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PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 8:50 am 
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Presidential Primary: Huckabee, Romney leading the pack in Iowa

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney are the leading candidates for the Republican presidential primary in Iowa.

That, according to a new poll of Iowa Republicans conducted by the GOP firm Neighborhood Research.

Mr. Huckabee received the support of 24 percent of Republicans saying they are “very likely” or “definite” that they will participate in the 2012 caucuses. Mr. Romney trailed Mr. Huckabee with 19 percent support.



More here:

http://www.thestatecolumn.com/blog/2011 ... k-in-iowa/


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 9:52 am 
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Politico posted poll details:

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM182_110110_iowa.html

I had to chuckle at the analysis of Romney having the most motivated voter!


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 11:55 am 
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I posted the data on my website in case anyone wants to link to it or post it on facebook:

http://ilikemikehuckabee2012.blogspot.c ... pping.html

I think you will like the pictures I used :)

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 12:16 pm 
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Here is the direct link for Aron's post at The Argo Journal:
http://argojournal.blogspot.com/2011/01/poll-watch-neighborhood-research-r-iowa.html

Interesting info from Aron's blog (emphasis mine):
Quote:
Inside the numbers:

When counting second choice votes, Huckabee led Romney 36-28 (35-28 with definites) with Palin at 22 percent (26 percent with definites) and Gingrich at 19 percent (17 percent with definites). Pawlenty had 7 percent, Paul 6 percent, Bachmann 5 percent, Pence and Thune 2 percent and Barbour, Santorum and Cain at 1 percent.

Counting third choice votes also, Huckabee led Romney 41-32 with 27 for Palin, 26 for Gingrich, 9 for Pawlenty, 8 for Paul and Bachmann, 3 for Pence, Barbour and Thune, 2 for Santorum and 1 for Cain. With definite voters, Huckabee was up 40-32 with 30 for Palin, 23 for Gingrich, 10 for Pawlenty, 7 for Bachmann, 6 for Paul and 4 for Pence.

Sarah Palin had the highest name ID at 100 percent followed by Mike Huckabee at 99 percent, Newt Gingrich at 98 percent and Mitt Romney at 97 percent. Ron Paul had 89 percent. From there, name ID dropped off significantly. Tim Pawlenty’s name ID was 64 percent, followed by Michele Bachmann at 60 percent, Rick Santorum at 58 percent, Haley Barbour at 52 percent, John Thune at 43 percent, Mike Pence at 38 percent, Herman Cain at 20 percent and Gary Johnson at 19 percent.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 12:19 pm 
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Were politic
Steadfast wrote:
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Presidential Primary: Huckabee, Romney leading the pack in Iowa

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney are the leading candidates for the Republican presidential primary in Iowa.

That, according to a new poll of Iowa Republicans conducted by the GOP firm Neighborhood Research.

Mr. Huckabee received the support of 24 percent of Republicans saying they are “very likely” or “definite” that they will participate in the 2012 caucuses. Mr. Romney trailed Mr. Huckabee with 19 percent support.



Were they looking at the same data as Aron :?
More here:

http://www.thestatecolumn.com/blog/2011 ... k-in-iowa/

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 12:23 pm 
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I also posted this at Rightspeak: http://www.rightspeak.net/2011/01/hucka ... pping.html

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 12:33 pm 
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Well, this information is interesting:

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

* Mike Huckabee 59% / 6% {+53%}
* Newt Gingrich 44% / 9% {+35%}
* Sarah Palin 44% / 19% {+25%}
* Mitt Romney 38% / 13% {+25%}
* Michele Bachmann 24% / 2% {+22%}
* Ron Paul 25% / 9% {+16%}
* Tim Pawlenty 16% / 2% {+14%}
* Haley Barbour 12% / 2% {+10%}
* Rick Santorum 10% / 2% {+8%}
* John Thune 7% / 1% {+6%}
* Mike Pence 6% / 0% {+6%}
* Herman Cain 4% / 0% {+4%}
* Gary Johnson 1% / 0% {+1%}

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 12:55 pm 
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Iowa is the most important state poll at this time, and one of the few that really count for much. As others have noted, this is not 2008 but 2012 and the situation is not the same. It did not matter nearly as much that Giuliani was up in the polls in Iowa at this time four years ago, or that McCain rose and then fell, and Thompson rose and then fell, and Romney rose and then fell after him. This is a different situation and either Huckabee or Romney will win the nomination, and Huckabee has a strong lead in Iowa, the first state to vote.

Romney appears to be fading everywhere, and Palin is loosing strength as well.

It is a good time to be a Huckabee supporter.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 12:56 pm 
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IMO it looks like Politico was trying to find the best way to spin it so that it doesn't look quite so bad for Romney. They are choosing to highlight Romney being able to convert a higher percentage of his favorables to votes. :roll: I wonder if he was the one who paid for the polling.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 1:15 pm 
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Yes, GrannyT, I noticed the spin was starting. Converting the data, and making the story about Romney and/or Palin. By the way, who is that guy who keeps topping the polls in Iowa and elsewhere :roll: Can't remember his name scratch

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 2:05 pm 
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If any other establishment type candidate gains any sort of traction in Iowa Romney's numbers will flee. I think Romney's percentage of support is his ceiling as Huckabee's numbers of support in Iowa right now is the lowest he will go. Because he is leading in all categories of 2nd, 3rd, or 4th choice he will gain votes as campaigning begins and candidates drop out or don't run.......or disappoint.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 5:09 pm 
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PPP just put this out on twitter:

Quote:
# Romney and Ron Paul tied for 4th among Iowa Republicans who consider themselves Tea Party members at 9% less than 20 seconds ago via web

# Romney's first in IA among Republicans who oppose goals of the Tea Party...which may sum up the whole problem with his campaign 3 minutes ago via web

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 5:45 pm 
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This poll is right in line with what I and most others here and at other informed places have been saying for probably 9 months or longer. I've never seen how Palin can do better than 3rd in Iowa, and it just baffles me at the amount of so-called experts on Fox News that keep saying she would be the frontrunner in Iowa due to her appeal to social conservatives. I honestly think there are more people at CNN and MSNBC who understand Republican politics than at Fox.

