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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 11:49 pm 
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New poll out of FL from Insider Advantage


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2 ... L_0122.pdf


Gingrich: 34%
Romney: 26%
Paul: 13%
Santorum: 11%



The poll is from Sunday January 22nd and has 557 Likely Voters.
First poll after the South Carolina results.

So much for a Romney lead... :D



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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 11:56 pm 
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That's about what I thought it would be. What has got to be even more troubling for Romney is that late deciders have been breaking toward his opponents which means this could swell up to close to what SC was. I think Romney has to keep any Florida loss to within 5 points or he is in serious trouble.

Hey Karl Rove, do you still think Florida is "vastly" different than SC :lol:


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 12:00 am 
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I would also note that PPP is coming out with a poll soon as well (I think tonight or tomorrow night), and they seem to have been the most accurate so far in the primaries.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 12:02 am 
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Between the first 4 states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida, New Hampshire is the outlier of the group. A win by Gingrich in Florida should make him the frontrunner.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 12:24 am 
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EricB

Check out the internals - I'm confident that the overall methodogy accounted for it, but there are some squirrel like internals. For example: Romney with 18-29 year olds - .0% scratch well that aint right.

And I'll also beat this dead horse again: Newt's beating Santorum overall by 23 points but that drops to 13 points with women. That's still the group that is clinging to Santorum. Newt can keep playing to strength with the appeals that work with male voters, but it looks like pretty soon that pond is gonna be fished out (if it hasn't alrady happened with Santorum males) and he'll have to bring back nice uncle Newt if he wants to peel off any of he remainder.

Newt shows a net pro male gender gap of nine points 39/30
Romney shows a net pro female gender gap of 7 points 21/28

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 12:30 am 
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Doc,

There's a big big difference in running into a gender gap when you're running against Mr. Cleancut and Wholesome looking RS whose wife looks like she just came back from doing a commercial for Betty Crocker, AND conversely running against Obama :D



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 1:04 am 
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WalterCan wrote:
Doc,

There's a big big difference in running into a gender gap when you're running against Mr. Cleancut and Wholesome looking RS whose wife looks like she just came back from doing a commercial for Betty Crocker, AND conversely running against Obama :D


Well for a Newt win in the general you'd better hope so since everytime in the last three elections Republicans failed to close it they lost or only won as a plurality candidate like Bush in 2000 by a razor thin edge.

•56%: Women who voted for Barack Obama
•43%: Women who voted for John McCain

•51%: Women who voted for John Kerry in 2004
•48%: Women who voted for George W. Bush in 2004

•54%: Women who voted for Al Gore in 2000
•43%: Women who voted for George W. Bush in 2000

That 5% (from 43% of women to 48% of women) is the difference between a governing majority and defeat.

The Gap matters folks. The wins in 2010 were not due to a surge of angry white men but a 7% shift in female voters from 2008. Polling shows they drift back toward Obama everytime we have a throw down in Washington. A win without them would require a shift of Hispanics to the GOP or a depressed turnout of African-American Obama voters this time.

I frankly do not "think" Rick Santorum is a good "gap closing" candidate with women and I don't really know how he'd play in reagards to flipping or at least not antagonizing African-American voters provoking them to higher turnout rates. But I've got a pretty good idea from past and present data that it will require something of Newt that is not his strength to shrink the gender gap or pacify African-American voters.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 1:20 am 
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Maybe I should be give Floridians more conservative love. Romney was up 15pts just 6 days ago per PPP.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 9:59 am 
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The Gap matters folks. The wins in 2010 were not due to a surge of angry white men but a 7% shift in female voters from 2008. Polling shows they drift back toward Obama everytime we have a throw down in Washington. A win without them would require a shift of Hispanics to the GOP or a depressed turnout of African-American Obama voters this time.


