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PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2010 12:11 pm 
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Monday, September 20, 2010
Another tie at the top


This month's look at the 2012 Republican Presidential field shows the same basic four way tie at the top that we see every month- but looking inside the numbers it also shows an unusual potential path to his party's nomination for Mitt Romney.

Romney's in first place with 22% followed by Mike Huckabee at 21%, Newt Gingrich at 18%, Sarah Palin at 17%, and Ron Paul at 6%.

What's fascinating about Romney's lead, as small as it is, is that it comes despite finishing fourth among conservatives. He gets 18% with them, lagging Gingrich at 22% and Huckabee and Palin at 21%. But he wins moderates by such a wide margin- getting 33% with Huckabee at 22% and the rest in single digits- that it propels him to the overall lead. If Romney can run even or just a little bit behind with conservatives but clean up in the middle that may just be enough to let him get the nomination.

As is the case every month Sarah Palin is the most personally popular of the Republicans, with 66% viewing her favorably. She is followed by Huckabee at 60% and Gingrich and Romney at 57%.

The problem for Palin is that a smaller percentage of the people who like her personally support her for President than any of the other Republicans. 37% of the voters who like Romney also say he's their choice for the 2012 nomination and the same is true for 32% who like Gingrich and Huckabee. But just 24% who see Palin positively on a personal level translate that to intent to vote for her.

One other interesting observation from the numbers:

-Romney's favorability with moderates is 5 point higher than with conservatives. That's quite a contrast to everyone else in the field, who have favorabilities at least 18 points higher with conservatives than moderates. For Palin the gap is 36 points, for Gingrich it's 24 points, and for Huckabee it's 18 points.


http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/another-tie-at-top.html

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2010 12:14 pm 
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This must have been piggy-backed off of the 2012 poll. Folks, do we want to win over those Independents?????

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Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Looking at the Undecideds Nationally


Our most recent national poll found that among voters undecided about how they'll vote for Congress this fall the major national political figure who inspires the strongest feelings in them is Sarah Palin. I don't know that there is any sure fire strategy that will help Democrats mitigate their losses this fall but running against Palin could be it.

The undecideds are pretty ambivalent when it comes to their feelings about Barack Obama- 44% of them approve of him and 44% disapprove so he's pretty much a wash. Narrow majorities of them do like some other major Democratic figures- 55/31 favorability for Hillary Clinton, 51/28 for Michelle Obama, 52/39 for Bill Clinton. It's too bad for the party they can't send Hillary out on the campaign trail but with the remaining undecideds the First Lady and the former President should be a positive influence.

None of those folks inspire nearly as strong of feelings with this fall's swing voters as Sarah Palin though. A whooping 65% of them have an unfavorable opinion of her to only 17% who see her in a positive light. And it's not as if that's a function of the remaining undecideds strongly disliking Republicans across the board-only 41% have a negative opinion of Glenn Beck and Newt Gingrich and that falls to 33% for Mike Huckabee and just 25% for Mitt Romney.

The group of folks who haven't made up their minds yet is 14% Democrats, 21% Republicans, and 65% independents. They're not really sold on the President but they know they don't like Sarah Palin- making the Republican Party the Palin Party could help push Democratic candidates across the finish line in a lot of this year's close races.


http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/looking-at-undecideds-nationally.html

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2010 1:06 pm 
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Another good poll for Huck. It is really hard for me to blieve that he wont run getting numbers like this. It will be a Romney, Huck and dark horse showdown in my opinion.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2010 5:52 pm 
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Sadly, if talk radio is any indication of things to come, much of conservativeville would love nothing better than to have Palin as the face of the GOP. We all know what a disaster she would be for the GOP and those wascally Washington insiders know it as well, but can the Rush/Sean/Levin/Beck/etc. crowd be stopped from doing this to us in 2012? We can only hope so.

Still, Huck remains in a solid position as usual.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 22, 2010 7:36 pm 
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Always love how Romney does well with moderates over conservatives while we were spoon fed by talk radio that he was the only "Real Conservative" to get very far in the 2008 primary. Wonder if they'll try that again in 2011.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 24, 2010 4:42 am 
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I've been looking for a good thread to post this on, but if some of you remember my posts from the past I was one of those who wasn't all that sure Huckabee would run in 2012, and I was saying that not too long after the 2008 primary was over. As a Christian I believe in divine providence. For those who don't understand what I mean by that essentially I'm saying I believe things will happen when they are suppose to happen :D

The only Repub I would be really uncomfortable with would be Romney. But I remember going back to the 1984 Repub convention. It was the convention that Reagan was being nominated to run for re-election. Jack Kemp was the speaker. There were all kinds of KEMP 88 posters in the room that night. A lot of people like me thought he was the natural heir to take the Reagan legacy and carry it further. Instead we got George H. Bush and a return to Republican politics as usual which is where we've essentially been ever since.

