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PostPosted: Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:40 pm 
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PPP provides 2012 numbers in CA, MI and WV.

Romney leads in MI -- if he didn't, he shouldn't either bother to run. But Palin, Gingrich and Huckabee are clustered together within the MOE

Romney..........30%
Palin...............17%
Gingrich...........16%
Huckabee.........14%

CA, for me, is a pleasant surprise. Although Romney leads, as expected, he is not running way with it and, again, Palin, Gingrich and Huckabee are clustered together within the MOE - Numbers from previous PPP poll in brackets

Romney..........24% (25% [-1]%
Palin...............18% (18%) - Same
Gingrich...........21% (28%) - [7]%
Huckabee.........17% (13) - + 4%

And Huckabee wins in West VA, with Romney and Gingrich trailing

Huckabee........27%
Palin...............24%
Gingrich...........16%
Romney...........13%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/ ... MI_924.pdf


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:51 pm 
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Interesting. What do you guys think about this? Any interesting analysis?


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:26 pm 
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I dont think any of us thought Huckabee really had a shot at Cali, or Mich.. but its nice to see the WV numbers. :) oddly enough he also has went up in California?


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:27 pm 
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californiaforhuck wrote:
Interesting. What do you guys think about this? Any interesting analysis?


Three issues immediately leap to mind:

1. Gingrich seems to have slipped away somewhat and, at least in WV and CA, Huckabee appears to be the beneficiary

2. In MI and CA, Gingrich, Palin and Huck are all within the MOE -- so where do the conservatives go as the field narrows down

2. PPP places undue emphasis on "moderates" -- for whatever that is worth


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:39 pm 
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Great results.

We are closing the gap in California. 2008 California results:
Romney 35%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 4%

Michigan:
Romney 39%
Huckabee 16%
Paul 6%

WV isn't even a caucus but a convention...at least it was in 2008. Huckabee barely won it after trailing Romney at first so the polling data is good.

This means the Huckabee to Romney gap in MI has gone from 23% to 16%.
And the Huckabee to Romney gap in CA has gone from 23% to 7%.

Very positive!


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:46 pm 
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PrinciplesMatter wrote:
Great results.

We are closing the gap in California. 2008 California results:
Romney 35%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 4%

Michigan:
Romney 39%
Huckabee 16%
Paul 6%

WV isn't even a caucus but a convention...at least it was in 2008. Huckabee barely won it after trailing Romney at first so the polling data is good.

This means the Huckabee to Romney gap in MI has gone from 23% to 16%.
And the Huckabee to Romney gap in CA has gone from 23% to 7%.

Very positive!



Wow, when you put it that way.... it really is good news. :)


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:47 pm 
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Attachment:
Cal-Mi Analysis.png

(Only 1 poll for WV)


You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:30 pm 
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That is a huge gap closing in CA! Great news! We must consider that both WV and CA will be after the IA, NH, and SC triangle so not all four will be in. I believe it is still iffy if Palin runs. I know she has done a lot of hinting that she will run but that keeps $$$$ going into her pockets, especially with a new book coming out. She keeps going with with the line, "I don't need a title..." but if she does run she will lose Iowa and become a non-factor.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 28, 2010 4:03 pm 
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bmk2307 wrote:
Attachment:
Cal-Mi Analysis.png

(Only 1 poll for WV)

Brett,
Thanks for the chart - very helpful!

Couple questions: Gingrich in CA - should the second column read +16?

Also, in the current MI poll, were there any other names on the list? Column 2 only adds to 93%. (Sorry, I haven't looked at the link yet...I just got curious because Romney & Palin together came down 14 points, but the others only picked up 8 points altogether.)

Mary

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 28, 2010 4:28 pm 
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WhatsNotToLike? wrote:
Brett,
Thanks for the chart - very helpful!

Couple questions: Gingrich in CA - should the second column read +16?

Also, in the current MI poll, were there any other names on the list? Column 2 only adds to 93%. (Sorry, I haven't looked at the link yet...I just got curious because Romney & Palin together came down 14 points, but the others only picked up 8 points altogether.)

Mary

Yup definitely should read 16% :oops: :lol:

Yes, PPP usually includes a "Someone Else" slot as well, which was (6%), so with rounding errors would equal 100%

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 28, 2010 4:31 pm 
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bmk2307 wrote:
WhatsNotToLike? wrote:
Brett,
Thanks for the chart - very helpful!

Couple questions: Gingrich in CA - should the second column read +16?

Also, in the current MI poll, were there any other names on the list? Column 2 only adds to 93%. (Sorry, I haven't looked at the link yet...I just got curious because Romney & Palin together came down 14 points, but the others only picked up 8 points altogether.)

Mary

Yup definitely should read 16% :oops: :lol:

Yes, PPP usually includes a "Someone Else" slot as well, which was (6%), so with rounding errors would equal 100%

Thanks again!

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 28, 2010 5:35 pm 
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Question is, will MI & CA be dividing up delegates according to the percentage of the vote each candidate gets or are they now winner take all? I know Huck picked up a delagate or two in MI last time around, this poll would suggest he could pick up a few more. A delegate here, a delegate there and before you know it, Huck is the nominee. 8)

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 28, 2010 6:36 pm 
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March states will be proportional. April and on will be state choice it depends when they go.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 29, 2010 9:50 am 
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goalieman wrote:
Question is, will MI & CA be dividing up delegates according to the percentage of the vote each candidate gets or are they now winner take all? I know Huck picked up a delagate or two in MI last time around, this poll would suggest he could pick up a few more. A delegate here, a delegate there and before you know it, Huck is the nominee. 8)


CA gave Romney a few delegates in '08 after receiving 35% of the vote.

McCain 1,238,988 votes 42% 155 delegates

Romney 1,013,471 votes 35% 15 delegates

Huckabee 340,669 12% 0

Paul 125,365 4% 0
From http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#CA

I'm not sure if Michigan will be relevant in 2012. From what I've read they reverted back to the 4th Tuesday in February for their primary - unless they decide to change their primary date again.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 29, 2010 11:41 am 
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California was a winner-take-all state by district. Meaning that 3 delegates were awarded for each congressional distract won by a given Presidential candidate.

If CA goes in March again in 2012, they will be forced by RNC rules to be proportional otherwise, they will have to go in April or later.


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