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National 2012 presidential polls
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Author:  donnalynne [ Wed Feb 08, 2012 4:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: National 2012 presidential polls

I like Santorum or maybe Newt, but Romney and Paul almost always fare much better in polls against Obama. I'm encouraged that RS is starting to poll closer to Paul's numbers against Obama but Newts poll numbers against Obama are still dismal.
I'm not too concerned that RP will run 3rd party, but the "no one but paul"
thing is really catching on with his supporters and his numbers are now clearly big enough to really hurt the Republican nominee even without a RP 3rd party run.
Ron could even endorse the nominee, but even that would not necessarily get them on board. I believe guys like Mark Levin who spew rabid hatred toward him would be better to just let him state his positions, as that would probably be more effective at ensuring him the least number of votes. What folks like Levin do is guarantee the success of the no one but Paul meme.
Paul's position on drugs and marriage loses me though I believe the war on drugs needs to be waged with a little more intelligence than it now is.
As far as who I trust, Santorum and Paul are clear winners for me, so I guess that puts me for Rick's camp, at least for now.
Though I think if I were in Virginia, I would go for Paul in hope of denying Romney the delegates and momentum that the landslide sure to happen there will cause.
Those delegates won in Virginia could be just enough to lock in the win for Romney against RS or Newt later in the process.

Author:  donnalynne [ Wed Feb 08, 2012 5:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: National 2012 presidential polls

And I was reading how Newt and Santorum already will be denied delegates due to ballot issues in several states already and anyone supporting either should vote to deny delegates to Romney in any of those situations as Paul does not appear to being able to mount any credible threat with the few delegates he could get in the process.

Author:  QuoVadisAnima [ Wed Feb 08, 2012 6:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: National 2012 presidential polls

I totally agree - if I were in a state that is not even going to have all candidates available on the ballot, I would absolutely vote for the candidate on the ballot who is best positioned to block Romney.

As it is, TX may not even have a primary...

Author:  donnalynne [ Thu Feb 09, 2012 12:35 am ]
Post subject:  Re: National 2012 presidential polls

I just saw this on Drudge.
SHOCK POLL: 20% of Republicans leaning to Obama?
Depressing.

http://drudgereport.com/

Link to the article:
http://www.wnd.com/2012/02/20-of-republ ... -to-obama/

Obama would defeat all of the four Republicans if the election were held today, but Ron Paul fares the best against the incumbent. Obama leads Paul, 44 percent to 40 percent, with 16 percent undecided.

“This is likely a reflection of discontent over Obama’s handling of the economy and, in particular, his outsized appetite for deficit spending,” observed Wenzel. “Paul has far and away offered the clearest and most serious plan to cut federal spending, and it appears to be recognized by these survey respondents.”

Romney also is within single digits of Obama, currently trailing, 48 percent to 41 percent. Obama leads both Gingrich and Rick Santorum Santorum by double-digits. Obama leads Gingrich, 50 percent to 36 percent, and Santorum, 49 percent to 34 percent.

Author:  Miserere [ Thu Feb 09, 2012 12:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: National 2012 presidential polls

donnalynne wrote:
I just saw this on Drudge.
SHOCK POLL: 20% of Republicans leaning to Obama?
Depressing.

http://drudgereport.com/

Link to the article:
http://www.wnd.com/2012/02/20-of-republ ... -to-obama/

Obama would defeat all of the four Republicans if the election were held today, but Ron Paul fares the best against the incumbent. Obama leads Paul, 44 percent to 40 percent, with 16 percent undecided.

“This is likely a reflection of discontent over Obama’s handling of the economy and, in particular, his outsized appetite for deficit spending,” observed Wenzel. “Paul has far and away offered the clearest and most serious plan to cut federal spending, and it appears to be recognized by these survey respondents.”

Romney also is within single digits of Obama, currently trailing, 48 percent to 41 percent. Obama leads both Gingrich and Rick Santorum Santorum by double-digits. Obama leads Gingrich, 50 percent to 36 percent, and Santorum, 49 percent to 34 percent.


That poll is pure rubbish. It flatly contradicts the more reliable pollsters.

