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 Post subject: New PPP TX and PA Polls
PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 3:44 pm 
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Romney is the BIG loser in both these polls, slipping to fourth place in PA (16% from 31% last time) and to third place in TX (18% from 32% last time, with Palin slightly below him at 17%)

The difference is Gingrich who looks to be stealing some of the moderates from Romney -- hard to say.

Good news: Huckabee remains well within the margin of error in both states:

In TX:

Gingrich 25%
Huckabee 22%
Romney 18%
Palin 17%

In PA:

Palin 24%
Gingrich 23%
Huckabee 20%
Romney 16%

Viewed from the lens of electability, neither Gingrich nor Palin has it -- net unfavorabilities in both cases.

In TX, Gingrich and Huckabee packed together; in PA Palin, Gingrich and Huckabee packed togther. In both cases, Huckabee within the 4.38 MOE, Romney nowhere in sight.

In truth, however, neither Palin nor Gingrich, in my opinion, will be around for either of those states, in reality or in perspective.

Huck hangs tight -- in my chart, I continue to cede both TX and PA to him -- and PA, in particular, is a HUGE win.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/ ... TX_625.pdf

P.S. PPP notes Romney's frontrunner status is "fleeting"; in truth, he never had it in the first place. No one does. This race is WIDE OPEN. That is why I believe Romney will be beaten: He and his organization believe(d) this nomination is being handed to him -- it's not. They are not at all prepared to fight. On the other hand, Huckabee is a natural-born fighter -- his entire life demonstrates that.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 4:11 pm 
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Any chance Romney might not run? Who would those voters turn to, if it was only Huckabee and Palin?

Maybe Romney won't run after all? His numbers are really starting to slip and he's not used to being the underdog. I don't think he can play that role.

If it's between Gingrich (and he's certainly tempted to jump in, with those numbers), Palin and Huckabee, who would win? I think a huge disadvantage for Gingrich is that he hasn't held any political office for a long time and so he hasn't campaigned for a while. Campaigns are different today than they were in the mid 90's.

I'm cheering for "our guy" of course, but I'm starting to hope Romney will jump in, just to split the vote (I never thought I'd say that).

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 4:46 pm 
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Romney will definitely run -- unless Obama is headed for a landslide.

Romney against Palin -- Romney in a landslide
Romney against Gingrich - Most likely Romney; Gingrich has poor electability
Romney against Huckabee -- you know what I think :D
Huckabee against either Palin or Gingrich - Huckabee
Palin against Gingrich -- Gingrich -- but most likely Obama wins election

All four of them together -- Neither Palin nor Gingrich are electable. Voters won't throw away the White House on a potential nominee who does worse against Obama than did McCain. Even if we have a full force depression -- or double dip leading toward a depression -- Gingrich and Palin would still be at the bottom of the heap -- lending Obama better chances than either Romney or Huckabee.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 5:25 pm 
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It is increasingly clear to me that Huckabee has established the strongest base/floor underneath a potential run. Even when you see a candidate surge or make a run for the post position, Huckabee's numbers tend to remain stable and any momentary bump in a Palin, Gingrich, Romney, Daniels, etc comes from movement within the remaining bloc of voters.

The "Huck Base" appears to be about 20% and has grown most outside the South (though his base in the South is still his largest group). He continues to be the big winner of the 2008 cycle and has benefited most by his choice of strategy following the election. The "Reagan Plan" has worked for him extremely well and his connection to FOX was a masterstroke (and one that the others could not succed at as they lack the skills to carry it off). Gingrich's plan (which is very similar) has gotten him in the game but I'm still very skeptical that he can overcome the "personality gap/likeability gap" between himself and a Huck/Thune/Jeb rival.

This poll does show two things:

the fluidity of Republican sentiment;

and the fact that the largest and most constant well of support is Huckabee's.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 5:43 pm 
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great news for Huck, as long as we can continue to let the media and the left believe Romney is the front runner we are in good shape. It is a good feeling to hear people talk about Hucks credibility because it means they are starting to realize how strong of a campaigner he is. They are also not ignoring the polls against Obama any longer. I am just worried Huck will become the front runner and the other potential runners will campaign against him before the primary.

Go Huck!


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 5:51 pm 
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From the PPP Blog
Quote:
-Mitt Romney is really slipping in these polls. He had the lead in both Pennsylvania and Texas the last time we polled those states but has fallen now to 4th in both. It's a sign of how fleeting 'frontrunner' status can be this early in the game- it's really not worth much because voters aren't tuned in enough for it to be particularly meaningful or sustainable.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/06/little-support-for-perry-pres-bid.html

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 6:03 pm 
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Quote:
From the PPP Blog

Quote:
-Mitt Romney is really slipping in these polls. He had the lead in both Pennsylvania and Texas the last time we polled those states but has fallen now to 4th in both. It's a sign of how fleeting 'frontrunner' status can be this early in the game- it's really not worth much because voters aren't tuned in enough for it to be particularly meaningful or sustainable.


