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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 2:49 pm 
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/ ... NH_728.pdf

Embedded in its 2010 NH poll, PPP included a 2012 NH Presidential primary question. We have lots of NH polls to compare (so far NH is the most polled 2012 state)

Note: In 2008, Romney got 32.17%, Huckabee got 11.44% and Ron Paul got 7.8%

Latest PPP Poll (July 2010)

Romney..............................31%
Gingrich.............................14%
Huckabee...........................12%
Palin...................................9%
Ron Paul............................13%

Note: In the current PPP poll, both Romney and Huckabee are close to where they were in 2008, but Paul is at 13% -- nearly double the 7.8% he actually received in 2008 - for what it is worth.

May PPP Poll (excluding Paul, Including Gingrich)

Romney............................39%
Gingrich...........................11%
Huckabee.........................11%
Palin................................13%

May Magellan Poll

Romney...........................40%
Gingrich..........................16%
Huckabee.......................10%
Palin..............................11%


WMUR Granite State Poll -- also in May (compare Gingrich in Magellan)

Romney........................41%
Gingrich.........................5%
Huckabee.......................9%
Palin............................12%


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:09 pm 
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More evidence that Gingrich is taking Romney's support - I think it's a safe bet that most of the support for both of them is pretty "soft"...


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:48 pm 
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Frum has a new article out on the results of the New Hampshire poll. You can read the article at the link, but this is what he had to say about Huckabee:

Quote:
5) Notice how poorly Mike Huckabee is doing in NH. If Sarah Palin can beat him in Iowa, Huckabee’s road to the nomination suddenly looks very rocky.

http://www.frumforum.com/ron-pauls-libe ... lican-base

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 4:01 pm 
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More evidence that Gingrich is taking Romney's support - I think it's a safe bet that most of the support for both of them is pretty "soft"...


In this particular poll, I think you can also attribute some of Romney's support possibly to Ron Paul, who was not included in earlier polls and who, according to this poll, is doubling his actual vote from 2008.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 4:09 pm 
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Notice how poorly Mike Huckabee is doing in NH. If Sarah Palin can beat him in Iowa, Huckabee’s road to the nomination suddenly looks very rocky.


Another sterling example of analytical thinking.

If we are going to notice how poorly Huckabee is doing at 12% - Palin is doing worse at 9%. Huckabee is also the 2008 IA caucus winner, by 9 points. Huckabee has also won every IA poll thus far, outside the MOE (Palin has come in third, after Romney). We won't even discuss Brandstadt, evangelical support and strong Huckabee IA ties. But applying Frum's analysis, if Huckabee can beat Palin in IA -- (an extremely likely event), then Palin's road to the nomination suddenly looks very rocky. So does Gingrich's road, for that matter. That's been my argument all along -- with four of them in the campaign, it comes down to Romney and Huckabee.

You see what I mean about momentum and expectations? Romney is being given NH (to which I agree) but Huckabee's IA win is always being suggested for someone else. That is why Romney NH's win will be anti-climatic, but Huckabee's IA win will commence Huckaboom II.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 4:26 pm 
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Frum is so spinning out of control, he makes me dizzy, maybe borderline nauseous.
His fear is palpable. What has his spin machine on the verge of throwing a rod?
I can understand his fear of Mike, but RP??? He used to be content just totally ignoring RP. This time he feels the need to go out of his way, kinda like the big grasshopper ignoring the little ant until he realizes he better eliminate it just to be sure. If he even decides to campaign, Ron only runs an educational campaign. Unfortunately, even his small percentage of votes may skew things the wrong way, so I hope he just stays in Congress and continues to educate through Campaign for Liberty. By now, the education campaign of 2008 onward has taken place, even my mother in law now is economically literate on the FED and the central banks, and how they tie in with Cap and Trade and the so-called healthcare overhaul, so, though I differ with most here on some things, I am betting the farm on Mike running as I could never pull the lever for any of others and a RP educational event disguised as a campaign pulling even as little as 10 percent will be bad unless it is pulled more from the other primary candidates and not from Mike.
RP running 3rd party would be a real disaster and he didn't consider it last time and I doubt it will come up this time, except by interviewers wanting to generate a lot of unproductive political buzz.
Ron really needs to be where he is now and Mike needs to be in the white house.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 4:43 pm 
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Quote:
5) Notice how poorly Mike Huckabee is doing in NH. If Sarah Palin can beat him in Iowa, Huckabee’s road to the nomination suddenly looks very rocky.


I always thought Mike winning Iowa as a given.
Frum's statement seems irrelevant. Kinda like saying "if Kia makes a better car than Mercedes, things will get rocky for the German Auto manufacturer".

BTW,
I never could figure back in 2008 Paul did better in Iowa than NH.
I did find that Mike and Ron did a lot better in NH in districts without electronic voting machines... Alas, the agenda analyst in me rears its conspiratorial head.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 4:49 pm 
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Quote:
Frum's statement seems irrelevant. Kinda like saying "if Kia makes a better car than Mercedes, things will get rocky for the German Auto manufacturer".
:lol: :like


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 5:05 pm 
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NH is definitely Mitt's to lose. He wins in polling well outside the MOE.

Mitt dropped 8 points since April.
Sarah dropped 4 points since April.
Pawlenty stayed the same.
Huckabee gained 1 point since April.
Newt gained 3 points since April.
Paul gained 6 points (almost doubled) since April.

Comparing the results of this poll to actual results from 2008:
Mitt dropped 1 point
Huckabee gained 1 point
Paul gained 5 points

Newt's gain could be due to him saying he's more serious than ever about considering running.

Interesting that Paul was the biggest gainer and Romney was the biggest loser - although Romney still wasn't hurt much because of his huge lead:

1. Paul gained 1 point among men, gained 10 points among women, gained 1 point among conservatives, and gained 7 points among moderates.

2. Gingrich gained 5 points among men, stayed the same among women, gained 1 among conservatives, and gained 4 among moderates.

3. Huckabee stayed the same among both men and women from the April poll, decreased by 2 points among conservatives, and increased by 3 points among moderates.

4. Palin lost 6 points among men, lost 1 point among women, lost 2 points among conservatives, and lost 5 points among moderates.

5. Romney lost 4 points among men, lost 12 points among women, lost 4 points among conservatives, and lost 7 points among moderates.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 6:06 pm 
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Quote:
Frum's statement seems irrelevant. Kinda like saying "if Kia makes a better car than Mercedes, things will get rocky for the German Auto manufacturer".


Perfect statement!


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 7:40 pm 
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melopa wrote:
Frum is so spinning out of control, he makes me dizzy, maybe borderline nauseous.
His fear is palpable. What has his spin machine on the verge of throwing a rod?
I can understand his fear of Mike, but RP??


Answer is: Frum is a proto-typical neo-con (or as Paul Gottfried would put it, a never-was-con). Anyone who actually believes in conservative principles, whether they be social or fiscal, causes much consternation among the Frum's of the world. The only reason he gets any attention is that he somehow obtained the label of being a conservative despite his thrashing away at anyone or anything that resembles actual conservatism, and that's just the kind of "conservative" that the MSM loves them some of.

Frum should be ignored into oblivion.

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