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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 5:35 pm 
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Tuesday, November 23, 2010

NC looks like it would be competitive again

Barack Obama isn't all that popular in North Carolina...but neither are most of the leading Republican Presidential contenders for 2012. Because of that if the election was held today Obama would be right in contention to win the state again when he comes up for reelection.

Obama's approval rating in the state is 45%, with 51% of voters disapproving. That makes him a lot more popular than Sarah Palin (36/55 favorability spread), a little more popular than Newt Gingrich (34/43), and about the same as Mitt Romney (33/38). The only one of the Republicans who gets significantly better reviews from North Carolina voters than Obama is Mike Huckabee, who 44% in the state have a positive opinion of to just 31% with a negative one.

Huckabee is also the only one of the Republicans who Obama trails in a hypothetical reelection contest. The former Arkansas Governor edges him 48-44. Huckabee does the best job both of unifying Republican voters (87% support from them) and earning crossover support from Democratic voters (winning over 21% of them.)

Beyond Huckabee though Obama does about the same or even better than he did against John McCain against the rest of the Republican contenders. He holds Mitt Romney to a 44-44 draw, has the slightest of edges over Newt Gingrich at 46-45, and leads Sarah Palin by a 48-43 spread.

Obama trails by 4-13 points with independents in all four of the match ups but that's really not bad given that most Democrats in competitive races across the state this year lost those folks by about a 2:1 margin. The bigger problem for Obama might be that he's polling in the low to mid 70s with Democrats against all of the Republicans except for Palin, an indication that he still has some work to do with conservative Democrats between now and 2012.

Still in the big picture these are good numbers for Obama. Some were quick to look at the 2010 results in North Carolina and say Obama would have no chance to win here again in 2012 but the reality is that a huge part of the Republican victories was Democrats staying at home and that's not likely to happen again the next time around. If Republicans can't get a better candidate than Palin, Romney, or Gingrich and the Obama wave voters from 2008 get reenergized he has at least a 50/50 chance of starting a Democratic winning streak at the Presidential level in North Carolina.

Full results here
Posted by Tom Jensen at 3:14 PM

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com ... itive.html

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 5:49 pm 
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Sweet!!

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 6:01 pm 
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Clear Huckabee superiority in a critical battleground state right when the moneymen are looking hard at the available data. :D :D

Palin's position continues to be not just the worst but plain ole "bad." She is not an "unknown" and therefore has almost zero room to "grow." She has to change minds which is very hard to do and especially so for a candidate whose "brand" is her "edge." In an earlier Huck/Palin match up article the comments contained what I thought a very witty barb I think true regarding GOP prospects with Palin at the head of a ticket:


Quote:
Palin 2012

How did the Mayans know?

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 6:05 pm 
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Southern Doc wrote:

Quote:
Palin 2012

How did the Mayans know?

:lol:

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 6:05 pm 
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Southern Doc wrote:
Clear Huckabee superiority in a critical battleground state right when the moneymen are looking hard at the available data. :D :D

Palin's position continues to be not just the worst but plain ole "bad." She is not an "unknown" and therefore has almost zero room to "grow." She has to change minds which is very hard to do and especially so for a candidate whose "brand" is her "edge." In an earlier Huck/Palin match up article the comments contained what I thought a very witty barb I think true regarding GOP prospects with Palin at the head of a ticket:


Quote:
Palin 2012

How did the Mayans know?


I had to laugh at that one.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 6:20 pm 
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This IS sweet - and just for once I wish they'd bullet the appropriate points, instead of burying them in the verbiage:

Favorable/Unfavorable/NET:
Obama
45/51/-6

Romney 33/38/-5
Gingrich 34/43/-9
Palin 36/55/-19 :shock:
Huckabee 44/31/+13

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 6:41 pm 
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The only one of the Republicans who gets significantly better reviews from North Carolina voters than Obama is Mike Huckabee, who 44% in the state have a positive opinion of to just 31% with a negative one.

Huckabee is also the only one of the Republicans who Obama trails in a hypothetical reelection contest. The former Arkansas Governor edges him 48-44. Huckabee does the best job both of unifying Republican voters (87% support from them) and earning crossover support from Democratic voters (winning over 21% of them.)

I am wondering why South Carolina would not be even more favorable for Huckabee. My impression is that SC is a bit more conservative than NC, and I definitely see Huckabee as the most conservative of the four front-runners.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 6:47 pm 
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Results like this have to be exploding some heads in the Huck hater camps. It looks like they may be the minority just as expected.