Agreed. And it matters most in the battleground states. Obama already has 14 fully staffed campaign offices in NC, the most in the history of the state. He may open 3-4 more. We don't have 14 major cities that he could target. Folks, regardless of who we support in the primary, our main objective is who can best defeat Obama. We have to be realistic about what we're facing. The county chairs in NC are very concerned about the nominee and what that will do to the down ticket in the state. Pulling just a few women voters or African American voters in city like Charlotte, pulls the entire state and possibly the entire election. The turnout for Obama will not be a problem with this kind of organization. We have to have a Republican who can energize the base and pull a few women/Reagan Democrats in the large cities to win. Now I would argue that the best person to energize the base is Santorum while others would argue for Newt. But the nominee has to be able to do that in places like Charlotte to win.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 10:22 am 
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Romney had a 22 point advantage over Gingrich. Now he is behind Gingrich

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... an_primary

Gingrich 41
Romney 32
Santorum 11
Paul 8

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 10:42 am 
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GREAT NEWS!!! Thank you for posting.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 10:47 am 
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Thanks for another great poll post EricB!


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 11:15 am 
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I'd encourage people to read the article linked to above. The Florida primary is anybodies ball game.

Quote:
One-in-three (32%) say they still could change their minds before they vote in the January 31 primary. Another nine percent (9%) have no initial preference yet. Fifty-nine percent (59%) are already certain of their vote, including 73% of Romney supporters and 62% of Gingrich voters.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 11:57 am 
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ConservTexan, saw that earlier too and thanks for posting it! :D

GrannyT wrote:
I'd encourage people to read the article linked to above. The Florida primary is anybodies ball game.


Yes, and I encourage the people who did read it to re-read it again too. Apparently the main point of it has been missed. Here's what I thought stood out to me:

Quote:
Throughout the GOP race, Romney has always benefited from the perception that he was the strongest general election candidate in the field. However, among Florida voters at the moment, that is no longer the case. Forty-two percent (42%) now believe Gingrich would be the strongest candidate against Obama, while 39% say the same of Romney. At the other extreme, 64% see Ron Paul as the weakest potential candidate against Obama.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 12:12 pm 
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WalterCan wrote:
Doc,

There's a big big difference in running into a gender gap when you're running against Mr. Cleancut and Wholesome looking RS whose wife looks like she just came back from doing a commercial for Betty Crocker, AND conversely running against Obama :D


Obama, whose wife (at least when she's smiling) also looks like she just came back from a Betty Crocker commercial. I know none of us here are fans of the guy's policies, but, in my opinion at least, to the largely unengaged voter Barack and Michelle give off much more personal warmth than Newt and Callista. I don't see that gender gap changing much in the general based on the "which couple is more personally appealing?" factor alone.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 2:48 pm 
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cschande wrote:
WalterCan wrote:
Doc,

There's a big big difference in running into a gender gap when you're running against Mr. Cleancut and Wholesome looking RS whose wife looks like she just came back from doing a commercial for Betty Crocker, AND conversely running against Obama :D


Obama, whose wife (at least when she's smiling) also looks like she just came back from a Betty Crocker commercial. I know none of us here are fans of the guy's policies, but, in my opinion at least, to the largely unengaged voter Barack and Michelle give off much more personal warmth than Newt and Callista. I don't see that gender gap changing much in the general based on the "which couple is more personally appealing?" factor alone.


Virtually all of my swing voting friends who don't pay very close attention to politics are a confirmation of that. None of the Republican candidates are terribly likable in the ordinary-guy-way that Obama is. It's going to be a really tough election no matter who the candidate is.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 4:59 pm 
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/florida/

"PPP surveyed 921 likely Republican primary voters on January 22nd and 23rd."

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 5:14 pm 
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Just glad that Romney is falling behind. We do not want his RINO policies and lack of defense for life.

Santorum up slightly. Paul keeps his base.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 5:14 pm 
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Was this pre or post Monday's debate?

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 5:24 pm 
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GAVoter4Huck wrote:
Was this pre or post Monday's debate?
It was conducted on Sunday and Monday so would not include any impact from the debate last night. We'll need to wait for the next set of polls to see what, if any, impact it had.

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