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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 11:29 am 
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any one wondering intrade has Huckabee at about 10 to 1 odds, but the odds are directly determined by how many people are betting on him, and not by odds makers.


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 11:45 am 
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Intrade is a lot of conventional wisdom anyways. It's not a leading indicator of what will happen. It lags behind. You'd have to be clueless to bet on Romney. Just having a lot of money doesn't make you a good candidate. All you need is enough money to get your message out. That was a problem for Huckabee in 2008, but he still did fairly well. He'll have more money this time around for sure. He won't be the richest candidate, but he'll have enough. He's the clear favorite to win Iowa if he runs, and we all know how important that early momentum is. Of course he won't win New Hampshire, but he'll win South Carolina and then the large majority of states after that with all the wind at his back. You have to think dynamically to see it. Current polling doesn't matter, and who has more money doesn't matter.


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 3:54 pm 
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I was wondering how Limbaugh would address the issue of 2012 polls considering Palin doesn't do well and Mike does. So I listened today. He was quick to say how pointless 2012 polls are this far out and how much they can change. He did this twice in the hour or so I listened. Obviously a pro-Mike... anti-Palin poll does not fit his template. But I'm sure if the numbers had been reversed he would have treated the poll as practically gospel.


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 4:20 pm 
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Governor Huckabee was just on Cavuto. Very sage comments. Talked about the new poll with the Gov up 8 pts on President Obama. Neil said, "Now we want to start, just to cover bases, start sucking up to you. Because I'm thinking man, I could be sitting across from the next President of the United States".

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 4:32 pm 
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kuphoff wrote:
Governor Huckabee was just on Cavuto. Very sage comments. Talked about the new poll with the Gov up 8 pts on President Obama. Neil said, "Now we want to start, just to cover bases, start sucking up to you. Because I'm thinking man, I could be sitting across from the next President of the United States".

Mike may have to overcome the Limbaughs, Coulters, Hannitys and Levins out there but I think he will still have some powerful voices (that are less polarizing and less parrots of their audience) out there, like Cavuto, Gerardo, and Norris. And I think Rubio will endorse Mike and a lot of republican governors elected.


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 4:32 pm 
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kuphoff wrote:
Governor Huckabee was just on Cavuto. Very sage comments. Talked about the new poll with the Gov up 8 pts on President Obama. Neil said, "Now we want to start, just to cover bases, start sucking up to you. Because I'm thinking man, I could be sitting across from the next President of the United States".


:D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 4:43 pm 
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IowaforHuckabee wrote:
kuphoff wrote:
Governor Huckabee was just on Cavuto. Very sage comments. Talked about the new poll with the Gov up 8 pts on President Obama. Neil said, "Now we want to start, just to cover bases, start sucking up to you. Because I'm thinking man, I could be sitting across from the next President of the United States".


:D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D



I'd love to see that video posted at ROS :wink:

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 5:14 pm 
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I will work on that for Saturday morning.

Please add comments to my blog when I do.

ROS needs to see more Huckabee supporter comments.

Since it will be my blog, I will delete all nasty comments aimed at Huckabee.

So you will feel safe, knowing that there won't be a hail storm of negativity.

Of course, I will also delete nasty comments about any of the candidates.

Gotta be fair and balanced :wink:

Look for the video and a blog on Saturday morning!

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 5:33 pm 
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Personally, I'm going to write a blog post on ROS comparing the Swedish pentecostal/charismatic movement to the Tea Party Movement in the US. Look for a post titled "A tale of two movements". It will be about how the TPM resembles the pentecostal movement and how they might fail in the same way the Swedish pentecostals failed (there are surprisingly many similarities).

Looking forward to the video Tex :) Now if only Sean Hannity could draw the same conclusion...