You will recall, however, that in SC, PPP stated that Huckabee did "surprisingly weak" and was exhibiting the same signs of weakness as in 2008. Not a word about voters "not tuned in" or "not meaningful" or "unsustainable poll results." It was as if the SC primary had already occurred.

You gotta love it!

P.S. Southern Doc, once again you have nailed it.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 6:16 pm 
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I think it is assumed that Huckabee must have strong poll numbers from the very moment he enters the campaign; he needs a lot of people to like him from the very start, because he won't have enough money to buy their love (like Romney). Romney can more easily come in later.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 8:29 pm 
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Voter,

I wish I had the confidence you seem to have about Gingrich and Palin. Most voters have not seen the PPP polls which are showing the high unfavorables for these two people. Therefore, they could easily vote for them believing that they could win against Obama. Most people will not know Mike Huckabee has fared best against Obama. It certainly will NOT be Fox News telling anybody that fact.

Given that people don't remember Gingrich's background (affairs, etc) or remember Palin's small amount of experience (based on all MSM and networks building her up as the Republican leader), I believe they could do well in polls, especially in the northeast and western regions of the country. I wish Mike Huckabee would make a big swing out into the West and actually visit states so those people would get to know him better. He always does better when he actually campaigns and they can see him. If he waits until the primary season begins, he will have to spend all his time in SC, FL, IA, and have no time for places like WI, MI, PA, NJ, NY (most importantly).

What do you think?


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 8:39 pm 
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VFT, I think that's totally right. Can't let Romney have the west AND the northeast. That will make the math quite hard. Most of all, can't let him have them without a fight. If he knows he's going to win the midwest, he can focus on the southern states and force Huckabee to play defense.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 8:52 pm 
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Wendero wrote:
VFT, I think that's totally right. Can't let Romney have the west AND the northeast. That will make the math quite hard. Most of all, can't let him have them without a fight. If he knows he's going to win the midwest, he can focus on the southern states and force Huckabee to play defense.

Romney won't win the midwest. The only state out here he will win is Michigan.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 9:25 pm 
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I'm not surrendering Michigan. With the proposed RNC changes - we can get some delegates there.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 9:36 pm 
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Voter,

I wish I had the confidence you seem to have about Gingrich and Palin. Most voters have not seen the PPP polls which are showing the high unfavorables for these two people. Therefore, they could easily vote for them believing that they could win against Obama. Most people will not know Mike Huckabee has fared best against Obama. It certainly will NOT be Fox News telling anybody that fact.

Given that people don't remember Gingrich's background (affairs, etc) or remember Palin's small amount of experience (based on all MSM and networks building her up as the Republican leader), I believe they could do well in polls, especially in the northeast and western regions of the country. I wish Mike Huckabee would make a big swing out into the West and actually visit states so those people would get to know him better. He always does better when he actually campaigns and they can see him. If he waits until the primary season begins, he will have to spend all his time in SC, FL, IA, and have no time for places like WI, MI, PA, NJ, NY (most importantly).

What do you think?


You are right -- most people now are now viewing PPP polls and couldn't care less about 2012 (unfortunately, a significant amount of people still don't care enough about 2010).

But once the 2012 campaigning begins, the debates and certainly the primaries, more folks will be zoned in -- and there will be plenty -- plenty -- of polls showing favorabilities/net unfavorabilities. That is how voters determine "electability" -- namely, who would do the best against Obama in a general election.

Think back to 2008. In the beginning, McCain was doing the best against either Hilary or Obama. And at that point, he was also faring the best in the early polls. Then all the chatter began, all the pundit nonsense, all the discussions about the inevitable candidate and the doomed McCain campaign.

What happened next? The debates and ultimately the primaries. Huckabee took IA -- and then came NH. At that point, in all national polls, Huckabee and Romney were each 9 to 10 points behind their democrat rivals, but McCain once again was faring the best.

Despite right-wing talk show radio, despite FOX, despite the punditry insiders, despite the all-knowing establishment, when voters tuned in, those who wanted a republican president in 2008 looked toward the candidate that did the best -- the most electable. That is always the way.

In 2012, Huck will take IA -- no doubt in my mind -- and because the chattering class is so blind, it will actually be perceived as a minor upset. Romney will take NH. You will be going into SC with ZERO wins for either Palin or Gingrich, and plenty of polls showing the polarizing, net unfavorables. Momentum is against Palin/Gingrich and toward Huckabee/Romney. Remember, in 2008, when Huck was a clear unknown and being defined by his enemies (and that will never happen in 2012), with absolutely no money, no ground game, and 9 to 10 points behind the democrat rivals (and please do not forget about Fred Thompson, the "pure southern conservative") -- Huckabee lost to McCain by only three points. That was incredible. That was pure Huck magical campaigning (not to mention that he is a southerner, which opens plenty of southern doors). Can you not imagine his potential in 2012?

