Hucks Army - Faith. Family. Freedom. [Grassroots] JOIN HUCKS ARMY | GET INVOLVED | FUNDRAISING | LINKS | LEADERSHIP | ABOUT
It is currently Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:02 am

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 29 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next
Author Message
PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 12:20 am 
Offline
General
User avatar

Joined: Sat May 31, 2008 12:14 am
Posts: 1202
Location: Dallas, Ga
Likes: 36
Liked: 71
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/11/coming-up.html

New Hampshire, California, Colorado, Illinois, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania are up first.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 12:29 am 
Offline
Major

Joined: Sat Sep 26, 2009 9:01 am
Posts: 283
Location: Idaho
Likes: 31
Liked: 34
Sounds like a bunch of Romney strongholds...

_________________
I share Huck's birthday...I was a few years too late though


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 12:38 am 
Offline
***** General

Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 11:21 am
Posts: 2747
Location: Arkansas
Likes: 200
Liked: 653
Chadballer wrote:
Sounds like a bunch of Romney strongholds...


At least we know who is still cutting the checks to PPP.

_________________
"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 3:52 am 
Offline
***** General

Joined: Tue Apr 08, 2008 11:12 am
Posts: 1658
Location: The Occupied Territory of Northern VA
Likes: 257
Liked: 169
They forgot Utah and Michigan. :barf

_________________
Recovering Huck-a-holic


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 4:05 am 
Offline
Lieutenant General

Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2010 10:56 pm
Posts: 960
Likes: 3
Liked: 58
Generic 2012 numbers? Doesn't that mean they're just checking Obama vs generic republican?

Waste of time. Those numbers can be spinned either way easily.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 9:48 am 
Offline
***** General
User avatar

Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2008 11:48 pm
Posts: 2617
Location: Indiana
Likes: 77
Liked: 183
This should be interesting. There is the expectation that Romney would do well in all of these states, but if his numbers are down from earlier polls this could show a trend that his supporters won't like. We cannot assume that these polls will help build any momentum for Romney or anyone else.

The recent CNN poll and AOL favorability poll indicate IMO that Huck is breaking out of his "regional" label.

Let's wait and see :)


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 10:52 am 
Offline
***** General

Joined: Wed Jul 30, 2008 7:23 pm
Posts: 2158
Likes: 4
Liked: 32
Southern Doc wrote:
Chadballer wrote:
Sounds like a bunch of Romney strongholds...


At least we know who is still cutting the checks to PPP.


I love it! :D


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 12:56 pm 
Offline
***** General
User avatar

Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2008 11:48 pm
Posts: 2617
Location: Indiana
Likes: 77
Liked: 183
Here we go:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com ... mbers.html

Quote:
And the GOP primary numbers...

PPP numbers looking ahead to the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination contest in California, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania find Mitt Romney looking strong in New England and the West and Mike Huckabee with a slight edge in the Midwest.

In the critical early state of New Hampshire Romney continues to hold a dominant polling advantage, with 40% to 13% for Huckabee and 10% each for Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin. If Tim Pawlenty, Mike Pence, Mitch Daniels, or John Thune somehow emerges as the winner in New Hampshire they'll be able to truthfully say they started out with nothing- they poll at 4%, 3%, 1%, and 1% respectively.

If Romney really does run he puts the New Hampshire primary at some risk of being irrelevant. If he continues to post huge leads in the polls there other top contenders could end up just writing it off and focusing their efforts on states like Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida that could have more competitive contests.

Romney has a wide lead with both moderates and conservatives in New Hampshire and the same is true for him in Connecticut where he has 28% to 15% for Huckabee, 14% for Gingrich, and 11% for Palin. He looks to have a strong home court advantage in Massachusetts' neighboring states.

In California and Colorado Romney's leads are much narrower and speak to what might have to be his path to the nomination: breaking even with conservatives and cleaning up with moderates. In California he has 25% to 18% for Palin and 15% for Gingrich and Huckabee. He and Palin are actually tied with conservatives at 24% each. But with moderates Romney leads her by a whooping 30-2 margin, giving him the 7 point overall advantage. It's a similar story in Colorado. Overall there Romney's at 22% with Gingrich and Palin tied at 17% and Huckabee back at 14%. With conservatives there it's basically a three way tie with Romney and Gingrich each at 20% and Palin getting 19%. But Romney gets 27% of moderates with Gingrich and Palin both in single digits and that gives him the overall lead.

In Pennsylvania and Illinois it's Huckabee holding a small lead and the results in Illinois are particularly interesting. There Huckabee's at 18%, Gingrich at 17%, Palin at 14%, and Romney all the way back at 12%. An interesting explanation for Romney's poor showing in Illinois is that Tim Pawlenty (7%) and Mitch Daniels (6%) register higher than they do elsewhere. The two of them are particularly strong with Romney's otherwise strong core of moderate voters, getting a total of 18% of the GOP centrist vote between the two of them. It'll be interesting to see, if they do end up running, if they hurt Romney.

