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PostPosted: Wed Nov 17, 2010 4:43 pm 
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_1117513.pdf

I don't have time to post all the numbers so consider the betan past. Huckabee does well again.

Huckabee/Obama/Not sure 51/41/8
Romney/Obama/Not sure 50/39/11
Gingrich/Obama/Not sure 46/44/11
Palin/Obama/Not sure 47/45/9

I will be on record now stating that Healthcare will be more of an obstacle for Romney than pardons will be for Huckabee. If the Obama administration wishes to face Huckabee more than Romney, look for them to continue to compare the national HC plan to Massachusett's which will make him look weak and allow Daniels and Pawlenty to attack him. Huckabee will get his attacks but I don't think they will stick as much as last time.


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 17, 2010 4:53 pm 
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I think we're in for a catfight between Romney and Gingrich, who fight for the same voters and the same money. That will allow Huckabee to "stay above the fray" and let both of them raise their negatives and ultimately self-destruct. Palin however might be a problem since she'll go after social conservatives, but Huckabee won't have to attack her; their are plenty of others who will inform everyone about Palin's flaws.


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 17, 2010 4:56 pm 
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These are the kind of numbers that get the bookie "investor" class of conservative donors really thinking. They will certainly look to see if they can't elevate someone into the top tier, but it is becoming very evident that Huckabee is the "most electable" candidate mathematically among the current top group.

Most of these folks didn't major in either math or miracles, but they hate to loose.

Especially to Obama.

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 17, 2010 8:41 pm 
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Quote:
I think we're in for a catfight between Romney and Gingrich


Not so sure. Gingrich seems reluctant to hit Romney at all. He actually kinda defended RomneyCare in a CBN interview this week. Romney has the money and nobody wants to attack Romney because the attacks will come right back at them. This could create a bad dynamic where everyone attacks everyone because nobody wants to attack Mitt. Then it becomes Mitt vs. the 1 alternative that emerges.


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 17, 2010 10:38 pm 
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PrinciplesMatter wrote:
Quote:
I think we're in for a catfight between Romney and Gingrich


Not so sure. Gingrich seems reluctant to hit Romney at all. He actually kinda defended RomneyCare in a CBN interview this week. Romney has the money and nobody wants to attack Romney because the attacks will come right back at them. This could create a bad dynamic where everyone attacks everyone because nobody wants to attack Mitt. Then it becomes Mitt vs. the 1 alternative that emerges.


I can certainly see that happening but I don't think it will last. Mitt's personality flaws, which so badly alienated literally EVERY other GOP candidate in 2008, will draw out the attacks especially from the less message disciplined candidates (like Palin or Santorum). You could watch as he progressively got further and further under peoples' skins last time at each debate.

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 17, 2010 11:05 pm 
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Southern Doc wrote:
PrinciplesMatter wrote:
Quote:
I think we're in for a catfight between Romney and Gingrich


Not so sure. Gingrich seems reluctant to hit Romeny at all. He actually kinda defended RomneyCare in a CBN interview this week. Romney has the money and nobody wants to attack Romney because the attacks will come right back at them. This could create a bad dynamic where everyone attacks everyone because nobody wants to attack Mitt. Then it becomes Mitt vs. the 1 alternative that emerges.


I can certainly see that happening but I don't think it will last. Mitt's personality flaws, which so badly alienated literally EVERY other GOP candidate in 2008, will draw out the attacks especially from the less message disciplined candidates (like Palin or Santorum). You could watch as he progressively got further and further under peoples' skins last time at each debate.


With healthcare repeal front and center in the next congress, Romney is going look weak and be an easy target. If everyone would attack at once then it could have the desired affect.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 2:18 am 
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I don't think Mitt will attack this time...he learned his lesson from 2008. If anything, he will have surrogates do the attacks for him so he can still look innocent. I do think you are right, all the other candidates will be afraid to attack Mitt and especially Palin. If you attack her, you are instantly hated by all the Palinista's and that's a pretty big chuck of the electorate that won't vote for the attacker. Everybody wants to stay in her good graces.

I wonder if they will attack Huckabee because Iowa seems more attainable for them to win than NH which Romney has sewn up with double digits. Therefore, to help them in Iowa, they have to bring down the leader, which is Huckabee.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 2:34 am 
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Quote:
I wonder if they will attack Huckabee because Iowa seems more attainable for them to win than NH which Romney has sewn up with double digits. Therefore, to help them in Iowa, they have to bring down the leader, which is Huckabee.


I fear that dynamic. We need to put Iowa out of reach for anyone else. A weakened Romney would open up NH and take pressure off people having to take down Huckabee.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 7:45 am 
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Southern Doc wrote:
These are the kind of numbers that get the bookie "investor" class of conservative donors really thinking. They will certainly look to see if they can't elevate someone into the top tier, but it is becoming very evident that Huckabee is the "most electable" candidate mathematically among the current top group.

Most of these folks didn't major in either math or miracles, but they hate to lose.

Especially to Obama.


Yes, O-Reilly was virtually saying last night that Huckabee can't compete because he can't raise the money, and it takes $150 million to beat Obama. Dick Morris disagreed, because he said that in the Republican primary basically FoxNews will give the Republican candidates the exposure they need, with 70% of Republicans saying they watch FoxNews either nightly or several times a week.

I had to chuckle at the end of the O'Reilly show, when Morris reminded O'Reilly of the bet he had once had that Huckabee would break 10% in the primaries for 2008. O'Reilly lost that bet. :wink: :pompom

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 19, 2010 3:10 am 
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Does anybody think that the comments O'Reilly made and Bret Baier made tonight with the 12/12 interview about Huckabee's problem with fundraising would generate some people to start sending Huckabee money?


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 19, 2010 1:37 pm 
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Isn't this amazing, here is that regional candidate Huckabee leading in another non-South state poll. This one is even in a region that I had pretty much conceded to the opposition, the mountainous north. I love that Romney, Palin, Gingrich split, where they vie for the same soft support, while Huckabee's support is solid and growing. Next thing you know, we may be singing "...California here we come."


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