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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 5:25 pm 
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GAVoter4Huck wrote:
Yeah, I'm a little questionable about this poll too. I just can't see Romney's answer with 'self-deportation' and also what his tax records revealed actually giving him a boost.

And with the following anti-Romney ad that the Democrats have started to run in Florida, gives me even further doubt about the poll.



That Democrat attack ad sounds pretty much like what this guy's been saying:

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"You have to live to in a world of Swiss bank accounts and Cayman Island accounts and automatic $20 million a year income for no work to have a fantasy this far from reality."

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 7:55 pm 
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Polls seem to be are all over the map right now. CNN just came out with a poll showing Romney with a 2 point advantage as well. I looked back at the SC polls, and 3 days prior to the election there were polls that had Romney ahead by 6 so who knows what is going on right now. I still want to see Rasmussen and PPP in the next couple of days to try and gauge the trends.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 12:35 am 
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The Insider Advantage poll also has Romney up by 8 in Florida. It looks like voters have changed their mind again.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 12:39 am 
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EricB wrote:
The Insider Advantage poll also has Romney up by 8 in Florida. It looks like voters have changed their mind again.



34 has turned into Newt's ceiling in FL apparently, and Romney has siphoned votes away from Santorum and Paul.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 3:21 am 
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It is really difficult to get a read on what might be happening in Florida. I suspect Newt is still ahead, but that could be shifting. Romney and his surrogates appear to have been successful in the short-term about making the election more about Newt. I saw some surveys where Romney's unfavorables are going up due to his going so negative on Newt.

This reminds me of a corporate strategy that used to be legal (and still done although it is suppose to be illegal). It's called dumping. If you're a big company, and a small company tries to compete with you in a certain product category what you do is sell your products at a loss until you drive the smaller company out of business. Then once you've eliminated the competition you sell your product at an even higher price than it was before.

The Romney strategy (which is nothing new) is to drive up Newt's negatives to the point of getting him out of the race even at the cost of his own favorability rating. Then the belief is once you've eliminated your competition you can go back and get your own popularity up again.

If there has been a shift in Florida then the debate tonight is key for Newt to turn that around.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 11:22 am 
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Another poll showing Romney with a lead in Florida now. The poll was conducted on 1/25/12:
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/pol ... in-florida

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 11:36 am 
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I'm starting to get concerned that Romney is going to win this thing. Makes my stomach feel sick. Wish we had a vomit icon. :(


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 11:43 am 
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conservativevoter wrote:
I'm starting to get concerned that Romney is going to win this thing. Makes my stomach feel sick. Wish we had a vomit icon. :(
That thought makes me sick too and we do have a vomit emoticon :barf

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 11:53 am 
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FirstCoastTerp wrote:
conservativevoter wrote:
I'm starting to get concerned that Romney is going to win this thing. Makes my stomach feel sick. Wish we had a vomit icon. :(
That thought makes me sick too and we do have a vomit emoticon :barf



Thanks . . . :barf


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 12:16 pm 
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There is still the debate tonight. Hope Newt can knock it out of the ball park. I guess all Romney's millions can buy just so much negative campaigning that people who are gullible are influenced by it all. I am glad that SC didn't fall prey to that type of campaigning.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 1:23 pm 
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The national numbers don't seem to be moving in Romney's direction, but the numbers in Florida do. It's probably the advertising.

I think Romney wins Florida unless Newt knocks it out of the park in the debate tonight. Florida is just the beginning though. After Florida is Nevada. Romney probably wins Nevada, but maybe not and it'll probably be close. In 2008, 25% of Nevada caucus goers were Mormon. They voted 95% for Romney, and they probably will this time around too. That's not the whole story though. Gingrich has the passionate supporters on his side (so does Santorum), and since it's a caucus that works to his advantage.

After Nevada, there is Minnesota, Missouri, and Colorado. Gingrich probably wins Minnesota and Colorado since they are caucuses. Organization doesn't win caucuses, although it's a factor. Passionate supporters (see Paul, Ron) win caucuses. Missouri also has a primary that day, but Newt isn't on the ballot there. It's a state that he would win easily if he were on the ballot. He might win it anyways with a write-in effort. I wouldn't be surprised if that happened (were he still competitive nationally at that time).

Then, after that on February 28 it's Michigan and Arizona. Romney wins Michigan, but Arizona is a tossup. People won't pay much attention to Michigan, but they will Arizona.

Then it's the Washington caucuses. There's a lot of Mormons in east Washington, but Huckabee did reasonably well there in 2008. That one is a tossup.