Huckabee's lead is wider in Pennsylvania, where he gets 23% to 16% for Palin and Romney and 15% for Gingrich. We'll total it all up when we're done releasing all 18 of these polls but for now it's Romney 4 Huckabee 2 Gingrich 0 Palin 0.

Full results here


Interesting that Huck takes Illinois and Pennsylvania. I think the Pennsylvania numbers may be some indication of what Ohio looks like right now for him.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 1:30 pm 
Offline
General
User avatar

Joined: Sat May 31, 2008 12:14 am
Posts: 1202
Location: Dallas, Ga
Likes: 36
Liked: 71
Thanks for posting Steadfast.


I wonder what would happen to the numbers if Palin was not considered?

Also, got to like the numbers out of PA and IL. I always thought Huckabee should do well there and OH. Huckabee will be hard to beat if he commands the center of the country.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 1:35 pm 
Offline
General
User avatar

Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2007 5:45 am
Posts: 1175
Likes: 0
Liked: 3
[quote="Steadfast"]Here we go:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com ... mbers.html

[quote]
And the GOP primary numbers...

PPP numbers looking ahead to the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination contest in California, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania find Mitt Romney looking strong in New England and the West and Mike Huckabee with a slight edge in the Midwest.

In the critical early state of New Hampshire Romney continues to hold a dominant polling advantage, with 40% to 13% for Huckabee and 10% each for Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin. If Tim Pawlenty, Mike Pence, Mitch Daniels, or John Thune somehow emerges as the winner in New Hampshire they'll be able to truthfully say they started out with nothing- they poll at 4%, 3%, 1%, and 1% respectively.

If Romney really does run he puts the New Hampshire primary at some risk of being irrelevant. If he continues to post huge leads in the polls there other top contenders could end up just writing it off and focusing their efforts on states like Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida that could have more competitive contests.

Romney has a wide lead with both moderates and conservatives in New Hampshire and the same is true for him in Connecticut where he has 28% to 15% for Huckabee, 14% for Gingrich, and 11% for Palin. He looks to have a strong home court advantage in Massachusetts' neighboring states.

In California and Colorado Romney's leads are much narrower and speak to what might have to be his path to the nomination: breaking even with conservatives and cleaning up with moderates. In California he has 25% to 18% for Palin and 15% for Gingrich and Huckabee. He and Palin are actually tied with conservatives at 24% each. But with moderates Romney leads her by a whooping 30-2 margin, giving him the 7 point overall advantage. It's a similar story in Colorado. Overall there Romney's at 22% with Gingrich and Palin tied at 17% and Huckabee back at 14%. With conservatives there it's basically a three way tie with Romney and Gingrich each at 20% and Palin getting 19%. But Romney gets 27% of moderates with Gingrich and Palin both in single digits and that gives him the overall lead.

In Pennsylvania and Illinois it's Huckabee holding a small lead and the results in Illinois are particularly interesting. There Huckabee's at 18%, Gingrich at 17%, Palin at 14%, and Romney all the way back at 12%. An interesting explanation for Romney's poor showing in Illinois is that Tim Pawlenty (7%) and Mitch Daniels (6%) register higher than they do elsewhere. The two of them are particularly strong with Romney's otherwise strong core of moderate voters, getting a total of 18% of the GOP centrist vote between the two of them. It'll be interesting to see, if they do end up running, if they hurt Romney.

Huckabee's lead is wider in Pennsylvania, where he gets 23% to 16% for Palin and Romney and 15% for Gingrich. We'll total it all up when we're done releasing all 18 of these polls but for now it's Romney 4 Huckabee 2 Gingrich 0 Palin 0.

Full results here


It would seem that Sarah Palin is becoming the female version of Ron Paul for 2012. I think it goes without saying that you can't win anything without the independent/moderate vote.

_________________
______________________Image______________________


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 1:44 pm 
Offline
***** General
User avatar

Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2008 11:48 pm
Posts: 2617
Location: Indiana
Likes: 77
Liked: 183
Here's a discussion from June about PPP in Illinois:

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=22917&hilit=illinois

All top four candidates have dropped because the field is growing.

Romney clearly has lost the most ground...going from 25 (in June) to 12 in this recent poll. And in April he was at 34%...his team must be concerned about this trend.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 1:45 pm 
Offline
***** General
User avatar

Joined: Tue Mar 11, 2008 10:50 pm
Posts: 2363
Location: Iowa
Likes: 51
Liked: 211
I'm definitely not a polling expert but I am very encouraged by these numbers! Huck leading in Pennsylvania and Illinois? And I think that would most likely be Ohio too. I don't think "regional candidate" applies to Mike Huckabee anymore. And while the Western states need a lot of work, he is at least with the other top tier candidates bunched up behind Romney. That is a huge improvement from 2008. (If I remember earlier polling of the Western states is seems like Palin is the one who really dropped.)

