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 Post subject: PPP: Florida 2012
PostPosted: Wed Dec 22, 2010 8:11 pm 
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Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Obama posts an early lead in Florida

Add Florida to the list of key swing states where the weakness of the Republican front runners for President in 2012 would allow Barack Obama to win again if the election was today, despite his own less than stellar poll numbers. Obama leads Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, and Sarah Palin by greater margins than his victory over John McCain in the state in 2008, with only Mitt Romney running closer to Obama than McCain did.

Obama's approval rating in the state is just 45%, with 49% of voters disapproving of him. His numbers with Democrats leave something to be desired at just a 69/24 approval spread and Republicans predictably are pretty universal in their disapproval of him at 81%. But his numbers with independents are among his best anywhere in the country at 59% approving and 35% disapproving of him and that puts his overall numbers at least at a respectable level.

Florida voters may not be enamored with Obama but they don't really like the leading Republican contenders either. Sarah Palin is incredibly unpopular at a 36/57 favorability and Newt Gingrich isn't a whole lot better at 36/47. Mike Huckabee's numbers are more respectable at a 41/43 spread and only Mitt Romney has more voters with a positive than negative opinion of him at 43/38.

Romney comes closest to Obama in the hypothetical head to head match ups but still trails 46-44. You might think that with Romney having postive favorability numbers and Obama's approval under water that he would be in the lead. The problem for Romney on that front is that while 31% of Democrats like him, only 20% of them are actually willing to vote for him against Obama. On the other hand pretty much everyone who likes Obama is also committed to voting for him.

What would really help Obama's chances of taking Florida again is if the Republicans nominated Sarah Palin for President. Obama leads her by a stunning 14 point margin, 52-38. The last Democrat to take Florida by such a large margin? Usually you just have to go back to LBJ and Barry Goldwater for those comparisons but for the Sunshine State you actually have to go even further to Harry Truman's election in 1948. Part of Palin's problem is hesitance on the part of Republicans to support her- she gets only 63% of her own party's vote- but her biggest issue is independents where she trails Obama by a whooping 41 points at 67-26. We've had a lot of polls show that Palin would be a disaster for the GOP but this might be the starkest evidence of it yet.

Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich each trail Obama by 5 points, a margin slightly larger than his victory in the state in 2008. It's 49-44 against Huckabee and 47-42 against Gingrich.

Obama's relatively weak approval numbers in Florida make it clear that he could lose the state in 2012 and against Romney he'd start out in something approaching a toss up. Beyond that though if Republicans want to win Florida their candidates either need to really step up their games...or they need to find some fresher, stronger candidates.

Full results here
Posted by Tom Jensen at 10:46 PM
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com ... orida.html


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 Post subject: Re: PPP: Florida 2012
PostPosted: Thu Dec 23, 2010 12:13 pm 
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Perhaps someone from Florida can help me out here. How is it that the Florida electorate just overwhelmingly selected Marco Rubio and then in this poll selects Obama with Romney as next in line?

Obama is very different than Rubio and Romney is much like Charlie Crist while Huckabee is the most like Rubio of any named. Where is the consistency of thinking? To me this seems to be one of the great mysteries of the human mind; to wit, the ability to be completely irrational at times.


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 Post subject: Re: PPP: Florida 2012
PostPosted: Thu Dec 23, 2010 12:39 pm 
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Newsmax just came out with an article on this subject and completely omitted Huckabee!!! Anyone see the article? I can't find my magazine at the moment.

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 Post subject: Re: PPP: Florida 2012
PostPosted: Thu Dec 23, 2010 12:42 pm 
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Just my .02

FL is predominately moderate and democrat. There are very few native floridians left on the east coast. Most are transplants from the NE. The NW panhandle is the only bastion of conservatism left in FL


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 Post subject: Re: PPP: Florida 2012
PostPosted: Fri Dec 24, 2010 3:21 am 
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byourCreator wrote:
Perhaps someone from Florida can help me out here. How is it that the Florida electorate just overwhelmingly selected Marco Rubio and then in this poll selects Obama with Romney as next in line?

Obama is very different than Rubio and Romney is much like Charlie Crist while Huckabee is the most like Rubio of any named. Where is the consistency of thinking? To me this seems to be one of the great mysteries of the human mind; to wit, the ability to be completely irrational at times.

to be irrational in large numbers. We humans seem to be smart individually, but stupid in groups. I only hope that Huck living in Florida and remaining politically active down there can do nothing but help Floridians realize that he and Marco are cut from the same mold.