Then, it's Super Tuesday. If it's still a very close race nationally, then it might go something like this:
Alaska conventions - Gingrich easily wins
Georgia primary - Gingrich's home state
Idaho caucuses - Romney due to the Mormons
Massachusetts primary - Romney wins
North Dakota caucuses - Gingrich easily wins
Ohio primary - tossup
Oklahoma primary - Gingrich
Tennessee primary - Gingrich
Vermont primary - Romney
Wyoming caucuses - Gingrich
Virginia primary - should be a strong state for Gingrich but he's not on the ballot. Probably a write-in effort makes it a tossup.


After Super Tuesday in March it's Mississippi, Kansas, Alabama, Missouri, Illinois, Louisiana, and Hawaii. Most of those are more conservative states. Then, it's Texas voting in early April.

This battle could go on a while.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 1:31 pm 
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The Gallup tracking poll nationally has Obama ahead of Romney by 2 points and Obama ahead of Gingrich by 2 points as well. So much for electability.

The economy is going to be THE issue this fall. Gingrich could run on the successes of the 90's economy, the last time we really had a good economy (according to perceptions). Personally, I think either candidate could beat Obama, but it'll all come down to how the economy is doing this fall.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 1:39 pm 
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Probably a write-in effort makes it a tossup.


Write-ins aren't allowed in the VA primary.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 1:49 pm 
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brownkb wrote:
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Probably a write-in effort makes it a tossup.


Write-ins aren't allowed in the VA primary.


Hopefully Virginians will vote the only not-Romney choice on our ballot rather than stay home and hand it to him.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 1:58 pm 
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nrobyar wrote:
There is still the debate tonight. Hope Newt can knock it out of the ball park. I guess all Romney's millions can buy just so much negative campaigning that people who are gullible are influenced by it all. I am glad that SC didn't fall prey to that type of campaigning.


I suppose that the rapid rise and fall of a host of candidates shows that gullibility in the one area in which America has shown inself in surplus of late.

I think we sometimes confuse the meaning of "democracy."

Democracy is not the rule of the wise because the majority defines wisdom.

It is the right of the many to rule regardless of their wisdom.

Which is why the Founders distrusted it and set us up as a democratic Republic of checks and balances which especially relied upon slowing things down to gaurd against the fickle nature of men and the exploitation of men by demagogues.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 2:08 pm 
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Missouri also has a primary that day, but Newt isn't on the ballot there. It's a state that he would win easily if he were on the ballot. He might win it anyways with a write-in effort. I wouldn't be surprised if that happened (were he still competitive nationally at that time).



Santorum should consider camping in MO after Florida especially if it's looking like Romney is starting to role up victories in the "two man race" of Romney v Gingrich. It will give him the chance to show (or not show) that he too can beat Romney one on one (plus Paul) and is perhaps a better vessel to carry the Anti-Romney fervor to victory.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 4:54 pm 
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Southern Doc wrote:
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Missouri also has a primary that day, but Newt isn't on the ballot there. It's a state that he would win easily if he were on the ballot. He might win it anyways with a write-in effort. I wouldn't be surprised if that happened (were he still competitive nationally at that time).



Santorum should consider camping in MO after Florida especially if it's looking like Romney is starting to role up victories in the "two man race" of Romney v Gingrich. It will give him the chance to show (or not show) that he too can beat Romney one on one (plus Paul) and is perhaps a better vessel to carry the Anti-Romney fervor to victory.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 5:11 pm 
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Im not sure what I want anymore. I want Santorum to win, but I dont know how that can happen. He cant be the anti-mitt as long as newt is in the race. But Newt cant beat mitt with santorum taking 8-15% of the vote. Now Santorum has left FL which is a good call since it is winner take all, but if newt wins the santorum really is replaced for the anti-newt spot and if romney wins it might be too much for anyone to overcome. ugh. Where is Huck or Daniels or Jeb?!


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 5:26 pm 
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Thanks for the rundown, Eric! Was wondering the order of what was ahead.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 5:29 pm 
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karrboy84 wrote:
Im not sure what I want anymore. I want Santorum to win, but I dont know how that can happen. He cant be the anti-mitt as long as newt is in the race. But Newt cant beat mitt with santorum taking 8-15% of the vote. Now Santorum has left FL which is a good call since it is winner take all, but if newt wins the santorum really is replaced for the anti-newt spot and if romney wins it might be too much for anyone to overcome. ugh. Where is Huck or Daniels or Jeb?!


Actually Santorum is still in the state campaigning but he made the mistake of suggesting that he may not be there when the votes are cast on Tuesday. Now he's being "hannitied" (origin 2008 Huck campaign Florida: verb. - to intentionally harm an opponents campaign by falsely announcing they have quit). [not saying that's you at all karrboy as this thing has already gone viral so who knows what version of the facts you got].

You can't give'em the easy ones Rick. Hang in their though I'd really like someone to vote FOR in the Arkansas primary.

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