I say this to you all because I know what it is like to get your hopes up. I know what it is like to believe that the time is absolutely perfect for your man to step up and achieve all the things you believe needs to happen. I know what it is like to believe it is fore-ordained by God himself and nothing can possibly stop it. And then I know what it is like to feel totally deflated. I don't understand why we had to go backwards and stay there for so many years. The only thing I can think of is that the grass roots wasn't ready to stand up to the party elite and make the move that was necessary to propel an outsider to the top.

I say that because just getting to the place of being President is not enough. You have to get there at a time when the country is ready to back you as you do the tough things necessary to get us back on track. The Tea Party movement has been a good start, but I still don't know if America is ready to make the tough choices and do what is necessary. When that time does come we will need a leader who can rise up at that point and lead. If that point isn't now but will come later then I say let Huckabee run later.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:38 am 
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I know what you mean by getting our hopes up. But, I have been watching what is going on with the rival candidates and Mike Huckabee. MH may be in the right position at the right time. It will be interesting to watch how everything plays out.

I think the people in America want a candidate who is authentic, likeable and charismatic...that's Mike Huckabee. The people want somebody who will not have a negative campaign on personal issues and will work with the Democrats too....that's Mike Huckabee.

Because he is a Christian preacher, some of the Independents will not want him as their candidate unless MH can convince them that he isn't going to drag them to church. MH needs to explain what he means by the statement that is faith defines him. We might know what he means, but non-believers don't know...they just hear "faith" and then turn him off. I grew up Catholic but am now an Evangelical. I have sat in church and hear lingo that is familiar, and I now know what it means, but if somebody just visited a Christian church for the first time, they would not understand the terms we use every Sunday. Those are the people that MH needs to explain his "terms" to. His statement about the Constitution needs to be more like the Bible scared a lot of people away in the 2008 primaries, even some Christians. I saw many comments made at other websites from Christians who didn't understand what MH meant and were scared off by this statement.

There have been many small things that have happened during 2010 that point to a MH primary as being more acceptable than the 2008 primary. We will see how God brings the pieces together IF this is His will.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 25, 2010 7:08 am 
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This is an interesting poll. It will also be interesting to see where voters lean in 2012. It seems for 2010, voters are leaning all the way to the fence of Libertarianism and social values have taken a back seat. So I am surprised to see that Ron Paul on got 6% in this poll. It may have to do with voters perception of the man rather than his politics. Thoughts?

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 25, 2010 10:16 am 
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Great to see you back Kuphoff.

I used to think Huckabee was not going to run. But for the last couple of months I have thought differently. Notice his values voter speech. There was not one scriptural reference. Huckabee talked about God, such as when he said God did not intend for government to raise our families. But pretty much, that speech was toned down of religious references. I think he will continue with that, which will invite non-religious voters to support him. Yet people like me who want to keep God bless America, In God we Trust, etc, he will keep us happy because he truly does believe that our country needs God.

But like I posted on another thread, I think it would be best if Huckabee came out with his own contract with America and used it for his 2012 run. So far, he has said he would add Term Limits and a Balanced Budget Amendment. He would add the Fairtax. Anyone else have ideas of what Huckabee's contract would look like?

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:45 am 
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I think we got a glimpse of what a Huckabee contract might include this morning on Fox & Friends when he discussed the GOP pledge. He said including these things would have told voters the GOP is serious about change (that's a paraphrase)

term limits
eliminating earmarks
balanced budget amendment


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:04 pm 
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I dunno about the term limit thing. I know it's a populist type of thing with some people, but the voters action of putting most incumbants back into office time and time again doesn't seem to show much enthusiasm for term limits afterall. I kinda like having had someone like Duncan Hunter in congress for 20 years and hope his son keeps that seat for a long time as well. We can always point out the bums in congress who should have been sent home a long time ago, but would a better person be elected in Nancy Pelosi's district if she had to pack up? Probably just another crazed lefty would replace her.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 25, 2010 1:16 pm 
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You could have a sort of term limit which would mean that you cannot spend more than for instance 12 years in congress without a break - you'd have to take a break from politics and if you wanted to, you could return six years later after having spent some time in reality. I know some people here in Sweden support that.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 26, 2010 5:26 am 
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Vote For Truth wrote:
I know what you mean by getting our hopes up. But, I have been watching what is going on with the rival candidates and Mike Huckabee. MH may be in the right position at the right time. It will be interesting to watch how everything plays out.

I think the people in America want a candidate who is authentic, likeable and charismatic...that's Mike Huckabee. The people want somebody who will not have a negative campaign on personal issues and will work with the Democrats too....that's Mike Huckabee.

