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 Post subject: PPP 2012:
PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2010 11:37 am 
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Obama vs Huckabee 47-44
Obama vs Romney 45-42
Obama vs Palin 49-43
Obama vs Gingrich 49-42
Obama vs Christie 47-31

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com ... -2012.html


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 Post subject: Re: PPP 2012:
PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2010 1:23 pm 
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Seems like overall good numbers, though Huckabees approval rating has dropped (so has the approval ratings of all other republican potential candidates).

No big surprises. Huckabee gets the most votes against Obama of all the Republicans.

I'm not sure about the weighting of the poll though. And Obama having 47/48 favorables? That's not what we've seen in most polls.

/John


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 Post subject: Re: PPP 2012:
PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2010 4:06 pm 
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Was this the right article or did I follow the wrong link? Confused.

Public Policy Polling
Thursday, August 12, 2010
The Monthly 2012

PPP's monthly look ahead to the 2012 Presidential race finds that Ron Paul could play a major role as a third party candidate. He gets 13% in a hypothetical three way contest with Barack Obama getting 42% and Mitt Romney 36%.

Paul would draw his support in such a scenario from conservative leaning voters who are unhappy with the Republican party. 44% who say they would vote for him are Republicans compared to 41% independents and 15% Democrats. 49% are conservatives, 37% are moderates, and 14% are liberals. But only 26% of them think Congressional Republicans are doing a good job to 61% who disapprove

In a direct head to head between Obama and Romney the President leads 45-42 so Paul as a third party candidate could be worth roughly 3 points to Obama's margin of victory.

Poll after poll after poll we conduct about who Republican voters prefer for their party's 2012 nominate finds Paul in single digits. If he really wants to get his issues out there on the national stage a third party bid may be the only way to do it and in a political climate where voters are disgusted with both parties people may be more receptive than they usually would.

Down the line Obama is doing better in this month's 2012 poll, leading every match up after trailing in most of them a month ago. Romney and Mike Huckabee come the closest, both down by three points. It's a 47-44 contest against Huckabee. Obama leads Sarah Palin 49-43, Newt Gingrich 49-42, and Chris Christie 47-31.

Even though Obama has negative approval numbers with independents he leads every potential GOP foe with them.

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 Post subject: Re: PPP 2012:
PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2010 6:47 pm 
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Interesting how much focus they give to how Romney matches up against Obama and only a brief mention of Huck. Some thought has been given that Romney is the GOP candidate who is paying for these polls...............just sayin'. 8)

As an aside, PPP has Bennet beating Buck in the CO. senate race by 3pts while Rasmussen has Buck up by 5pts. In Dem vs. GOP matchups, PPP's numbers are usually off the mark when compared to the better polling firms.

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 Post subject: Re: PPP 2012:
PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2010 6:55 pm 
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Here is the poll that makes me a little concerned:

Quote:
THE FOLLOWING QUESTION WAS ASKED OF RESPONDENTS: “Of the following possible candidates for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, which ONE would you now favor if you had to vote today... (ROTATE NAMES) Lamar Alexander, Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, or John Thune?


Romney beats 2nd place Huckabee by 5 points. Here's the link for the pdf file:
http://www.clarusrg.com/sites/default/files/August%2012.pdf

Or you can see most of the data at Aron's blog on RightOSphere:
http://www.rightosphere.com/blog.php?user=Aron&blogentry_id=4717

I'm not familiar with Clarus that did the polling.

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 Post subject: Re: PPP 2012:
PostPosted: Fri Aug 13, 2010 12:13 am 
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Grannty T:

Nothing to worry about. I posted this information in another thread.

From the article:

Quote:
The only real takeaway is that while Romney remains the strongest clear candidate, it's wide open.


From the poll

Quote:
Here are the results of the three Clarus polls on the 2012 Republican choices:


.......................AUGUST 2009........... MARCH 2010.............. JULY 2010

Mitt Romney
.........................30............................... 29........................ 26

Mike Huckabee
........................... 22.............................. 19....................... 21

Newt Gingrich
........................... 15................................ 13...................... 14

Sarah Palin
........................... 18.................................. 18.....................12

POLL METHODOLOGY: Survey interviews were conducted live via telephone calls based on a sample of 374 U.S. registered voters nationwide who self-identified as Republicans or as Independents who lean Republican on July 26-27, 2010. The margin of error for the sample is +/- 5 percent.


Note that, besides the fact that Palin is falling and Mike is stabilized, Romney is also falling -- to the point that, currently he and Huckabee are five points apart, clearly within the margin of error -- i.e., in a virtual tie.

Tell me again -- exactly how does Romney remain the "strongest clear candidate"?


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