This quote says it all and points to the only answer......nominate Mike Huckabee.

Quote:
If Republicans can't get a better candidate than Palin, Romney, or Gingrich and the Obama wave voters from 2008 get reenergized he has at least a 50/50 chance of starting a Democratic winning streak at the Presidential level in North Carolina.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 6:49 pm 
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byourCreator wrote:
Quote:
The only one of the Republicans who gets significantly better reviews from North Carolina voters than Obama is Mike Huckabee, who 44% in the state have a positive opinion of to just 31% with a negative one.

Huckabee is also the only one of the Republicans who Obama trails in a hypothetical reelection contest. The former Arkansas Governor edges him 48-44. Huckabee does the best job both of unifying Republican voters (87% support from them) and earning crossover support from Democratic voters (winning over 21% of them.)

I am wondering why South Carolina would not be even more favorable for Huckabee. My impression is that SC is a bit more conservative than NC, and I definitely see Huckabee as the most conservative of the four front-runners.


This is polling for a general election and I think you are thinking of polling results for a primary in SC.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 6:58 pm 
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Iowans Rock wrote:
byourCreator wrote:
Quote:
The only one of the Republicans who gets significantly better reviews from North Carolina voters than Obama is Mike Huckabee, who 44% in the state have a positive opinion of to just 31% with a negative one.

Huckabee is also the only one of the Republicans who Obama trails in a hypothetical reelection contest. The former Arkansas Governor edges him 48-44. Huckabee does the best job both of unifying Republican voters (87% support from them) and earning crossover support from Democratic voters (winning over 21% of them.)

I am wondering why South Carolina would not be even more favorable for Huckabee. My impression is that SC is a bit more conservative than NC, and I definitely see Huckabee as the most conservative of the four front-runners.


This is polling for a general election and I think you are thinking of polling results for a primary in SC.

Oh, you are right. Let's just get on with the primary now and get Huckabee the nomination so he can defeat Obama already. Two years is just too long to wait and there are all these crazy people in the Republican primaries who want the wrong candidate to win; Romney, Palin, Gingrich --- what are they thinking?


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 9:55 pm 
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If this poll says Huckabee would lead by 4 points over Obama, then the reality is he's ahead by more than that. Most likely the poll is weighted to 2008 turnout levels. How else could Huckabee win 21% of Democrats and 87% of Republicans (plus probably leading among Independents) and be ahead by only 4 points? It doesn't compute. They must have a turnout model that has a huge number of Democrats and few Republicans. 2012 turnout won't be a replica of 2008.


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 26, 2010 12:53 pm 
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I have posted this over at ROS. Please add comments:

http://rightosphere.com/blog.php?user=T ... y_id=11100

Quote:
Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2012 General Election Match

PPP North Carolina General Election Match

* Mike Huckabee 48%
* Barack Obama 44%

* Mitt Romney 44%
* Barack Obama 44%

* Barack Obama 46%
* Newt Gingrich 45%

* Barack Obama 48%
* Sarah Palin 43%

Among those who voted for John McCain

* Mike Huckabee 84%
* Barack Obama 6%

* Newt Gingrich 81%
* Barack Obama 7%

* Mitt Romney 78%
* Barack Obama 6%

* Sarah Palin 76%
* Barack Obama 8%

Among those who voted for Barack Obama

* Barack Obama 88%
* Mike Huckabee 8%

* Barack Obama 90%
* Mitt Romney 7%

* Barack Obama 91%
* Newt Gingrich 6%

* Barack Obama 94%
* Sarah Palin 5%

Among Men


* Mike Huckabee 55%
* Barack Obama 36%

* Newt Gingrich 55%
* Barack Obama 38%

* Mitt Romney 52%
* Barack Obama 37%

* Sarah Palin 51%
* Barack Obama 39%

Among Women


* Barack Obama 50%
* Mike Huckabee 41%

* Barack Obama 50%
* Mitt Romney 37%

* Barack Obama 53%
* Newt Gingrich 37%

* Barack Obama 55%
* Sarah Palin 35%


Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

* Mike Huckabee 44% / 31% {+13%}
* Mitt Romney 33% / 38% {-5%}
* Newt Gingrich 34% / 43% {-9%}
* Sarah Palin 36% / 55% {-19%}