Because he is a Christian preacher, some of the Independents will not want him as their candidate unless MH can convince them that he isn't going to drag them to church. MH needs to explain what he means by the statement that is faith defines him. We might know what he means, but non-believers don't know...they just hear "faith" and then turn him off. I grew up Catholic but am now an Evangelical. I have sat in church and hear lingo that is familiar, and I now know what it means, but if somebody just visited a Christian church for the first time, they would not understand the terms we use every Sunday. Those are the people that MH needs to explain his "terms" to. His statement about the Constitution needs to be more like the Bible scared a lot of people away in the 2008 primaries, even some Christians. I saw many comments made at other websites from Christians who didn't understand what MH meant and were scared off by this statement.

There have been many small things that have happened during 2010 that point to a MH primary as being more acceptable than the 2008 primary. We will see how God brings the pieces together IF this is His will.


I appreciate this perspective, Vote For Truth, and that of ConservTexan who says (paraphrased), "we who know Mike Huckabee will realize that, although he does not reference the Bible directly, he would lead our nation with God as His foundation." He will do this just as did those many Americans before him who governed our "one nation under God" with the belief that "in God we trust" and the knowledge that "one Creator" has endowed us with certain inalienable rights.

I hope that there are many citizens of Arkansas who will step forward to let the rest of America know how Mike Huckabee governed for ten years without being "in your face" about religion. They need to help still the voice of the talk show hosts and Republican elite who can mischaracterize and misrepresent Huckabee without basis. That will help the rest of us approach doubters with objective facts.

As to what Huckabee would have in his own pledge--has he said anything about what he thinks about Paul Ryan's Road Map for America?

WalterCan, it's good to have your perspective once again also. :)

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 26, 2010 5:37 am 
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Wendero wrote:
You could have a sort of term limit which would mean that you cannot spend more than for instance 12 years in congress without a break - you'd have to take a break from politics and if you wanted to, you could return six years later after having spent some time in reality. I know some people here in Sweden support that.


Wendero, I appreciate your posts because you come from a different perspective. Would you give a short summary again of why you are so interested in American politics for my husband who wonders why you are a member of HucksArmy?

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 26, 2010 9:38 am 
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Maryjthom,

Definitely! Just glad people are showing an interest :)

I got interested in politics at the young age of 10. I had always had interests others didn't, and when I accidentally saw a leaflet from a party my uncle was a member of, I was stuck. I wanted to do a career in politics (not so anymore), something not many kids wanted (actually, I was locally known as the kid who wanted to become PM :P)

My interest in american politics started in 2003 (roughly), with the Iraq war. I admit I was against the war; I was not as conservative back then. The thing was that Sweden was having a referendum on the euro and I was against it, just like the communists, and so I was naive enough to trust them on some other issues as well (though I never bought into their economic policies). I was discussing on a local forum when I bumped into a guy named Ronie, who was much older than me but who soon realized that although we were on different sides of the fence, I was mature and I wanted to learn.

So, I started to talk to him more actively in 2004, and he won me over to the neoconservative side. I really looked up to him (still do) and his commitment to his beliefs - Ronie went to campaign for Bush in 2004 (I plan to campaign for Huckabee next year if he runs, so I guess I'm a copycat;)).

My first american election was in 2004 when I stayed up until 5 AM to watch the results come in. I was happy Bush won, although I probably would have been even happier if I had known the full extent of the disasters liberalism cause.

I never really bought into socialism. I was always a rebel who believed firmly in my right to control my life and my money. The school system, built up by the socialists, disgusted me all from the time when I was just 6-7 years old. Of course back then I didn't know anything about politics, but the beliefs were somehow still there. I would show interest in many ideologies and parties before settling for conservatism, but I don't know how much I really changed; the goals were the same, queston was how to reach them.

How did I hear of Huckabee? Well, through Ronie. That was in December 2007, and I was lamenting the fact that there were no conservative candidates in the Republican race. Ronie said that actually, there was one conservative named Mike Huckabee whom he had heard of. "Can he win?" I asked, "I think so" he said. So I searched on youtube and google and found some great videos and decided that this was my guy :) Ironically, Ronie himself is not a Huckabee supporter (he is currently not supporting anyone), he supported McCain in 2008 (because of foreign policy issues, which are very important to him).

I also want to confess that the first candidate I supported in the 2008 race was Sam Brownback, but that's just because I was uninformed and he was the first conservative candidate I heard of :oops:

So, there you got it. Sorry if it's too long, I'm just not good at being brief ;)

/John G


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 27, 2010 10:59 pm 
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When I referenced 1988 and my hopes for Jack Kemp I recognize it isn't exactly a parallel comparison. Huckabee has a much better chance to win in 2012 then Kemp did in 1988. It turned out that while Kemp would have made a great President he was a terrible campaigner. It also hurt him that in 1988 two other conservatives ran (Dupont and Robertson) with Robertson taking much of the evangelical base.

I still don't have any idea what Huckabee will do or what the outcome will be, but I have learned that you have to ultimately trust in God and his timing no matter what.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:55 pm 
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Mike has mentioned several times, about getting out of the UN. I think that would be on his contract.

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