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PostPosted: Mon Dec 27, 2010 12:51 pm 
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I'm on my iPod and don't know how to post the link using it. Go to www.race42012.com to see poll results. :D

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 27, 2010 1:03 pm 
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Bonus after Christmas "Christmas Present"

Quote:
Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2012 GOP Primary

PPP (D) Florida 2012 GOP Primary

* Mike Huckabee 23% {15%} [15%] (21%)
* Mitt Romney 21% {28%} [31%] (52%)
* Newt Gingrich 18% {15%} [23%]
* Sarah Palin 13% {22%} [23%] (18%)
* Ron Paul 8%
* Tim Pawlenty 4% {4%}
* Mitch Daniels 2% {1%}
* John Thune 1% {1%}
* Someone else/Undecided 10% {12%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

* Mike Huckabee 67% / 20% {+47%}
* Mitt Romney 61% / 22% {+39%}
* Newt Gingrich 59% / 24% {+35%}
* Sarah Palin 61% / 32% {+29%}

Among Conservatives

* Mike Huckabee 75% / 14% {+61%}
* Sarah Palin 73% / 22% {+51%}
* Newt Gingrich 66% / 18% {+48%}
* Mitt Romney 67% / 20% {+47%}

Among Moderates

* Mitt Romney 54% / 23% {+31%}
* Mike Huckabee 51% / 31% {+20%}
* Newt Gingrich 42% / 34% {+8%}
* Sarah Palin 34% / 56% {-22%}

http://argojournal.blogspot.com/2010/12 ... 2-gop.html

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 27, 2010 1:13 pm 
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Wow! Rightosphere, someone post this, NOW!


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 27, 2010 1:20 pm 
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Outstanding! Someone quick find the Florida numbers from before...wasn't Romney ahead significantly?


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 27, 2010 1:25 pm 
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Steadfast wrote:
Outstanding! Someone quick find the Florida numbers from before...wasn't Romney ahead significantly?



Aron is really good at letting us know how they did on previous polls. I've moved to my laptop now so I can copy and paste. Here is a quote from Aron's post at Race42012 and the Argo Journal:
Quote:
Survey of 400 Republican primary voters was conducted December 17-20, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Political ideology: 70% Conservative; 25% Moderate; 5% Liberal. Results from the poll conducted October 30-31, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 16-18, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 5-8, 2010 are in parentheses.


http://race42012.com/2010/12/27/poll-watch-ppp-d-florida-2012-gop-primary/

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 27, 2010 1:26 pm 
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Yes, in the first poll (with only Huckabee, Palin and Romney) Romney had 52 %, to Palin's 23 % and Huckabee's 21 %

Huckabee's been at 15 % two polls in a row, coming in fourth or sharing third place with Gingrich. Florida is waking up :)


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 27, 2010 1:27 pm 
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Just posted on PPP site:

ROMNEY SINKS IN FLORIDA

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com ... orida.html


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 27, 2010 1:28 pm 
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Steadfast, the previous poll numbers are on this chart. Romney went from 52 down to 21.

Wendero-this is posted at race42012-it does not need to be on ROS as people are commenting on race42012. Aron won't be posting the numbers on ROS anymore, they will be on race42012.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 27, 2010 1:29 pm 
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Oh okay. I kind of think ROS lost a lot when Aron left, what happened? :(

Also, someone (I would do it myself but don't know how) should update the wikipedia page with statewide polling for the republican primaries in 2012.

Time to do a delegate count? Huckabee now has more states than Romney! :)


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 27, 2010 1:38 pm 
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Steadfast wrote:
Just posted on PPP site:

ROMNEY SINKS IN FLORIDA

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com ... orida.html


I suspected that was what was going on when they posted their blog last week headlined "GOP Electorate Trending Conservative"
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/12/gop-electorate-trending-conservative.html that said:
Quote:
These numbers make it clear how severe Romney's problems with conservatives are- there just aren't that many moderate to liberal GOP voters left to prop him back up. There's been a thought that a centrist could win the nomination in 2012 if the conservatives cannibalize each other but I don't think moderates have a big enough piece of the pie to get someone nominated even if there are a glut of conservative candidates. The ideological composition of the GOP at this point is such that it's probably just flat impossible for someone perceived as a moderate to be their nominee. Here's the exit poll data from 2008 and our most recent polls in these states:


Romney has been doing the best against Obama in some of the states; but then he doesn't do as well in the GOP race. Palin has won several of the GOP races; but then doesn't do well at all in the head to head races against Obama. Huckabee has been doing pretty well in both categories - the head to head against Obama and the GOP race. :D

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 27, 2010 1:43 pm 
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Well, before we get too excited, looks like Huckabee did not do as well in the NC poll data from the same time period:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/goptoplines.pdf

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 27, 2010 2:17 pm 
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ConservTexan wrote:
Well, before we get too excited, looks like Huckabee did not do as well in the NC poll data from the same time period:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/goptoplines.pdf


Don't be down too much. If you take margin of error into consideration; there is a four way tie in NC. Although this poll is Mike's worst showing yet in NC. scratch

Quote:
PPP (D) North Carolina 2012 GOP Primary

* Newt Gingrich 21% [17%] (23%)
* Sarah Palin 21% [21%] (19%) {30%} [27%] (27%)
* Mitt Romney 18% [10%] (14%) {27%} [25%] (25%)
* Mike Huckabee 18% [25%] (19%) {30%} [30%] (33%)
* Ron Paul 7% [7%]
* Tim Pawlenty 3% [4%] (4%)
* John Thune 1% [2%] (0%)
* Mitch Daniels 1% [1%] (2%)
* Someone else/Undecided 12% [12%] (16%)


http://race42012.com/2010/12/27/poll-watch-ppp-d-north-carolina-2012-gop-primary-2/

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 27, 2010 2:32 pm 
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Okay, so I did the math. If every state is a winner-takes-all in 2012 and every state has the same number of delegates that it had in 2008 (unrealistic assumptions, I know, but bear with me).

Huckabee leads the race!

Mike Huckabee 605 delegates
Mitt Romney 501 delegates
Sarah Palin 418 delegates
Newt Gingrich 211 delegates
Tim Pawlenty 41 delegates

Based on the poll numbers on wikipedia. I have taken into account that North Carolina is now tied between Palin and Gingrich (when a state is tied, delegates are split). Arkansas is included in Huckabee's number since I think we can take for granted he will win there (Tennessee however is not included).

Granted there are several states in the northeast that haven't yet been polled, but not even there we can't take for granted Romney will win. Palin did after all win Maine in the last poll.


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 27, 2010 4:43 pm 
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I am so pleasantly surprised. This prooves my asertion Huckabee's advantage is with a field of many candidates. For the longest time we have been looking at polls with only 4 possibilities. Now with the election closer, we are seeing poll with 7 or 9 candidates included in the polls he still polls the same or better.

However, Romney's support is a mile wide but only an inch deep and goes elsewhere when there are more than just a few candidates.


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 27, 2010 6:53 pm 
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Now this Florida poll makes more sense. Rubio won big in Florida just a couple of months ago and so Huckabee should lead in Florida because he is the most like Rubio.

The PPP interpretation of why Romney has dropped so dramatically is clearly not well thought out. They surmise that he was so high about a year ago because he was considered the only “anti-Palin” candidate, and with several more acceptable candidates included now he has to share the anti-Palin base. They are totaling missing what their own data is telling them and interpreting everything in terms of Palin just like all the media seems to do. That is just nonsense about Romney being the anti-Palin candidate. The truth is they share a great deal of the same pool (the talk-radio crowd) and Huckabee does not.

Perhaps it doesn’t occur to them that both Romney and Palin have fallen to their lowest levels while Gingrich has stayed about the same but that Huckabee has put in his best showing yet. The couple of additional persons they added to the polls have taken down both Palin and Romney.

My guess is that Romney has fallen primary because his connection with mandated healthcare has finally become better known during this last several months and the national discussions regarding mandated healthcare. I think Palin has fallen because she herself has become better known during these last several months. The fact that she resigned her post in Alaska to become a “pop star” of sorts and has attacked just about everybody recently including name-calling and such have just made her style and character more obvious to the general public while probably at the same time endearing her to others, the result, however, being a net loss.

My takeaway from this is that Huckabee has not only held his support but has added to his support at the expense of both Romney and Palin. What is especially positive about this is that the more accurately people come to know Huckabee the more inclined they are to vote for him. In contrast, it would appear that the more one knows about both Palin and Romney, the less inclined they are to support either.


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