Also I've been thinking for about a month now that Newt could be the real surprise of this primary season. I really think he could place 3rd in Iowa and 3rd in NH and significantly elevate his stature among Republicans and Conservatives. I don't think he would be a VP nominee, but I do think he can come out of the process with something just as good going forward. On the flipside Palin is at a tremendous risk of underperforming. A 4th place finish in Iowa would instantly remove her from the race, and even if she went on to NH she would do so poorly that she would have no choice but to get out the next day. I'm not saying it will happen, but if someone gave me money right now to place on who finishes 3rd, I'd have to pick Newt 3rd just because of what I think is going to happen in the debates there.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 6:30 pm 
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WalterCan wrote:
Also I've been thinking for about a month now that Newt could be the real surprise of this primary season. I really think he could place 3rd in Iowa and 3rd in NH and significantly elevate his stature among Republicans and Conservatives. I don't think he would be a VP nominee, but I do think he can come out of the process with something just as good going forward. On the flipside Palin is at a tremendous risk of underperforming. A 4th place finish in Iowa would instantly remove her from the race, and even if she went on to NH she would do so poorly that she would have no choice but to get out the next day. I'm not saying it will happen, but if someone gave me money right now to place on who finishes 3rd, I'd have to pick Newt 3rd just because of what I think is going to happen in the debates there.



This is nothing I wouldn't expect and I completely agree and to add that if National security becomes an issue then that will elevate Newt even more, but Newt will surprise people. I was his constituent and he talks a very good moderate tone.

I also predict that Palin will see the tea leaves and opt out instantaly elevating Huckabee into NH. Newt will insignificantly challenge Romney in NH over RomneyCare, allowing Huckabee to come in a strong 3rd. After the beating that Romney takes from Tea Party people, Pawlenty, and Huckabee (Newt can play nice because other "establishment types" will be his attack dogs) Romney will limp into NV and get beat by Newt or whomever the Tea Party people back.

SC can set the stage for Huckabee by winning convincably. I do not think Romney will be a significant challenge.

I will say it here first, this nomination is Huckabee's to lose. :like


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 10, 2011 6:32 pm 
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Not that I think intrade is a good indicator this far out, it is interesting to note that Palin is down to 10.3. Huckabee rising slightly. Romney holding steady.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 2:01 am 
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I think it's a forgone conclusion that if Mike decides to run, then Iowa is something he should win without any effort. I wouldn't completely ignore Iowa; but he would need to make himself stronger in the other early primary states.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 12:57 pm 
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Here is the way the Daily Fix posted the information on their site, remember Chris Cillizza is one of those Washington Insiders....

Quote:
Fixbits

A poll from New Jersey GOP pollster Rick Shaftan shows Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee leading the way among Iowa caucus-goers.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix ... .html#more


Seriously? scratch I can understand if they write it up Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney leading the way....

But to write it with Mitt's name first is just ridiculous. Of course, those Washington Insiders really want Mitt to be the nominee, so they are going to push the meme that Romney is the one :roll:

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 1:28 pm 
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ConservTexan wrote:
Here is the way the Daily Fix posted the information on their site, remember Chris Cillizza is one of those Washington Insiders....

Quote:
Fixbits

A poll from New Jersey GOP pollster Rick Shaftan shows Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee leading the way among Iowa caucus-goers.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix ... .html#more


Seriously? scratch I can understand if they write it up Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney leading the way....

But to write it with Mitt's name first is just ridiculous. Of course, those Washington Insiders really want Mitt to be the nominee, so they are going to push the meme that Romney is the one :roll:


I don't know whether to use :wall-yellow or :floor

Has anyone heard of the Neighborhood Research polling company :?: I'm of the opinion that it must be run by Romney supporters. Why else would they have spun the poll results the way they did :?:

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 1:35 pm 
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tdavisjr wrote:
I think it's a forgone conclusion that if Mike decides to run, then Iowa is something he should win without any effort. I wouldn't completely ignore Iowa; but he would need to make himself stronger in the other early primary states.


You have to be very careful in that. There is no better way to alienate voters than to take them for granted. There will be a lot of focus on Iowa and Mike will need to spend enough time to address the perception.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 4:04 pm 
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kdscott wrote:
tdavisjr wrote:
I think it's a forgone conclusion that if Mike decides to run, then Iowa is something he should win without any effort. I wouldn't completely ignore Iowa; but he would need to make himself stronger in the other early primary states.


You have to be very careful in that. There is no better way to alienate voters than to take them for granted. There will be a lot of focus on Iowa and Mike will need to spend enough time to address the perception.


I think Reagan did that in 1980 because he thought his radio popularity in Iowa was enough to carry him and didn't pay attention to the state. He ended up losing narrowly to Bush in the caucuses and then learned from his mistake of ignoring grassroots and rebounded.

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