Here's a quote from that pollster, "Obama also has made tremendous inroads on enemy territory against each of the four Republicans, winning roughly 20 percent support among conservatives and even those who consider themselves to be very conservative."

:lol: Y'all tell me the very conservative people you know who're going to go vote Obama.

Author:  FirstCoastTerp [ Thu Feb 09, 2012 2:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: National 2012 presidential polls

Latest Gallup national poll has Santorum up 4% from the previous poll (Romney and Paul down 1, Gingrich down 2):

Romney 36
Gingrich 20
Santorum 20
Paul 10
http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx

Author:  Southern Doc [ Thu Feb 09, 2012 5:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: National 2012 presidential polls

FirstCoastTerp wrote:
Latest Gallup national poll has Santorum up 4% from the previous poll (Romney and Paul down 1, Gingrich down 2):

Romney 36
Gingrich 20
Santorum 20
Paul 10
http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx


Not to quibble but the move as I see it was from 17 to 20 (3 points). That is still a huge number and represents a major SURGE/Bump in his polling the night after the Tuesday wins.

Given that Gallup uses a five day rolling average and Santorum's numbers were very stable during the previous week, his "one night" polling last night would have needed to range between 28 and 35 percent.

It remains to be seen if he can keep that bump or build on it. He will almost certainly become at least the clear 2nd place contender in the national poll within three or four days.

Author:  Iowans Rock [ Thu Feb 09, 2012 5:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: National 2012 presidential polls

I don't know if this was posted somewhere or not but the latest Rasmussen poll in head to head with Obama had Santorum as the only prez candidate leading him.

The surge in the national polling will also help Santorum's already escalating fundraising. I think online he has now raised 2 million since the triple win. His crowds have also been enormous so this bump will add to all of that.

Author:  EricB [ Thu Feb 09, 2012 6:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: National 2012 presidential polls

Southern Doc wrote:
FirstCoastTerp wrote:
Latest Gallup national poll has Santorum up 4% from the previous poll (Romney and Paul down 1, Gingrich down 2):

Romney 36
Gingrich 20
Santorum 20
Paul 10
http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx


Not to quibble but the move as I see it was from 17 to 20 (3 points). That is still a huge number and represents a major SURGE/Bump in his polling the night after the Tuesday wins.

Given that Gallup uses a five day rolling average and Santorum's numbers were very stable during the previous week, his "one night" polling last night would have needed to range between 28 and 35 percent.

It remains to be seen if he can keep that bump or build on it. He will almost certainly become at least the clear 2nd place contender in the national poll within three or four days.


Totally agree with you that Santorum must have had a big bump to gain 3 points in one day since they use a 5-day rolling average. If the 4 days previous to the Tuesday win average 17% (which is unknown, but a decent guess), then Santorum must have got around 4 times 3 points above 20% to make the 5-day average be 20%. That's around 32%. That would put Santorum and Romney in a dead heat.

Further, given the trajectory of the Gingrich campaign, the significant support he still has, and that almost all of Gingrich's supporters prefer Santorum over Romney, that means that Santorum still has a lot of room to grow. Winning Michigan and then sweeping most of the states on Super Tuesday isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Author:  cschande [ Thu Feb 09, 2012 11:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: National 2012 presidential polls

Wowzers!

PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls wrote:
We put a national poll in the field today and pretty clear your new leader is Rick Santorum.

Author:  Miserere [ Fri Feb 10, 2012 1:06 am ]
Post subject:  Re: National 2012 presidential polls

cschande wrote:
Wowzers!

PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls wrote:
We put a national poll in the field today and pretty clear your new leader is Rick Santorum.


Most volatile race of all time?

Author:  QuoVadisAnima [ Fri Feb 10, 2012 2:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: National 2012 presidential polls

Miserere wrote:
cschande wrote:
Wowzers!

PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls wrote:
We put a national poll in the field today and pretty clear your new leader is Rick Santorum.


Most volatile race of all time?

Biggest understatement of all time? :lol: Okay, well, today at least!

