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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 1:28 pm 
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Okaaaaaaayyyy............

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Eccentric billionaire, real estate mogul and reality television star Donald Trump is now tied for the lead in the Republican presidential primary race, according to a CNN poll released today.

That finding caps off a stunning two weeks that have seen Trump rising in the GOP field nationally and polling near the front of the pack in crucial early primary states. And while the primaries are still a long way off, and only a few candidates are officially in the field, it raises the question of just how viable a Trump candidacy would be.

In the poll of self-identified Republican adults, Trump and Huckabee tied for first at 19%, followed by Palin at 12%, and Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney at 11% each. Ron Paul placed sixth with 7%, and was trailed by Michele Bachmann (5%), Mitch Daniels (3%), Tim Pawlenty (2%), and Rick Santorum (2%).

Trump posted the biggest gain by far in the latest poll. One month ago, CNN pegged his support at 10%, good for fifth place. But since then, Trump has gone on a media blitz, appearing on cable news shows and repeatedly flogging old conspiracies on the long-since settled issue of President Obama's citizenship.

This is the second poll in as many weeks to show Trump giving the establishment candidates a run for their money. Last week, an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed Trump running in second place at 17%, just behind frontrunner Romney's 21%.

Romney fell furthest in the CNN survey since March, dropping seven points from his second place finish one month ago.

The CNN poll was conducted April 9-10 among 355 Republican adults nationwide. It has a margin of error of 5%.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/04/cnn-poll-donald-trump-ties-huckabee-for-lead-in-gop-primary.php

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 1:55 pm 
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Iowans Rock wrote:
Okaaaaaaayyyy............

Quote:
Eccentric billionaire, real estate mogul and reality television star Donald Trump is now tied for the lead in the Republican presidential primary race, according to a CNN poll released today.

That finding caps off a stunning two weeks that have seen Trump rising in the GOP field nationally and polling near the front of the pack in crucial early primary states. And while the primaries are still a long way off, and only a few candidates are officially in the field, it raises the question of just how viable a Trump candidacy would be.

In the poll of self-identified Republican adults, Trump and Huckabee tied for first at 19%, followed by Palin at 12%, and Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney at 11% each. Ron Paul placed sixth with 7%, and was trailed by Michele Bachmann (5%), Mitch Daniels (3%), Tim Pawlenty (2%), and Rick Santorum (2%).

Trump posted the biggest gain by far in the latest poll. One month ago, CNN pegged his support at 10%, good for fifth place. But since then, Trump has gone on a media blitz, appearing on cable news shows and repeatedly flogging old conspiracies on the long-since settled issue of President Obama's citizenship.

This is the second poll in as many weeks to show Trump giving the establishment candidates a run for their money. Last week, an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed Trump running in second place at 17%, just behind frontrunner Romney's 21%.

Romney fell furthest in the CNN survey since March, dropping seven points from his second place finish one month ago.

The CNN poll was conducted April 9-10 among 355 Republican adults nationwide. It has a margin of error of 5%.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/04/cnn-poll-donald-trump-ties-huckabee-for-lead-in-gop-primary.php


IMO Trump has caused Gingrich to have second thoughts. Gingrich used to poll in the top four but has been bumped to fifth due mostly to the Trump rise. Check out the latest Real Clear Politics averages using the last 6 national polls at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

Trump is really moving up and nipping close at Romney's heels. Current RCP averages:
Huckabee 18.0%
Romney 16.5%
Trump 15.7%
Palin 12.5%
Gingrich 10.7%
Paul 6.6%
Bachmann 4.3%
Pawlenty 3.8%
Daniels 3.2%
Santorum 2.2%

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 2:01 pm 
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Go Trump!!! He is knocking out the main contenders but Huckabee still leads. This seems good.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 2:34 pm 
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Quote:
Trump posted the biggest gain by far in the latest poll.


Quote:
Romney fell furthest in the CNN survey since March, dropping seven points from his second place finish one month ago.


That seems like the reasonable response - one "businessman" replacing another "businessman" in the public eye (no matter what you think of their respective businesses.)