Among Conservatives

* Mike Huckabee 62% / 17% {+45%}
* Newt Gingrich 56% / 22% {+34%}
* Sarah Palin 58% / 31% {+27%}
* Mitt Romney 44% / 27% {+17%}

Among Moderates

* Mike Huckabee 33% / 33% {+0%}
* Mitt Romney 26% / 40% {-14%}
* Newt Gingrich 18% / 55% {-37%}
* Sarah Palin 22% / 67% {-45%}

Among Men

* Mike Huckabee 47% / 31% {+16%}
* Newt Gingrich 43% / 41% {+2%}
* Mitt Romney 39% / 39% {+0%}
* Sarah Palin 42% / 50% {-8%}

Among Women

* Mike Huckabee 41% / 31% {+10%}
* Mitt Romney 29% / 38% {-9%}
* Newt Gingrich 26% / 45% {-19%}
* Sarah Palin 30% / 60% {-30%}

PPP surveyed 517 North Carolina voters from November 19
th to 21st. The survey’smargin of error is +/- 4.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 26, 2010 2:29 pm 
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TexasConservative, I just checked out your blog and, You are a woman ?!! All this time, I thought you were a man. I really gotta stop assuming thing before it gets me in trouble.

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 26, 2010 2:40 pm 
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I know the feeling, lelouch. I thought she was a man too, just because the words "Texas conservative" makes me think of a sheriff or something :) But I knew since some time ago she was a woman because I read that on Rightosphere.

For the record, I'm a boy! :)


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 26, 2010 4:32 pm 
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Wendero wrote:
I know the feeling, lelouch. I thought she was a man too, just because the words "Texas conservative" makes me think of a sheriff or something :) But I knew since some time ago she was a woman because I read that on Rightosphere.

For the record, I'm a boy! :)


I've already seen your pic on facebook, so I knew that.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2010 7:22 pm 
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Some additional numbers were released from this NC poll yesterday:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/ ... _11302.pdf

Quote:
Raleigh, N.C. – Even in an eight-candidate field of remote possibilities, Pat McCrory is the choice of his party faithful to repeat his challenge to Bev Perdue in 2012. The race for President in the state, however, is, as most everywhere else, unclear, with Mike Huckabee barely ahead of Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich.

At the top of the ballot, Huckabee gets a quarter of the vote to Palin’s 21%, Gingrich’s 17%, Mitt Romney’s 10%, Ron Paul’s 7%, Tim Pawlenty’s 4%, John Thune’s 2%, and Mitch Daniels’ 1%, with 12% undecided or preferring another candidate. Palin actually leads Huckabee, 27-24, among the 24% share of moderates, with Gingrich and Romney each at 12%, but Huckabee prevails overall because of his 26-20 advantage with the 72% who call themselves conservative. Gingrich is likewise boosted by his 19% with them.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2010 7:32 pm 
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Romney is way down there. It's probably pretty similar to South Carolina. Romney did really poorly there in 2008. If Gingrich and Palin don't run, Huckabee may win the nomination in a rout. We all may be gearing up for a close nomination battle, but this may turn into a blowout. I think if either Palin or Gingrich doesn't run, then Huckabee's the clear favorite. If neither one of them run, it'll get ugly. As for Romney, it's what I've been saying for a while. He doesn't have a chance. The more they learn about Romney, the further he'll sink in the polls.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2010 7:50 pm 
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EricB wrote:
Romney is way down there. It's probably pretty similar to South Carolina. Romney did really poorly there in 2008. If Gingrich and Palin don't run, Huckabee may win the nomination in a rout. We all may be gearing up for a close nomination battle, but this may turn into a blowout. I think if either Palin or Gingrich doesn't run, then Huckabee's the clear favorite. If neither one of them run, it'll get ugly. As for Romney, it's what I've been saying for a while. He doesn't have a chance. The more they learn about Romney, the further he'll sink in the polls.


I believe Romney is on the way down with no chance of recovering. I noticed the other day that in two PPP polls conducted (so it is the same polling company doing both polls) Romney went from 32% in April to 12% in November.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 01, 2010 10:31 pm 
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This poll is really encouraging. Last time around, as a relative unknown Huckabee slowly crept up the polls, the more coverage he got the more people who liked him. He hasn't changed a ton (still as awesome as ever) and if/when he declares, with the coverage he receives as a front runner, I believe the higher he will go up in the polls.

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