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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 3:06 pm 
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http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/election_2012_republican_presidential_primary
Election 2012: Republican Presidential Primary
National Poll: Gingrich 35%, Romney 28%, Santorum 16%, Paul 10%


Tuesday, January 24, 2012

After his game-changing win in South Carolina, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich continues to ride his surge to the front of the pack among likely Republican primary voters nationwide. He now leads Mitt Romney by seven points.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters shows Gingrich with 35% of the vote, representing an eight-point increase in support from last week. Former Massachusetts Governor Romney now draws 28%. Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum’s support is little changed at 16%, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul picks up 10%.

Just two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while nine percent (9%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

A week ago, it was Romney 30%, Gingrich 27%, Santorum 15% and Paul 13%. Texas Governor Rick Perry who has since dropped out of the race and endorsed Gingrich earned four percent (4%) in that survey.

Support for Gingrich has jumped a total of 19 points in two surveys since early January, while Romney's support has held steady in that same period. Gingrich's highest level of national support to date, however, came in late November when he captured 38% of the vote after receiving less than 15% in prior surveys. This came following businessman Herman Cain's decision to quit the race as conservative Republicans looked for an alternative to the more moderate Romney.It is worth noting that 41% of GOP voters nationwide are certain of their vote at this time, but 50% could still change their mind between now and their primary. Santorum’s supporters are the most likely to say they could still change their minds at some point.

Romney held a 22-point lead over Gingrich in Florida two weeks ago, but new Rasmussen Reports polling released Monday shows the former speaker with 41% support now among likely GOP primary voters in the Sunshine State with Romney in second at 32%. The Florida Primary is on January 31.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of GOP voters nationwide now believe Gingrich would be the strongest opponent against President Obama in the general election, while 37% say that of Romney. This represents a big shift from last week, when 43% viewed Romney as the strongest Obama opponent and 29% said the same of Gingrich. Sixty-two percent (62%) consider Paul the weakest general election opponent to Obama.

Last week, 70%, regardless of whom they support, said Romney would ultimately be the party’s nominee. Now just 51% share that view, with 32% who think Gingrich will be the eventual nominee, up from 13% in the previous survey.

Among Republican primary voters nationwide, 35% think Romney is the GOP candidate who would do a better job managing the economy, but almost as many (32%) feel Gingrich would do the better job. When it comes to national security and defense, Gingrich is the clear leader: 51% think he would do a better job versus 18% who say the same of Romney. As for which candidate is best in terms of social issues, 28% prefer Gingrich, 25% Santorum and 23% Romney.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 5:27 pm 
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It's really odd that the National polls and the Florida polls are going in opposite directions. Romney must be saturating Florida in ads. Anyone in Florida have a first-hand view? It's really strange since Florida is supposed to be representative of the nation as a whole.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 5:45 pm 
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EricB wrote:
It's really odd that the National polls and the Florida polls are going in opposite directions. Romney must be saturating Florida in ads. Anyone in Florida have a first-hand view? It's really strange since Florida is supposed to be representative of the nation as a whole.


The Florida debate was also likely seen by far more folks in Florida then nationally (percentage wise). That could be another factor. There is also a trend in election polling where dramatic movement can happen in the last week because "undecideds/weak decideds" really start to pay attention in the last week (regardless of the media attention to that point which has usually been at saturation levels for weeks). These voters can go "as a herd" by a major development (like when the 6% still undecided in the 2000 race went 5 to 1 for Gore due to the Bush youth DUI in Maine story. Newt was helped by this in aspect in SC as they broke heavy his way in response to the Jaun Williams/John King slap down. That may be a tough act to follow or a "magic trick" (Huck's analysis of it) that loses its charms or secrets over time.

Generally the late group just goes with whatever the loudest meme of the moment is. If they are equally loud they usually split their votes. If it's deafening they don't even bother to vote sometimes.

In short - National polls are always trailing indicators.

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