/John


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 6:09 pm 
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Well, the usual suspects were already go after Huck last night (the insane Michael Savage and local guy Dom Giordano), but there was at least one twist this time around: they blasted Romney as well! :shock: If the talk radio crowd dilutes their nominal strength by not having a single candidate to get behind, that bodes well for Huck. :D

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 10:07 pm 
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One of the advantages of Palin running is that I do believe she will be immediately labeled as the Tea Party Candidate while Romney is labeled as the Establishment Candidate. As I said in a previous post if Romney plays into this by going after her then it really really helps us out. My view is that the establishment will be so concerned about Palin that they will train most of their fire on her. In turn I believe you'll see the likes of Limbaugh turning around and firing back at Romney.

So who could that leave representing the pragmatic middle who appeals not only to grass roots conservatives but moderates and independents? Hmm, wonder who :)


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 10:47 pm 
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Add Hugh Hewitt (big surprise there :roll: ) of the talk show nimrods attacking Huck already. He managed to say Huck would be a "disaster" as a candidate 3 times in 10 seconds, possibly a new record for him. The fact is, the talk radio yackers know Huck can win and it scares them to death! Why does it bother them so much you may ask? I think it simply comes down to the fact that Huck doesn't need them and won't grovel before them and thus not give them the presence that they so desire in any GOP hopefuls campaign/office. They want to be the door that you have to go thru to be the GOP's nominee, if someone doesn't play that game with them, then out come the fangs! A sad lot most talk radio jocks have become.

Gonna be a tough fight ahead of us, but it's a winnable one! 8)

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 10:48 pm 
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I know all of you will think I'm crazy, but yesterday I received an e-mail to vote for Huckabee in the "Who is the strongest candidate" under "Huck's Army Projects". I went to vote in the poll, and I noticed this poll was written because Gary Bauer was asking the question. So I wrote Gary Bauer (it showed his e-mail address) and he wrote me back. I wrote him back tonight, but I wanted to post it in case any of you would like to write him about Huckabee too. You would need to go to the bottom to see my first letter to him. Here it is:

Mr. Bauer,

Unfortunately, you probably don't see "Huckabee" on the weekends or you would hear how Mike Huckabee has always been attacking Pres Obama's policies. Surely you haven't been included in the masses who think because they only HEAR what Sarah Palin's says, that she is the only one against Obama. It's because of people like you who don't do their own homework on the other candidates that believe everything the Republican pundits say (BTW, those pundits like Rush are only for Sarah Palin). If you had noticed, Rush was ONLY for Romney in 2008, and look how wrong he was then, just like now! Mike Huckabee says all the time criticism against Obama, he just doesn't get the publicity like Palin. You know, of course, that the same "fighter" instincts that you see in her and obviously want in our next Republican nominee, is exactly why Palin would never win in the General Election. The Democrats who are upset with Obama, the Independents and Moderates hate her because of how she has spoken about them during the last year. You have to admit that she has been very "brash" and "divisive" in her language against them and all the polls in the last 18 months show that they hate her for it.

Leaders like you do NOT decide who the nominee is, and you are right it's the voters. That is why Mike Huckabee went so far in 2008, and with NO MONEY OR SUPPORT FROM LEADERS LIKE YOU!!! But, he needs all the Christian leaders to endorse him and give him the donations he so desperately needs in 2012, he can be more viable and electable. It is great to win these polls, 4 of them in the last two days, because it shows how many people like Mike Huckabee and would support him. He can't win without the money to do well in campaigning....that's why he needs all of you to support and endorse him. If he had Romney's money in the 2008 Primary, Mike Huckabee would have won. He thought that since he had been a minister and certainly a Christian, he would be able to count on the Christian leaders support financially to help him. Huckabee supporters watched as Christian leaders did not endorse him, they endorsed people they thought would win, not according to Christian principles, but according to who was the most electable. We have been very disappointed in the values these Christian leaders have chosen to follow. Why don't you endorse this man of God, give him the financial means he needs to win, and let God be the judge of who HE wants to win. Aren't you as a man of God responsible to God first for who you choose to endorse according to God's guidelines, not man's? That's how I make up my mind on who to support because when I stand before God I will have to answer for all of my decisions. I want a person who is a true Christian with 10 1/2 yrs. executive experience to govern this country....don't you??? I want to live my life every day as a Christian and that means to me choosing godly men, like Mike Huckabee, represent our country with his good values and his decision to live for Christ.