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 2:41 pm 
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Come on over for the fun:

http://race42012.com/2011/04/12/poll-wa ... ent-806845

April 12, 2011

Poll Watch: CNN/Opinion Research 2012 Republican Nomination Survey
Wow… Just wow…

CNN/Opinion Research 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

•Mike Huckabee 19% [19%] {21%} (21%) [14%] {24%} (17%)
:floor
•Donald Trump 19% [10%]
•Sarah Palin 12% [12%] {19%} (14%) [18%] {15%} (18%)
•Newt Gingrich 11% [14%] {10%} (12%) [15%] {14%} (8%)
•Mitt Romney 11% [18%] {18%} (20%) [21%] {20%} (22%)
•Ron Paul 7% [8%] {7%} (7%) [10%] {8%} (8%)
•Michele Bachmann 5%
•Mitch Daniels 3% [3%] {3%}
•Tim Pawlenty 2% [3%] {3%} (3%) [3%] {2%} (5%)
•Rick Santorum 2% [3%] {1%} (2%) [2%] {3%} (5%)
•Haley Barbour 0% [1%] {3%} (3%) [3%] {1%} (1%)
•Someone else (vol.) 3% [4%] {5%} (7%) [6%] {5%} (8%)
•None/No one (vol.) 4% [3%] {4%} (4%) [0%] {5%} (2%)
•No opinion 1% [2%] {2%} (6%) [4%] {1%} (3%)

Among Republicans

•Mike Huckabee 24% [18%] {24%} (21%) [17%]

•Donald Trump 15% [8%]
•Newt Gingrich 14% [15%] {9%} (14%) [15%]
•Sarah Palin 14% [14%] {17%} (16%) [21%]
•Mitt Romney 9% [18%] {18%} (21%) [20%]
•Michele Bachmann 8%
•Ron Paul 5% [7%] {7%} (4%) [7%]
•Mitch Daniels 2% [3%] {4%}
•Tim Pawlenty 2% [4%] {4%} (3%) [2%]
•Rick Santorum 1% [3%] {1%} (3%) [3%]
•Haley Barbour 0% [2%] {6%} (3%) [3%]
•Someone else (vol.) 1% [4%] {4%} (5%)
•None/No one (vol.) 4% [4%] {3%} (2%)
•No opinion 1% [2%] {1%} (6%)

Among Independents

•Donald Trump 24% [13%]
•Mitt Romney 13% [17%] {19%} (19%) [23%]
•Mike Huckabee 13% [22%] {18%} (20%) [9%]
•Sarah Palin 11% [7%] {22%} (11%) [12%]
•Ron Paul 10% [11%] {8%} (11%) [14%]
•Newt Gingrich 9% [14%] {13%} (9%) [14%]
•Mitch Daniels 4% [4%] {2%}
•Tim Pawlenty 3% [2%] {3%} (3%) [5%]
•Michele Bachmann 2%
•Rick Santorum 2% [2%] {1%} (1%) [2%]
•Haley Barbour 0% [1%] {1%} (2%) [2%]
•Someone else (vol.) 5% [4%] {5%} (10%)
•None/No one (vol.) 5% [1%] {4%} (7%)
•No opinion 1% [2%] {3%} (5%)

Among Men

•Mike Huckabee 18% [21%] {18%} (21%) [11%]
•Donald Trump 16% [9%]
•Sarah Palin 12% [8%] {12%} (12%) [16%]
•Newt Gingrich 11% [16%] {12%} (13%) [17%]
•Mitt Romney 11% [15%] {20%} (23%) [23%]
•Ron Paul 9% [10%] {10%} (9%) [13%]
•Michele Bachmann 5%
•Mitch Daniels 4% [4%] {5%}
•Tim Pawlenty 3% [4%] {5%} (4%) [3%]
•Rick Santorum 2% [2%] {1%} (2%) [2%]
•Haley Barbour 0% [1%] {4%} (3%) [4%]

Among Women

•Donald Trump 23% [10%]
•Mike Huckabee 19% [17%] {24%} (20%) [18%]
•Newt Gingrich 12% [12%] {9%} (9%) [13%]
•Sarah Palin 12% [16%] {26%} (17%) [20%]
•Mitt Romney 10% [20%] {17%} (17%) [19%]
•Michele Bachmann 5%
•Ron Paul 5% [7%] {5%} (4%) [6%]
•Rick Santorum 1% [3%] {1%} (3%) [2%]
•Tim Pawlenty 1% [3%] {2%} (2%) [4%]
•Mitch Daniels 0% [2%] {1%}
•Haley Barbour 0% [2%] {3%} (3%) [1%]

Who would be your second choice?

