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PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 9:36 pm 
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Hannity just mentioned the poll and gave Huck his proper due! He mentioned also the numbers for Romney and Gingrich but said nothing about Palin.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 9:48 pm 
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Steadfast wrote:
Hannity just mentioned the poll and gave Huck his proper due! He mentioned also the numbers for Romney and Gingrich but said nothing about Palin.


yep.

"Republican candidates leading in a match-up with Obama"

"Huckabee leading"

"Romney leading"

"Gingrich in a virtual tie" (he's down by two)

nothing on Palin.

(who looks REALLY weak in this poll - frankly you can't say much about Huckabee's 2012 chances against Obama from this but you sure can with Palin. If she's this far behind as a completely known commodity the day after Obama brings about the biggest Republican national surge ever...well.

no elaboration on the poll or its implications.

no guest comment.

straight to a break.

no follow-up after the break.

There...says Hannity...I covered the poll...now the Hucklovers won't flood the servers.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 9:53 pm 
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Hey Southern Doc,

Seems like the republican make-up in 2012 will be the establishment vs. anit-establishment/tea partier?

If so, you think Huckabee can become the anti-establishment's leader?


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 10:06 pm 
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Romney will be the pro-establishment, shaky on repealing health care candidate. Palin or Huckabee will be the anti-establishment candidate. I think Palin or Huckabee will win the nomination, with the edge to Huckabee. The White House seems to see it this way too.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 10:41 pm 
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Thanks to both of you for sending this to Drudge. I went over to Drudge and couldn't find anything about the poll. :wall


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 10:45 pm 
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I bet Hannity was trying not to gag while he was talking about the poll.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 10:48 pm 
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FiscalConservative wrote:
Hey Southern Doc,

Seems like the republican make-up in 2012 will be the establishment vs. anit-establishment/tea partier?

If so, you think Huckabee can become the anti-establishment's leader?


I think the nomenclature is completely misleading.

What is Mike?

"Establishment" because he's never broken ranks to endorse a non-Republican and endorsed McCain (rather well at the Convention). Wouldn’t someone with four elections and 12 years in public office under his belt be considered "establishment?"

"Anti-establishment" since he is largely opposed by the K-street and Wallstreet lobbys and calls out Rove for arrogance?

"Tea Party" because he was early to endorse Rubio or Miller and defended O'Donnell?

Furthermore these terms are often hurled as exclusive shibboleths. It's like those who think if you identify as an evangelical or social conservative it means you must not be a fiscal or foreign policy conservative.

The demographic polling data strongly suggests that the "Tea Party" is really simply an over-stamp of existing factions (libertarian and evangelical Christian mostly) of traditionally GOP voting conservatives. Their anger and frustration, including extreme disappointment with the impotence and complicity of the GOP 2008 leadership, fused together disparate factions in the shared goal of (in the words of that other establishment-anti-establishment-tea party-evangelical-Washington insider-common man governor elect of Ohio John Kaisch) to "STAND FOR SOMETHING."

So there really isn't any "Tea Party" bloc that can be banked by a candidate anymore than there is an "evangelical" bloc than can be banked (as Huck well knows). These are folks with a fairly predictable identifiable political orthodoxy which includes a fierce autonomous streak (something libertarians and evangelicals share). They must be won over and will not be told who to vote for by candidates or "movement leaders."

Huck has an excellent grasp on the core of conservative thought that expresses itself in the politics of "evangelicals" "tea party" and even "libertarian." Whenever he gives voice to his core ideology it resonants. This time he'll get far greater opportunity to have his voice heard early and often and can (and is) win over the conservative voters he needs. In 2008 he had to cater to the evangelical base who had a social obligation to listen to him. By the time his voice was loud enough to try to be heard outside that group, most of the hearers had stopped listening and had made their "first choices." Strangely most of the voters who didn't listen last time will give him a "fair hearing" this time. Americans are genuinely very fair and smart that way. Romney will also get a second hearing. So will Palin. But what is important is who will best voice both the problems we face and a vision to defeat them?

Mike is at a great advantage in this.

In 2008 there really wasn't an establishment candidate until very late in the process. There were many. But there was only one viable anti-establishment candidate - Mike. But the anti-establishment candidate NEVER wins (including Reagan). What happens is he fights long and successfully enough to be embraced by a fraction of the "establishment" which (if victorious) becomes the "new" establishment (like "Jacksonian Democrats" or "Reagan Republicans").

So, long answer, Huck will be viable and I think will win given the current lay of the land. He will do this because this time he will be able to appeal to both the insurgents (with whom he most identifies) and the established (who want victory badly and fear loser candidates and rogues more than death itself) party regulars.

That's my take.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 10:48 pm 
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Vote For Truth wrote:
Thanks to both of you for sending this to Drudge. I went over to Drudge and couldn't find anything about the poll. :wall


It's currently toward the middle of the page at http://drudgereport.com/

Maybe this will help you find it easier:

Quote:
Image
Iranians stage mass protest against 'Great Satan' USA...

CNNPoll: GOP candidates top Obama in hypothetical 2012
race...


Final nail in coffin for 'Net neutrality'?

Military ready for war in cyberspace...
Image

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 10:52 pm 
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Okay, I'm having visions of the GOP finally embracing GH rather than risk a Palin nomination, only to have Palin become the Ross Perot of 2012. I can see her declaring that the GOP is hopelessly corrupt because they rejected HER & that we need a 3rd party. She & Todd are libertarians at heart already... :P


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 11:10 pm 
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QuoVadisAnima wrote:
Okay, I'm having visions of the GOP finally embracing GH rather than risk a Palin nomination, only to have Palin become the Ross Perot of 2012. I can see her declaring that the GOP is hopelessly corrupt because they rejected HER & that we need a 3rd party. She & Todd are libertarians at heart already... :P


yep!

