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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 2:08 pm 
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/GOP2012FLNV.pdf

So, Huckabee got two fourth-place finishes this time. I sure had hoped that he would do better in Florida, but maybe Marco Rubio can help him there when the election draws closer. He's got 15 % in Florida and 11 % in Nevada.

Romney leads both, with Gingrich second in Nevada and tied second with Palin in Florida (who finished third in Nevada). Ron Paul further back at fifth place.

In Nevada:
34 % Romney
28 % Gingrich
16 % Palin
11 % Huckabee
7 % Ron Paul

In Florida:
31 % Romney
23 % Gingrich
23 % Palin
15 % Huckabee
6 % Ron Paul

/John


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 2:30 pm 
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Let's focus on FL -- NV is not going to Huckabee no matter how many Las Vegas shows he does.

There are three polls to review: (i) the current PPP poll (including Gingrich); (ii) the March PPP poll (excluding Gingrich) and (iii) the March Magellan poll (including Gingrich)

March PPP Poll (excluding Gingrich)

Romney 52%
Gingrich N/A
Palin 18%
Huckabee 21%

Compare to the current PPP Poll (including Gingrich)

Romney 31% (-22)
Gingrich 23% (+23)
Palin 23% (+5)
Huckabee 21% (-6)

So, in this poll, looks like Gingrich basically took his 23% from Romney and Palin basically took her 5% from Huckabee. Thus, Gingrich is affecting Romney more than anyone else; Palin and Huckabee's points are fluid and are inconclusive

Compare Current PPP Poll to March Magellan (including Gingrich)

Romney 29% (+2)
Gingrich 13% (+10)
Palin 20% (+3)
Huckabee 15% -0-

Again, the big gamechanger in Magellan's March poll and current PPP poll (both including Gingrich) is Gingrich +10 points. The 10% climb for Gingrich (from PPP compared to Magellan) didn't really come from any of the four -- you can find the difference in Magellan's poll from factors not included in PPP's poll: 5% (someone else); 3% (Pawlenty -- not included in PPP's poll); undecideds (5% in PPP vs. 10% in Magellan)

So, thus far, nothing is really changing in FL and that should not be unexpected. Romney has left in place a fantastic ground game from 2008; Huckabee will gain from his new residency (how much is undetermined at this point) but it has yet been realized and, of course, once campaigning and debates begin; Palin remains within the ballpark and Gingrich is the unknown factor.

Much too early in the game for predictions -- the definite edge goes to Romney.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 2:54 pm 
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I think you got some numbers wrong, but the point remains (Huckabee had only 15 % in the PPP poll).

Nevada just might go to Huckabee if Sharron Angle gets elected and then endorse Palin, who will then rise in the polls in Nevada. When Palin lose Iowa, her supporters will start to leave her ship and join Huckabee instead, giving him a surprise victory in Nevada... :)

Okay, I guess I'm dreaming. But it sure would be cool :)

/John


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 4:09 pm 
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Huckabee continues to "hold" his vote as the others largely rotate up and down.

That's fine.

A little perspective from last time around:

The first public poll for the Florida GOP primary was Jan 4-7, 2007 (more than a year out) with these results:

Jan 4-7, 2007 Rudy Giuliani 30%, Newt Gingrich 16%, John McCain 15%, Chuck Hagel 2%, Mitt Romney 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, George Pataki 1%, Undecided 32%

From June, 2007 through December, 2007 the eventual winner John McCain never polled above 14%.

One month before Iowa here's how it looked in Florida:

Nov 26-Dec 3, 2007 Rudy Giuliani 30%, Mitt Romney 12%, Mike Huckabee 11%, Fred Thompson 10%, John McCain 9%, Paul 4%, Hunter 1%, Tancredo 1%, Other 2%, Undecided 17% (Notice the winner six weeks later was in fifth place with less than 10% of the vote)
Little more than a month later these were the final election results (and the comparison to the poll a year out and just one month before the Iowa primary):

John McCain 701,761 36% (+21) (+17)
Mitt Romney 604,932 31.03% (+29) (+19)
Rudy Giuliani 286,089 14.68% (-15) (-15)
Mike Huckabee 262,681 13.47% (+12) (+2)
Ron Paul 62,887 3.23% (+3) (-1)
Fred Thompson* 22,668 1.16% (+1) (-9)
Alan Keyes 4,060 0.21%
Duncan Hunter* 2,847 0.15% (-1)
Tom Tancredo* 1,573 0.08% (-1)
Newt Gingrich (-16)
Chuck Hagel (-2)

Giulianni proved a paper tiger.