Instead Christian leaders endorsed Guiliani who is pro-choice and pro-gays! They endorsed Mitt Romney who by many past videos shows that he was pro-choice just two years before he decided to run for President. Then he conveniently was pro-life????? He was a bigger flip-flopper than John Kerry and the Dems would have eaten him alive with all that information. Of course, not counting Romneycare which is NOT a Conservative plan. It "mandates" healthcare (Like Obamacare) and it grows the government which is NOT Conservative by any means. No self-respecting Republican could trust Romney to be our President when he implemented the same program in MA.

Mr. Bauer, I am a member of Huck's Army and I have been following Mike Huckabee since 2007 before the Iowa primary. I saw that he had only 1-3% going into the primary in Iowa, Romney had been in Iowa for a year campaigning, yet when the votes came in, the people of Iowa believed in this Christian man and voted for him. He beat Romney by 9% in Iowa spending less than half of what Romney did just in Iowa. I saw that God had His hand on Mike Huckabee, and from that point on, I have listened to all his shows, read everything I can about him, and firmly believe he would be the BEST President for our country. I have listened to what he has been saying for the last year, and Yes, I am positive he is running for President in 2012 based on things he has said and done. He is going to Iowa and South Carolina in the next few weeks. Why would he be doing that except if he is running in 2012? There lots of other things too. It is obvious by the polls that many people love him because they watch his show and have found out what Mike Huckabee is really like, not what the MSM or the Republican Establishment (who don't want a preacher for a nominee) say! Mike Huckabee scored higher with the Independent voters than Mitt Romney....just so you don't think Mike Huckabee is limited to only the Evangelical voters. He could not have won all of those polls if he had not gotten the Independents, Moderates, and even some of the Democrat voters to select him.

Please consider Mike Huckabee when you endorse. No matter what happens in the race, you will have made the right decision.

Sincerely,

Ann Dodds

From: Gary Bauer - AV [mailto:gary.bauer@amvalues.org]
Sent: Friday, November 05, 2010 11:12 AM
To: Ann Dodds
Subject: RE: FIGHTER FOR REPUBLICANS IN 2012

Ann,

Polls taken 2 years before a Presidential race are not worth the paper they are printed on. Romney and Huckabee have no been on the front times taking on Obama/Reid/Pelosi in recent months so they have not been subjected to the media "buzz saw" that Sarah Palin is subjected to every day.

I don't know who I will endorse for the GOP nomination, but I would urge you to get over the idea that "leaders" like myself decide who the nominee is. We don't. Voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, etc. listen to the candidates and then they decide.

Most people I talk to don't believe Huckabee will run in 2012, which would be unfortunate for you since you appear to believe is is the only acceptable candidate for a Christian conservative to support.

Gary

-----Original Message-----
From: Ann Dodds [mailto:dodds41099@sbcglobal.net]
Sent: Fri 11/5/2010 1:27 AM
To: Gary Bauer - AV
Subject: FIGHTER FOR REPUBLICANS IN 2012

Mr. Bauer,



Chris Christie is a fighter, but unfortunately for you, he said AGAIN today he is definitely not running in 2012.



Now Sarah Palin is a fighter, but because of how she speaks she cannot ever win the general election because he none of the Reagan Democrats, Independents or Moderates will vote for her. She blasts the Dems in such language that is insulting to the President, for example, the President doesn't have cojones. In the last few days she also said that CBS stands for "Corrupt Bastards Club". Also, right before the election on Tuesday, Sarah called what the Establishment was saying as "Crap". They had let it be known that they want to take "Sarah Palin Down" because she can win the primary in 2012, but not the general election....again because of Independents and Moderates who do NOT like her. She has the highest unfavorable ratings of all the top tier Republican candidates, and she has had those ratings for the last year. If your organization would endorse a candidate, surely you would NOT consider Sarah Palin with her language problems and her divisive language.