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 Post subject: Re: PPP: Florida 2012
PostPosted: Fri Dec 24, 2010 8:36 am 
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Chadballer wrote:
byourCreator wrote:
Perhaps someone from Florida can help me out here. How is it that the Florida electorate just overwhelmingly selected Marco Rubio and then in this poll selects Obama with Romney as next in line?

Obama is very different than Rubio and Romney is much like Charlie Crist while Huckabee is the most like Rubio of any named. Where is the consistency of thinking? To me this seems to be one of the great mysteries of the human mind; to wit, the ability to be completely irrational at times.

to be irrational in large numbers. We humans seem to be smart individually, but stupid in groups. I only hope that Huck living in Florida and remaining politically active down there can do nothing but help Floridians realize that he and Marco are cut from the same mold.


We humans seem to be smart individually, but stupid in groups. :roll: :wink: :P How true. But maybe part of the problem is when the wise are silent.

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 Post subject: Re: PPP: Florida 2012
PostPosted: Fri Dec 24, 2010 10:33 am 
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FiscalConservative wrote:
Just my .02

FL is predominately moderate and democrat. There are very few native floridians left on the east coast. Most are transplants from the NE. The NW panhandle is the only bastion of conservatism left in FL


But how does that explain the dominant Marco Rubio win? I can understand both Rubio and Huckabee not doing well in the NE, and Obama and Romney polling high, but how is it that Rubio wins big in FL and a couple of months later Obama and Romney poll at the top?

As to group irrationality and herd mentality, I understand your point, but these polls like voting are taken individually.

My hope is that come election time, Rubio will campaign for Huckabee and they would be a formidable duo in the state. Romney is well entrenched there but if Huckabee can beat him in FL he can also beat Obama there.

But, to my thinking the mysteries of these polls still remains unanswered.


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 Post subject: Re: PPP: Florida 2012
PostPosted: Fri Dec 24, 2010 11:33 am 
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I was surprised about Huckabee's negatives in Florida. I am sure he is working on a strategy for this. In the future, the best place to go to get poll numbers in a nice formatted setting, is Argo Journal. Aron from ROS/Race42012 created this site. He does a great job of printing out the data. http://argojournal.blogspot.com/

Quote:
Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2012 Presidential Survey
PPP (D) Florida 2012 Presidential Survey

* Barack Obama 46%
* Mitt Romney 44%

* Barack Obama 47%
* Newt Gingrich 42%

* Barack Obama 49%
* Mike Huckabee 44%

* Barack Obama 48%
* Marco Rubio 40%

* Barack Obama 52%
* Sarah Palin 38%

Among Independents

* Barack Obama 52%
* Mitt Romney 28%

* Barack Obama 56%
* Newt Gingrich 22%

* Barack Obama 60%
* Mike Huckabee 24%

* Barack Obama 67%
* Sarah Palin 26%

* Barack Obama 65%
* Marco Rubio 21%

Among Conservatives

* Mike Huckabee 80%
* Barack Obama 11%

* Newt Gingrich 77%
* Barack Obama 8%

* Mitt Romney 78%
* Barack Obama 10%

* Marco Rubio 73%
* Barack Obama 12%

* Sarah Palin 70%
* Barack Obama 17%

Among Moderates

* Barack Obama 62%
* Mitt Romney 28%

* Barack Obama 69%
* Newt Gingrich 26%

* Barack Obama 69%
* Mike Huckabee 25%

* Barack Obama 66%
* Marco Rubio 21%

* Barack Obama 70%
* Sarah Palin 19%

Among Men

* Barack Obama 46%
* Mitt Romney 45%

* Barack Obama 49%
* Newt Gingrich 45%

* Barack Obama 51%
* Mike Huckabee 46%

* Barack Obama 49%
* Marco Rubio 39%

* Barack Obama 52%
* Sarah Palin 40%

Among Women

* Barack Obama 46%
* Mitt Romney 42%

* Barack Obama 45%
* Newt Gingrich 40%

* Barack Obama 47%
* Mike Huckabee 41%

* Barack Obama 48%
* Marco Rubio 40%

* Barack Obama 52%
* Sarah Palin 36%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

* Mitt Romney 43% / 38% {+5%}
* Marco Rubio 43% / 42% {+1%}
* Mike Huckabee 41% / 43% {-2%}
* Newt Gingrich 36% / 47% {-11%}
* Sarah Palin 36% / 57% {-21%}

Among Republicans

* Marco Rubio 68% / 20% {+48%}
* Mike Huckabee 67% / 22% {+45%}
* Newt Gingrich 61% / 24% {+37%}
* Mitt Romney 58% / 26% {+32%}
* Sarah Palin 62% / 34% {+28%}