What you think she might entertain the notion of...

Going Rogue

Quote:

rogue [ rōg ]


noun (plural rogues)

Definition:

1. somebody dishonest: an unscrupulous or dishonest person, especially somebody who is also likable


2. somebody mischievous: a mischievously playful person, especially a naughty child


3. dangerous solitary animal: a vicious or uncontrolled animal that lives apart from the rest of its herd or group




Anyone who...

will walk away from office because she doesn't like the heat, then justifies it as for the good of Alaska, or was it to momma gizzlie protect her family, who end up on Dancing with the Stars as she then jumps into the media malestorm of 2010 primaries...you get the idea...

can do anything.

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"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 11:21 pm 
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Thanks for your always so thoughtful analysis Southern Doc :)

I'm not sure if I want them to "embrace" Huckabee - I mostly look forward to them finally accepting the fact that Huckabee will win. Get over the denial stage, sort of.

I don't think they are capable of embracing such a candidate as Huckabee. But I could be wrong.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 11:37 pm 
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Southern Doc wrote:
QuoVadisAnima wrote:
Okay, I'm having visions of the GOP finally embracing GH rather than risk a Palin nomination, only to have Palin become the Ross Perot of 2012. I can see her declaring that the GOP is hopelessly corrupt because they rejected HER & that we need a 3rd party. She & Todd are libertarians at heart already... :P


yep!

What you think she might entertain the notion of...

Going Rogue

Quote:

rogue [ rōg ]


noun (plural rogues)

Definition:

1. somebody dishonest: an unscrupulous or dishonest person, especially somebody who is also likable


2. somebody mischievous: a mischievously playful person, especially a naughty child


3. dangerous solitary animal: a vicious or uncontrolled animal that lives apart from the rest of its herd or group






Anyone who...

will walk away from office because she doesn't like the heat, then justifies it as for the good of Alaska, or was it to momma gizzlie protect her family, who end up on Dancing with the Stars as she then jumps into the media malestorm of 2010 primaries...you get the idea...

can do anything.


The thing that also is overlooked about Palin is that she lacks experience. She only served 18 months as AK governor and we already seem to be suffering from a lack of experience in the White House.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 11:42 pm 
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After listening to Palin post-election I'm more convinced she is going to run. Even if she was leaning against it I sincerely believe the likes of Hannity and Rush would talk her into it. But as I've said before once she stands on a stage with Huckabee, Romney, Newt, and others it is going to be obvious that she is not ready for prime-time. I don't think she will be a spoiler. I see her coming in 3rd at best in Iowa and maybe lower in NH. After that her money will start to dry up, and while she could try to stay on through SC she won't do well here either, and it will be over.

What to watch for with Palin is whether or not Romney goes after her to try and eat at her support. I believe Huckabee will be smart and treat her respectfully and not go after her in any way. If Romney goes after her it will solidify the belief in the Palin supporters that the establishment is after her, and they will not break toward Romney at all once Palin is out.


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 9:00 am 
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NYT:
Image

Short article if you feel like reading:
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/r ... cMH9F29OcN

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 10:06 am 
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ConservTexan wrote:
NYT:
Image

Short article if you feel like reading:
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/r ... cMH9F29OcN


I'm not a betting person. When I saw the NYT odds, it reminded me of how someone at ROS (Illinoisguy maybe?) keeps saying Huck has no chance because of the odds at some betting site. Does anyone know what site he used to refer to and whether or not there is any change since he creamed Obama in the CNN 2012 poll :?:

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 10:11 am 
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GrannyT

I believe he was talking about intrade. And sure enough, Huckabee is still way behind on intrade.

Romney
Palin
Thune
Pawlenty
Gingrich
Huckabee :?

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 10:18 am 
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ConservTexan wrote:
GrannyT

I believe he was talking about intrade. And sure enough, Huckabee is still way behind on intrade.

Romney
Palin
Thune
Pawlenty
Gingrich
Huckabee :?


Thank you, Debbie. Do you know much about intrade? Do people put up real money or virtual money? Could the reason Huckabee trails be because not many of us gamble? Or am I among a minority of oddballs?

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 10:39 am 
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I am a betting person from time to time, and I have to admit I made alot of money on intrade last year voting on Huckabee in the primarys..... So i know intrade has always way undervalued the gov.


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 10:41 am 
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GrannyT wrote:
ConservTexan wrote:
GrannyT

I believe he was talking about intrade. And sure enough, Huckabee is still way behind on intrade.

Romney
Palin
Thune
Pawlenty
Gingrich
Huckabee :?


Thank you, Debbie. Do you know much about intrade? Do people put up real money or virtual money? Could the reason Huckabee trails be because not many of us gamble? Or am I among a minority of oddballs?



Thats exactly right, many of Hucks supporters dont gamble., im prob the exception. You play with real money, its located in Ireland. Dont know how safe it is any more though. the US has blocked using your CC putting money on that site.


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 10:57 am 
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charleslawlesss wrote:
Thats exactly right, many of Hucks supporters dont gamble., im prob the exception. You play with real money, its located in Ireland. Dont know how safe it is any more though. the US has blocked using your CC putting money on that site.


Thank you for replying. I tried visiting the site and couldn't even figure out how to find how Huckabee is doing. Guess I'll forget about checking out how he's doing there - especially if they consistently underestimate Huckabee anyway.

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