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PostPosted: Wed May 25, 2011 8:58 pm 
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Insider Advantage National Republican Primary

•Romney – 16.2% (13)
•Bachmann – 11.8% (6)
•Palin – 11.0% (12)
•Cain – 10.9% (-)
•Pawlenty – 7.4% (6)
•Gingrich – 6.4% (8)
•Paul – 5.0% (-)
•Someone else – 5.3%
•Undecided – 25.5% (23)


http://www.wsbtv.com/news/28008623/detail.html


This is the first poll that I know of polling the race since Trump, Huckabee, and Daniels declined to run. So much for Romney running away with things. What stands out to me is how strongly Bachmann and Cain are polling. Once Palin officially decides not to run, her supporters will probably go to Bachmann or Cain.



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PostPosted: Wed May 25, 2011 9:02 pm 
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Romney has all the funding, so he is the most likely to advance from here on. To me the odd thing is that "Someone else" is only getting 5.3%. I would have expected that number to be higher with such a weak field.


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PostPosted: Wed May 25, 2011 9:06 pm 
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Actually, now that I think about it, the results of this poll don't surprise me with how high Michele Bachmann is. She's a pretty well-known figure nationally. Romney, Palin, and Bachmann are well-known, so it makes sense that they are the top 3 in this poll since it's so early and polls this early are mostly name recognition. What's important to look for are trends.

Hardly anyone has heard of Herman Cain, yet he's polling at 11%? That's pretty good. I wouldn't consider him a "third tier" candidate. It's a wide open field. Not good for Gingrich that he's dropped support despite tons of new voters being available with Trump and Huckabee withdrawing from the field. Not good for him at all. Pawlenty isn't doing all that great either, but his name ID is still quite low. I'm sure more people known Pawlenty than Cain, yet Cain is polling higher. Keep an eye on Cain.


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PostPosted: Wed May 25, 2011 9:17 pm 
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I have a feeling that the voters for Cain, Pawlenty, Bachman, and Palin are pretty similar.

The unfortunate thing could be that if all four of them are in the race, that could help Romney since he doesn't appear to have too much competition when it comes to "establishment" candidates.

Newt shot himself in the foot. Daniels decided not to run. Pawlenty is sort-of establishment, but probably not enough to draw too many votes away from Romney.

There's been talk of Giuliani possibly running. If he does, he'll likely siphon votes away from Romney. Though I don't know how much.


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PostPosted: Wed May 25, 2011 9:19 pm 
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I hope Guiliani joins the race. He'll siphon off the few pro-choice Republicans away from Romney or Huntsman. He doesn't have a chance at winning though.


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