Among Independents

* Mitt Romney 36% / 51% {-15%}
* Marco Rubio 28% / 52% {-24%}
* Newt Gingrich 24% / 60% {-36%}
* Sarah Palin 30% / 66% {-36%}
* Mike Huckabee 25% / 62% {-37%}

Among Conservatives

* Marco Rubio 74% / 14% {+60%}
* Mike Huckabee 70% / 15% {+55%}
* Newt Gingrich 64% / 15% {+49%}
* Mitt Romney 64% / 21% {+43%}
* Sarah Palin 70% / 29% {+41%}

Among Moderates

* Mitt Romney 31% / 43% {-12%}
* Marco Rubio 27% / 52% {-25%}
* Mike Huckabee 23% / 57% {-34%}
* Newt Gingrich 19% / 62% {-43%}
* Sarah Palin 17% / 71% {-54%}

Among Men

* Marco Rubio 45% / 43% {+2%}
* Mitt Romney 44% / 43% {+1%}
* Mike Huckabee 42% / 50% {-8%}
* Sarah Palin 42% / 54% {-12%}
* Newt Gingrich 39% / 53% {-14%}

Among Women

* Mitt Romney 42% / 32% {+10%}
* Mike Huckabee 40% / 35% {+5%}
* Marco Rubio 40% / 41% {-1%}
* Newt Gingrich 32% / 40% {-8%}
* Sarah Palin 31% / 60% {-29%}

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 Post subject: Re: PPP: Florida 2012
PostPosted: Fri Dec 24, 2010 12:37 pm 
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byourCreator wrote:
FiscalConservative wrote:
Just my .02

FL is predominately moderate and democrat. There are very few native floridians left on the east coast. Most are transplants from the NE. The NW panhandle is the only bastion of conservatism left in FL


But how does that explain the dominant Marco Rubio win? I can understand both Rubio and Huckabee not doing well in the NE, and Obama and Romney polling high, but how is it that Rubio wins big in FL and a couple of months later Obama and Romney poll at the top?

As to group irrationality and herd mentality, I understand your point, but these polls like voting are taken individually.

My hope is that come election time, Rubio will campaign for Huckabee and they would be a formidable duo in the state. Romney is well entrenched there but if Huckabee can beat him in FL he can also beat Obama there.

But, to my thinking the mysteries of these polls still remains unanswered.




I live in Ga now, but I spent the 1970-1984 in the FL. It was more "country" back then and I'd have to be paid ALOT of money to move back. I guess the theory is that "snow birds" liked it so much they have stayed permenately. This is why Romney does so well. Some may be "native" floridians but will still alot of family in NY/NJ. FL is really a transplanted yankee state south of Orlando and which is where most of the states population resides.

Floridians are more familiar with Rubio and so they like him or have grown to like him. Rubio is also catholic (per his website but this was a bit of a controversy) and helps him relate to many floridians. Also, Fl has a high population of Jews and Jewish people are a bit aprehensive with Baptists based on spiritual boundaries.

Quote:
My hope is that come election time, Rubio will campaign for Huckabee and they would be a formidable duo in the state. Romney is well entrenched there but if Huckabee can beat him in FL he can also beat Obama there.


Rubio would help, but at this point I have my doubts. Huckabee has to do really do well in the nothern and less populated part of the state. I would be estatic with 2nd place by less than 5pts and a tie would be considered a win.


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 Post subject: Re: PPP: Florida 2012
PostPosted: Fri Dec 24, 2010 5:14 pm 
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Looking at the numbers in the poll above which includes Rubio, I am not nearly as concerned. Rubio does worse than Huckabee in most categories and overall and yet he won quite handily. It would appear that there is just something fishy about these Florida polls right now.

Mike is doing pretty well in comparison to how he did in 2008 and this is the first poll that I remember seeing from Florida where he is competitive. I think he is making progress there.


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 Post subject: Re: PPP: Florida 2012
PostPosted: Sat Dec 25, 2010 1:55 am 
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Two answers to the question of Huckabee in the PPP poll and Rubio in the elections.

1. Obviously, the immediate answer is to distinction a poll (consisting of about 500 people) vs an actual election where all voters who are going to determine the results actually vote. Simply cannot underestimate the difference.

2. The debates have not yet begun. Just wait until Fl. residents hear Mike Huckabee speak to them (not about or at them) and all the wonderful things he has to say, versus Palin's nonsense, Romney's boringness and Gingrich's nerdiness.


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