You might think that a candidate has to use that kind of language to be a "fighter" but you would be wrong. Mike Huckabee is a FIGHTER, but he will win the hearts and minds of the American people in the way that most people who are interviewed claim they want. The people want us to discuss issues, not personalities, which Mike Huckabee does every week on his show, "Huckabee" aired at 8:00 p.m. EST on Sat & Sun (in case you haven't watched it). He gets his point across, but he doesn't insult people. There have been many polls done in the last 18 months for the 2012 Presidential Republican candidate, and Mike Huckabee has won most of them. He was the first Republican candidate to beat Obama in a PPP Monthly poll. In the last two days I have seen 3-4 2012 Republican Presidential polls and Mike Huckabee has won 2 out of 3, and only was behind 1 point on the one he lost. Today a CNN poll came out which showed Mike Huckabee with 21%, Romney 20%, Palin 17%. But the interesting thing about that poll is that Mike Huckabee beat Obama by 52-44. Romney beat Obama by 50-45, but Sarah Palin lost to Obama by 52-44...the exact opposite of what Huckabee beat Obama. Mike Huckabee had the highest points for Independents, Republicans, and the highest favorables/lowest unfavorables (which he has had for every poll in the last 18 months) of all the candidates. The Democrats like Mike Huckabee because he shows them respect when they come on his show. If Obama's unemployment and economy are not greatly increased by 2011, the Democrats will be very upset with Obama and will vote for a candidate like Mike Huckabee.....but they would never vote for Sarah Palin because of how she talks about them. Mike Huckabee can be very charismatic and is an excellent speaker (which we need against Obama). He does interviews very well (unlike Sarah Palin who hates to give interviews to anybody but friendly people at Fox News). BTW, two weeks ago, the Obama administration put out the information that they thought Huckabee would be the Republican nominee. They said Romney cannot be elected in the primary because of Romneycare in MA is the father of Obamacare. How would the voters want a Republican who mandated healthcare in MA like Obama mandated healthcare for the country??? They said Palin wouldn't be elected because she quit as Governor after 2 1/2 yrs....which means she won't have near the experience she needs to be President. I know Obama didn't have any more experience when he was elected, but in 2012, he will have LOTS more experience to challenge our eventual nominee.



In 2008, one of the big reasons why Mike Huckabee lost is because he didn't have the endorsements from the Christian leaders like yourself, and, of course, the money from them that he needed to compete. Will you and your organization do that to him again in 2012? Will you endorse this fine Christian man or look for somebody else who YOU think is more electable like you did in 2008?? In so doing, forget about the Christian principles that you say are so important. There is no other Republican candidate stronger against abortion and gay marriage that Mike Huckabee. These polls show you that Mike Huckabee is electable, but he needs your endorsement and especially your donations because he isn't rich like Romney and the money you can give him is needed ASAP. Please talk to your Christian friends/leaders and show them the polls and PLEASE come together and endorse the finest candidate that our country could have, Mike Huckabee.



Thank you for your time. I would appreciate a response.



Sincerely,



Ann Dodds


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 11:12 pm 
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Quote:
Polls taken 2 years before a Presidential race are not worth the paper they are printed on.
Which begs the question: Why then are you doing this poll, Mr. Bauer? :wink:


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 11:36 pm 
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Off topic: Check out this latest post from me on Rightosphere: "A tale of two movements"
http://www.rightosphere.com/blog.php?us ... y_id=10838

QVA, that is a great question. The polls now are not worthless at all, since they might determine who gets into the race and not. Gingrich I think was kind of sure he was getting into it half a year ago, but now I think he is doubting whether it is a good idea. Maybe doubt has even spread to Romney's mind? Just imagine that, a presidential race with no Romney.

/John


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 12:50 am 
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Wendero,

No such luck!


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