On the other hand, if Huck had lost IA, McCain would have run away with SC. It is all about momentum and electability.

The primaries will be a free-fall. Palin's abrupt termination, Romney's MassCare, Huck's clemencies, Gingrich's historical baggage -- they are all coming out in the wash. By and large, Huck will take the south (including the southwest and the southeast) and the vast majority of the midwest -- not to mention, I believe, PA. Romney will take the west by and large, and New England (most likely NY and NJ but I haven't conceded yet). And is there anyone who doesn't believe that Huckabee is already campaigning in FL? He is making the Gulf tragedy his special endeavor.

In the end, I think it all comes down to OH, FL, VA and PA. And right now, Huckabee has an better than average shot in at least three of them.

In my opinion -- and it has ALWAYS been my opinion -- the only threat to Huckabee in the primaries is Romney. That is because, at least at this point, he is perceived to be "electable" also -- only a point or two behind Huckabee. And he has the money, the organization and, as Huckabee stated, an inside track to the establishment. But, on the other hand, the "other electable candidate" has a huge likeability factor and fantastic campaigning and debating skills. It will be a fight -- no guarantees -- but I put my money on Huckabee. (As for Gingrich or Palin, they are a non-factor whether in or out. This will always be a two-man race, should both Huckabee and Romney declare.)

Of course, there are no certainties in life -- we do not even know for certain if Huckabee is jumping in -- but I think, if he does, he has a very good chance for the nomination; and, if he grabs the nomination, I believe Obama is going down.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 9:37 pm 
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Vote For Truth wrote:
Voter,

I wish I had the confidence you seem to have about Gingrich and Palin. Most voters have not seen the PPP polls which are showing the high unfavorables for these two people. Therefore, they could easily vote for them believing that they could win against Obama. Most people will not know Mike Huckabee has fared best against Obama. It certainly will NOT be Fox News telling anybody that fact.

Given that people don't remember Gingrich's background (affairs, etc) or remember Palin's small amount of experience (based on all MSM and networks building her up as the Republican leader), I believe they could do well in polls, especially in the northeast and western regions of the country. I wish Mike Huckabee would make a big swing out into the West and actually visit states so those people would get to know him better. He always does better when he actually campaigns and they can see him. If he waits until the primary season begins, he will have to spend all his time in SC, FL, IA, and have no time for places like WI, MI, PA, NJ, NY (most importantly).

What do you think?


Huckabee has supporters that are good at youtube videos. Also, Huckabee is good at finding people to do good 30 second soundbites. The fact that he polls best against Obama could easily be put in an ad.

Check out some of these videos by Huckabee supporters:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1_SsxzYOG0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skjqeVJwqWY&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sdZY3oSupU

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 9:43 pm 
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I'm not surrendering Michigan. With the proposed RNC changes - we can get some delegates there.


I am sure you will. Huckabee got delegates in 2008 in Michigan:

Romney -20; McCain 7; Huckabee 3


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:08 am 
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As soon as Governor Huckabee opens his mouth to speak during the dabates his numbers will soar!!! Remember how well he did last time out?? No one can touch him in that arena....My dream has been to see a debate between Huck and Obama and I'm still believing that is gonna happen.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:24 am 
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Amen! I was just watching GrannyT's links to the youtube clips & the one that has the highlights from the debates just had me thinking pretty much the same exact thing! Empty rhetoric meets rich substance!


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 8:49 am 
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nrobyar wrote:
As soon as Governor Huckabee opens his mouth to speak during the dabates his numbers will soar!!! Remember how well he did last time out?? No one can touch him in that arena....My dream has been to see a debate between Huck and Obama and I'm still believing that is gonna happen.


Amen to that!


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 7:26 pm 
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It seems to me that more of the talk radio crowd that went for Romeny in 2008 are either being quiet about him or are actually turning on him. Michael Savage was all for him not to long ago but is now being very negative about him. The more you know about Romney, the more you don't like him. Just the opposite with Huck. :)

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 8:57 pm 
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I think Mike Huckabee learned a lot during the 2008 primaries. He was very surprised at how the press knows everything he says. So I hope he will be very diplomatic and knowledgeable about foreign policy and the economy. When Romney spoke about the economy during the 2008 debates, he did sound very knowledgeable. So to beat him at the economic issues, Mike Huckabee should be boning up on all the issues. Last time he pretty much just stuck to the Fair Tax as the answer. I don't think that will be near enough of an answer for our economynow.

I would think that Huckabee needs to be making visits to NH, SC and of course FL a lot right now so they will see what a great candidate he would be.

Newt is from the South, so he could play a role against Huckabee in the South. Of course if they are reminded of his infedelity problems, maybe they wouldn't consider him. Of course, that we need the executive experience of a Governor rather than a legislator could help Mike Huckabee too.


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