Poll out
PostPosted: Wed Jun 23, 2010 11:25 am 
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QuoVadisAnima wrote:
My preference would be someone with executive experience & Huckabee in particular - but even Huckabee acknowledges that the baggage on his record from the pardons may be insurmountable.

I can't help but wonder if enough conservatives would be desperate for an alternative to the "leftovers" from 2008, that Pence might be able to take it. (Esp. if he has a business background/track record to his credit)


IMO the pardons/clemency issues, his comments about the Mormon religion, recent cocaine joke about Palin, homosexual activist against Mike, and fund raising difficulties are very big obstacles. Can they be overcome? Does he feel he really needs to try? I don't know. I think a lot depends on whether or not their is another strong conservative with a strong background on the moral values issues (so important to Mike) that jumps in. IMO he may have been hoping for Daniels until Daniels put moral issues on the back burner. I don't know Daniels' opinion on traditional marriage though.

Who out there is a very strong voice on all the issues Huck PAC requires for endorsements, good in debates, has executive experience, has good communication skills to compete with Obama's charisma, etc. that is considering running and Huckabee could help raise to the top? If there's no one out there that meets that criteria; IMO Huckabee will run again - if for no other reason than to keep the values issues on the list of priorities.

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