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PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2012 6:43 pm 
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Southern Doc wrote:
4Huckabee wrote:
[
Do you have a source for your claim?


I'd say it's a pretty minor point and hardly worth the trouble. 15 vs 18 districts in a contest where the main "game changer" is going to be the actual vote tally at the end of the night anyway. A twenty point win will have far more effect then perhaps not being able to gather in a fraction of won delegates. If any given candidate even makes it to IL in the first place.


I asked because I have been asked to back up my claims. I've also been told to do research before going on assumptions.

BTW 18 districts in IL have 3 delegates each with the exception of I think 2 which have 2 delegates. Santorum did not have enough signatures needed for delegates in for 10, 4 districts he didn't submit any, and therefore he only has delegates in 4 of the 18 districts.


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 28, 2012 4:27 pm 
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One day poll only but it is post second debate:

Romney - 40
Gingrich - 30
Santorum - 15
Paul - 6

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/files/wr ... 272012.pdf

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:02 am 
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"A new InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sunday night of likely Republican voters in the state of Florida shows a significant surge for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich."

http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/ging ... /id/425901

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:08 am 
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:lol: there's a reason why I'm no longer making predictions.


But will Newt be able to overcome all the early voting that's already gone on?

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2012 1:13 am 
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This would be good news, but it would also be against what every other polling firm has been showing. It will be interesting to see if any other polls come out Monday showing a similar trend.

I had wondered if it was possible for Romney to suffer a backlash for all the negativity and distortions, but I had given up hope after seeing the polls that came out earlier today.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2012 2:10 pm 
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I saw this on twitter and not able to confirm it elsewhere, yet coming from a reputable radio station here suggests it is an accurate report on the poll results (I can't vouch for the poll accuracy or any specifics about it):

Wbob Jacksonville
Romney Opens Up 20-Point Lead in Florida Republican Primary according to Suffolk University

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 Post subject: Latest Florida Polls
PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2012 2:49 pm 
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I don't know about you guys, but I am having trouble getting through all of the topics. I love that HA has lit up and more and more people are coming back and checking in and posting. In my constant attempt to keep things organized, I thought maybe we could have one polls thread for each state, instead of individual posting each time a new poll comes out, kind of like we have done with Endorsements. Include the date if possible.

Here is the latest from PPP, which I feel is one of the most reliable.

January 29, 2012

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/01/little-movement-in-florida.html

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Little Movement in Florida

PPP's second day of tracking in Florida finds little change in the state of the race. Mitt Romney leads with 39% to 32% for Newt Gingrich with Rick Santorum at 14% and Ron Paul at 11%. Romney and Santorum are both down a single point from Saturday's polling while Paul has gained 2 points and Gingrich has stayed in place.

The reason we don't find Gingrich getting blown out by a double digit margin in Florida is that he's winning a lot of the same groups he did in South Carolina. He's up 37-33 with Evangelicals, 40-33 with Tea Partiers, and 36-29 with voters who describe themselves as 'very conservative.' The problem for him is that he's not winning those groups by the same kinds of margins that he did in the Palmetto State.

Romney continues to have a large lead in the bank in Florida. 34% of our respondents said they'd already voted and with those folks he has a 45-33 lead. That puts Gingrich in a position where he'd have to not only win the election day vote, but win it by 6 or 7 points to upset Romney in the state. The kind of reversal necessary to make that happen seems unlikely to occur in the next 48 hours.

Almost Romney's entire lead in Florida is coming from moderate voters. He has a 58-15 lead over Gingrich with them and only a 1 point advantage with the rest of the electorate. Other groups that continue to be a particular source of strength for Romney are seniors (48-32) and women (43-30).

We will have one final night of Florida tracking tomorrow.


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 Post subject: Re: Latest Florida Polls
PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2012 2:51 pm 
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good idea.. I will merge the other threads on FL polls into this one

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 Post subject: Re: Latest Florida Polls
PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2012 3:23 pm 
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Thanks Ken!


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 Post subject: Re: Latest Florida Polls
PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2012 10:22 am 
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I have heard on-the-ground rumors that Gingrich is having tremendous responses with audiences in parts of Florida, while Romney actually draws 300, etc. The police said that the Naples, FL crowd was unlike any they had counted in that area. The estimate of 6,000 people would be more like 7,500 if they counted those filling the streets around. If it were not for the $16 million that Romney has spent, compared to the less than $1 million for Gingrich, and the extremely negative, untruthful campaigning that Romney has done, Gingrich would be winning again. These ads put doubts in people's minds. But when they actually hear Newt speak, the people respond, realizing he is a true Reagan conservative.

Who do the Democrats fear?

http://www.wearepolitics.com/1/post/201 ... -1994.html

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2012 10:54 am 
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Miserere wrote:
:lol: there's a reason why I'm no longer making predictions.


But will Newt be able to overcome all the early voting that's already gone on?



That is one reason why I do not like early voting. Especially when people vote several days in advance. There is always the potential for you to have a change of heart in one way or another, something comes out in the media, etc. before the actual voting day arrives. But by then you've already cast your vote and cannot undo it. In my opinion, early voting should go away.

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Post by ohiorepublican09 has received Likes: 2 FirstCoastTerp, justgrace
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