•Mike Huckabee 16% [18%] {14%}

•Mitt Romney 14% [15%] {18%}
•Sarah Palin 13% [12%] {19%}
•Donald Trump 13% [6%]
•Newt Gingrich 12% [11%] {8%}
•Ron Paul 9% [10%] {8%}
•Mitch Daniels 4% [4%] {4%}
•Tim Pawlenty 3% [4%] {5%}
•Michele Bachmann 3%
•Haley Barbour 2% [1%] {1%}
•Rick Santorum 0% [3%] {3%}
•Someone else (vol.) 3% [2%] {5%}
•None/ No one (vol.) 4% [9%] {7%}
•No opinion 2% [3%] {4%}

Regardless of who you support, please tell me whether you would or would not like to see each of the following people run for the Republican nomination for
President:

Mike Huckabee

•Would like to see run 72%

•Would not like to see run 26%

Mitt Romney

•Would like to see run 66%
•Would not like to see run 28%

Donald Trump

•Would like to see run 56%
•Would not like to see run 43%

Sarah Palin

•Would like to see run 53%
•Would not like to see run 47%

Newt Gingrich

•Would like to see run 51%
•Would not like to see run 45%

Survey of 385 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents, was conducted April 9-10, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 11-13, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 21-23, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 27-30, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 6-10, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 9-11, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.

http://race42012.com/2011/04/12/poll-wa ... ent-806845

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 2:42 pm 
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FiscalConservative wrote:
Go Trump!!! He is knocking out the main contenders but Huckabee still leads. This seems good.



Exactly!

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 2:50 pm 
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Things that go up fast usually come crashing down. Trump has undergone no scrutiny. I expect to see his numbers drop once the honeymoon phase is over.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 2:59 pm 
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Trump should be encouraged to run. I only see that he helps Huckabee. Most Huckabee voters wouldn't consider voting for Trump since Trump is not pro-life. He's a moderate Republican, so naturally his base of support comes from people who would support Romney.

It's the Fred Thompson effect, only it's coming from the moderate side of the party instead of the conservative side of the party. Just my 2 cents.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 3:02 pm 
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In order to get a really BIG flash you need a very thin pan.

This is the most significant finding from the poll IMHO:

Quote:
Mike Huckabee

•Would like to see run 72%
•Would not like to see run 26%

Mitt Romney

•Would like to see run 66%
•Would not like to see run 28%

Donald Trump

•Would like to see run 56%
•Would not like to see run 43%

Sarah Palin

•Would like to see run 53%
•Would not like to see run 47%

Newt Gingrich

•Would like to see run 51%
•Would not like to see run 45%


The ones getting the green light are viable (though this poll also shows that folks seem willing to dump Romney at the first opportunity)

The ones with the red light are just not going to make it in the face of such strong disinterest in them running.

Huck contines to be the leader and he continues to benefit by being NOT thought the leader.

More than a third of the voters continue to want him as the nominee first or second and only a quarter are disinterested in his running.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 3:05 pm 
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Hilarious! Is Romney now a second or third tier candidate? That will be the debate if this continues. I know we're jumping the gun, but if this turned into a Trump/Huckabee horse race I think Mike could win and it would just be downright fun to watch. BTW, I knew Trump would cripple Romney... I just didn't think this much.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 5:23 pm 
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One thing Trump and Romney have in common is their millions of dollars in personal wealth that could be sunk into a campaign. Guess Mitt is not the only one now who has money to play with...


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 5:55 pm 
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EricB wrote:
Trump should be encouraged to run. I only see that he helps Huckabee. Most Huckabee voters wouldn't consider voting for Trump since Trump is not pro-life. He's a moderate Republican, so naturally his base of support comes from people who would support Romney.

FYI, Trump has changed his mind on this. He says he is pro-life now.

Here's the video:



We need a "pullin' a Romney" emoticon. ;)

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 7:41 pm 
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I've heard at various places around the web that Trump is this cycle's Fred Thompson. I disagree, Trump is 10 times more well known than Thompson ever was. His visibility in the debate will not be overshadowed if he's a lazy campaigner or not.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 13, 2011 2:16 am 
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Iowans Rock wrote:
Okaaaaaaayyyy............

Quote:
But since then, Trump has gone on a media blitz, appearing on cable news shows and repeatedly flogging old conspiracies on the long-since settled issue of President Obama's citizenship.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/04/cnn-poll-donald-trump-ties-huckabee-for-lead-in-gop-primary.php


I'm glad CNN has decided for the rest of us that Obama's birth certificate issue has been long settled. Talk about biased writing!

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 13, 2011 8:02 am 
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O'Reily said last night the Hawaii has Obama's birth cirtificate but its illegal to release it. Anybody else catch that?


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 13, 2011 12:49 pm 
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FiscalConservative wrote:
O'Reily said last night the Hawaii has Obama's birth cirtificate but its illegal to release it. Anybody else catch that?


If Obama gives his consent to release it there shouldn't be any problem then. Yet he doesn't do so, hmmm..................

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