Author:  FirstCoastTerp [ Fri Feb 10, 2012 12:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: National 2012 presidential polls

Fox News poll:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/02 ... ate-sweep/

for the past two days the numbers are:

Romney 30
Santorum 30
Gingrich 16
Paul 15

Author:  EricB [ Fri Feb 10, 2012 12:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: National 2012 presidential polls

The numbers from before the Tuesday results (Monday & Tuesday) were:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/02 ... rge-obama/

Romney: 35%
Gingrich: 26%
Santorum: 17%
Paul: 14%
Other/Undecided: 8%

The numbers from Wednesday & Thursday were:
Romney: 30% (-5)
Santorum: 30% (+13)
Gingrich: 16% (-10)
Paul: 15% (+1)
Other/Undecided: 9% (+1)

Author:  FirstCoastTerp [ Fri Feb 10, 2012 2:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: National 2012 presidential polls

New Gallup poll results:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx

Romney 34
Santorum 22
Gingrich 18
Paul 10

Author:  brownkb [ Sat Feb 11, 2012 9:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: National 2012 presidential polls

A teaser tweet from PPP last night:

Quote:
We're going to have our new national GOP poll, showing a pretty healthy Santorum lead, out tomorrow morning


Can't wait to see the numbers! :eatingpopcorn

Author:  NWmichigan [ Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: National 2012 presidential polls

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/santorum-surges-into-the-lead.html
Quote:
Riding a wave of momentum from his trio of victories on Tuesday Rick Santorum has opened up a wide lead in PPP's newest national poll. He's at 38% to 23% for Mitt Romney, 17% for Newt Gingrich, and 13% for Ron Paul.

Author:  EricB [ Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: National 2012 presidential polls

Here's that PPP poll.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main ... -lead.html


PPP National Poll


Santorum: 38%
Romney: 23%
Gingrich: 17%
Paul: 13%

Quote:
Riding a wave of momentum from his trio of victories on Tuesday Rick Santorum has opened up a wide lead in PPP's newest national poll. He's at 38% to 23% for Mitt Romney, 17% for Newt Gingrich, and 13% for Ron Paul.

Part of the reason for Santorum's surge is his own high level of popularity. 64% of voters see him favorably to only 22% with a negative one. But the other, and maybe more important, reason is that Republicans are significantly souring on both Romney and Gingrich. Romney's favorability is barely above water at 44/43, representing a 23 point net decline from our December national poll when he was +24 (55/31). Gingrich has fallen even further. A 44% plurality of GOP voters now hold a negative opinion of him to only 42% with a positive one. That's a 34 point drop from 2 months ago when he was at +32 (60/28).

Santorum is now completely dominating with several key segments of the electorate, especially the most right leaning parts of the party. With those describing themselves as 'very conservative,' he's now winning a majority of voters at 53% to 20% for Gingrich and 15% for Romney. Santorum gets a majority with Tea Party voters as well at 51% to 24% for Gingrich and 12% for Romney. And with Evangelicals he falls just short of a majority with 45% to 21% for Gingrich and 18% for Romney.

It used to be that Gingrich was leading with all these groups and Romney was staying competitive enough with them to hold the overall lead. No more- a consensus conservative candidate finally seems to be emerging and it's Santorum.
The best thing Romney might have going for him right now is Gingrich's continued presence in the race. If Gingrich dropped out 58% of his supporters say they would move to Santorum, while 22% would go to Romney and 17% to Paul. Santorum gets to 50% in the Newt free field to 28% for Romney and 15% for Paul.

Of course if there's been one constant theme in this GOP race it's that once you get to the top you tend to start heading back down. Only 48% of voters say they're solidly committed to their current candidate choice, while 52% say they're open to changing their minds. Santorum's support isn't that solid and when Romney uses his superior resources to pulverize him, we could see this lead evaporate just as quickly as it was built up. But for now there's been a stunning reversal in the race and Santorum's your new leader.


Author:  EricB [ Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:06 am ]
Post subject:  Re: National 2012 presidential polls

Sorry for the re-post. We were typing at the same time I guess.

Author:  FirstCoastTerp [ Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: National 2012 presidential polls

wow, that's a huge swing

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