And let's just write-off NH. I was hoping Gingrich could at least give Mitt some competition there so Mitt would have to fight in that state and could not put his focus on other states as NH would be a "must win" for him. But, still very early. I find it hard to believe he would have a blow-out in NH. Something will pop-up, like let's say......Romneycare.

_________________
"We fought, we dreamed, that dream is still with us."
Ronald Reagan, 1976


TEAM HUCK IOWA
http://www.facebook.com/TeamHuckIowa


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 1:46 pm 
Offline
***** General
User avatar

Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2008 11:48 pm
Posts: 2617
Location: Indiana
Likes: 77
Liked: 183
Iowans Rock wrote:
I'm definitely not a polling expert but I am very encouraged by these numbers! Huck leading in Pennsylvania and Illinois? And I think that would most likely be Ohio too. I don't think "regional candidate" applies to Mike Huckabee anymore. And while the Western states need a lot of work, he is at least with the other top tier candidates bunched up behind Romney. That is a huge improvement from 2008.

And let's just write-off NH. I was hoping Gingrich could at least give Mitt some competition there so Mitt would have to fight in that state and could not put his focus on other states as NH would be a "must win" for him. But, still very early. I find it hard to believe he would have a blow-out in NH. Something will pop-up, like let's say......Romneycare.


Perhaps the book tour in November to California and Arizona will help with this!


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 2:05 pm 
Offline
General
User avatar

Joined: Sat May 31, 2008 12:14 am
Posts: 1202
Location: Dallas, Ga
Likes: 36
Liked: 71
One thing else to think about is that the wider the field of candidates are , the better Huckabee looks as his base is looking more and more solid. I hope Huckabee is getting ready for the coming attacks.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 3:01 pm 
Offline
***** General

Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 11:21 am
Posts: 2747
Location: Arkansas
Likes: 200
Liked: 653
Very good numbers.

Two interesting facts to consider:

Huckabee campaigned in person for 34 candidates in the 2010 contests. NONE West of Arkansas, but some in Illinois, and Penn. (BTW - 29 won.)

The weaker the Republican "wave," regionally the better Romney is doing (NH in isolation could be thought an exception). That does not bode well for him. The "wave" where it was strongest was due to the energy of heavily engaged conservative voters and radicalized "independents." I would not want to be banking on folks who failed to carry the day in 2010.

_________________
"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 3:32 pm 
Offline
***** General
User avatar

Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2007 1:52 pm
Posts: 4803
Location: Texas
Likes: 90
Liked: 259
Aron has all of these numbers posted at ROS. You may wish to get involved in the discussion over there.

Remember to just ignore Aaron 1 and Illinoisguy though.

http://www.rightosphere.com/home.php

_________________
ConservTexan

http://ilikemikehuckabee2012.blogspot.com/


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 3:34 pm 
Offline
Major

Joined: Sat Sep 26, 2009 9:01 am
Posts: 283
Location: Idaho
Likes: 31
Liked: 34
Pennsylvania and Illinois? Our guy has made some strides...in the President's home state of all places. I just worry about Toomey and CFG battling him back under in Pennsylvania...

_________________
I share Huck's birthday...I was a few years too late though


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 7:12 pm 
Offline
***** General
User avatar

Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 11:31 pm
Posts: 3475
Likes: 0
Liked: 6
Ignore Illinoisguy at the ROS site. He sent me a fake email pretending to be a Huckabee supporter. When I traced it back to him then he lied about it then realized a knew it was him for sure and he wouldn't talk about it.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 7:13 pm 
Offline
***** General
User avatar

Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 11:31 pm
Posts: 3475
Likes: 0
Liked: 6
What is the thread with the Huckabee polling by state?


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 7:31 pm 
Offline
***** General

Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2008 8:45 pm
Posts: 1792
Location: Pennsylvania
Likes: 208
Liked: 275
FiscalConservative wrote:
One thing else to think about is that the wider the field of candidates are , the better Huckabee looks as his base is looking more and more solid. I hope Huckabee is getting ready for the coming attacks.


Agree completely. The candidates who many think will run all draw from a simliar pool of voters, which makes the solid pool of Huck voters that much more of an advantage in a crowded field.

And I like PA becoming a Huck state........time to put that Huck 2012 bumper sticker on my SUV! :D

_________________
Most people believe what they see, the Left see's what it believes.....


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 29 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Jump to:  
cron
POWERED_BY