Huckabee came from nowhere to a player but couldn't find a second wind and peaked as a second tier candidate in the state.

Romney built the best campaign levy system money could buy to stop any SC surge.

And McCain, who had never seemed the threat, floated right over it.

Who would have seen any of this a year out or even two months before?


Patience. All is well.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 6:28 pm 
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It still absoluetly amazes me that a guy like Romney who did Obamacare before Obamacare was cool (sarcasm intended) can be leading in any GOP primary poll. Do I really belong to a party that is this stupid? :x :?

Hopefully, as Sothern Doc pointed out, it's just the Guiliani syndrom all over again, but it's still utterly baffling that Romney hasn't been disqualified by all conservatives (RINO's like him of course) for any potential run for POTUS.

I've noticed a new tactic by Romney supporters when they call into talk shows now. They declare that they could never vote for Gingrich, Palin or Huckabee but they could vote for Romney and then list other candidates who have made no intention of running for POTUS (Perry, Jindal, etc.) as other people they could vote for. This way it makes them seem open minded about who they would vote for (i.e. not Rombots) all the while knowing that Romney is the only one of the people they mentioned who actually is running for POTUS. Very tricky, but very transparent to longtime political observers. 8)

I also noticed while rumaging around in the politics section at my local Borders bookstore that Romney's last book is priced at a 50% discount...........guess Hugh Hewitt and his fellow travelers could only buy up so many of them. :lol:

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 27, 2010 4:29 am 
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The weighting on these 2 polls is off as they have the 18-29 vote at 4% & 3% respectively...and the older voter majorly over-weighted compared to 2008 GOP primary turnout in those two states. For example 18-29 was 7% of FL GOP and 11% of NV GOP in 2008.


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 27, 2010 7:00 am 
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PrinciplesMatter wrote:
The weighting on these 2 polls is off as they have the 18-29 vote at 4% & 3% respectively...and the older voter majorly over-weighted compared to 2008 GOP primary turnout in those two states. For example 18-29 was 7% of FL GOP and 11% of NV GOP in 2008.


Good catch, David!


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 27, 2010 7:52 am 
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Steadfast wrote:
PrinciplesMatter wrote:
The weighting on these 2 polls is off as they have the 18-29 vote at 4% & 3% respectively...and the older voter majorly over-weighted compared to 2008 GOP primary turnout in those two states. For example 18-29 was 7% of FL GOP and 11% of NV GOP in 2008.


Good catch, David!

Yes - great find, David...

And, looking at the results, Huckabee's best demo was the 18-29 yo in both surveys. In FL he tied at the top of the demo with Palin at 30%. In NV, it was 17% - not great, but still his best demo there.

We have to remember, too, that most 18-29 year olds (and an increasing percentage in all the other age brackets, too) are carrying cell phones, and won't be included in these surveys at all.

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 27, 2010 10:32 am 
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Also you have to remember the type of person who would take the time to respond to surveys for a presidential contest two years out. The average, middle-class, non-political but ultimate voter most likely won't. Thus, many respondees at this point in time, to some degree, are political people tuned into FOX and other cable news and radio talk shows, and activists.

Now, that is one reason that Mike is holding his own in general, because of his presence on FOX and his talk show.

However, there is a large, general audience that is not being tapped (either they don't answer phones or they refuse to be surveyed) and this is, by and large, the group that has yet to make up their minds.

That is why polls this far out -- and in particular, state polls -- are fairly meaningless. However, they give us a vague, on-the-spot view of who are the top tier candidates (Huckabee is clearly one of them).


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