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NBC/WSJ Nat Poll: Newt-37 Mitt-28 Sant-18 & Obama-55 Newt-37
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Author:  cschande [ Thu Jan 26, 2012 9:01 pm ]
Post subject:  NBC/WSJ Nat Poll: Newt-37 Mitt-28 Sant-18 & Obama-55 Newt-37

Newt's still up nationally here, too, but performs the worst against Obama, losing to him by 18 points. Santorum's also not doing so hot against the president, losing to him by a 15 point margin, and Romney's down by 6. Granted, this is a poll of registered voters and I don't know anything about the D/R/I breakdown. My guess is Mitt's pretty even with the president, which would bump Santorum up to a 9-point deficit and put Gingrich at a 12-point deficit.

Still, like so many others, this poll highlights Newt's electability problems against Obama in the general (not to mention his problems with indies, women, and people who think having "high personal standards" matters in a president). I know none of us liked the electability argument when it was used against Huck last time around, but at least then we could rebut it by pointing to Huck's high favorability ratings. With Newt...not so much. ... ails-obama

NBC/WSJ poll: Gingrich leads Romney, but badly trails Obama

Newt Gingrich leads Mitt Romney among Republicans, but he is the weakest of the Republican candidates tested against President Obama, according to an NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday evening.

Gingrich leads Romney 37 percent to 28 percent nationally among registered Republicans likely to vote in the primaries; Rick Santorum is in third with 18 percent, and Ron Paul is fourth with 12 percent.

Gingrich has built its advantage by consolidating the heart and soul of the Republican party: very conservative voters, the South and the Tea Party.

Though Gingrich is the preferred candidate of GOP primary voters, though, he performs the worst of all Republican candidates tested against Obama, including Santorum.

"Gingrich is Goldwater," said Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. "In the general election, Gingrich not only takes down his ship, he takes down the whole flotilla."

Gingrich weakest against Obama
Romney fares best against the president, trailing Obama him by six points among registered voters, 49 percent to 43 percent. That’s a four-point improvement for the president from a month ago.

Obama, however, beats Gingrich by a whopping 18 points, 55-37 percent, expanding the president’s 11-point lead a month ago.

Santorum also loses to Obama, but by a narrower margin, 53-38 percent, than Gingrich.

“More than his mojo, he’s getting back the middle of the electorate,” Hart said. But Hart warns, whether it’s the Republican race or the uptick in Obama’s ratings and standing, “I look at these results, and they have all the permanence of skywriting -- looks bold, but disappears in seconds.”

Obama, however, is still below 40 percent approval with white voters, and McInturff points out that number and the direction of the country still would indicate, "The incumbent president is going to have a difficult reelection. Many of these are still problematic numbers -- as improved as they are."

Gingrich’s problems – women, independents, ‘personal standards’

Gingrich particularly struggles with women and independents. Women say they would vote for Obama over Gingrich by a wide 69-21 percent gap, far wider than the 54-38 percent difference by which Obama beats Romney.

With independents, Gingrich gets just 28 percent against Obama, who wins with 52 percent. By contrast, Obama narrowly edges Romney with independents, 44 percent to 36 percent.

Asked if the candidate has “high personal standards that set the proper tone for the country,” Romney gets a 67 percent positive score, Gingrich checks in at 32 percent.

Issues of character for Gingrich haven’t “been put to rest,” Hart said. “It may have been a great debate point last week, but there is still uncertainty among all voters.”

Author:  karrboy84 [ Fri Jan 27, 2012 1:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: NBC/WSJ Nat Poll: Newt-37 Mitt-28 Sant-18 & Obama-55 New

I had seen this over at Race and was excited because santorum is at 18 nationally?! Assuming the attacks against newt keep coming, and they will, Santorum may still have a shot at being the anti-mitt vote. Assuming that newt and santorum are splitting the same crowd, if newt dropped, Rick would rise. We could have a 3-way race around 28 pts a piece before long (with paul and undecided getting an even 8/8 split).

Author:  WalterCan [ Fri Jan 27, 2012 4:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: NBC/WSJ Nat Poll: Newt-37 Mitt-28 Sant-18 & Obama-55 New

I agree with Southern Doc that the national polls are a lagging indicator so after Florida (if not before) I'd expect the national polls to shift toward Romney.

However the fact that Newt is still up that much shows just how weak Romney is as a frontrunner.

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