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Some Michigan & Arizona Speculation
http://www.forum.hucksarmy.com/viewtopic.php?f=180&t=26444
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Author:  Southern Doc [ Tue Feb 14, 2012 10:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Some Michigan & Arizona Speculation

It is also standard methodology to "capture" early and absentee voting in your polling screens. You do not discard such voters when you survey. So the polls we are looking at are fair reflections of where the race stands today.

Over time the main consideration involving early and absentee is how much flexibility remains in the electorate to change their minds and whether a particular early GOTV is so superior before the last Tuesday as to allow them more opportunity to grap a greater share of their "weak" vote and undecideds on election day itself.

Author:  EricB [ Wed Feb 15, 2012 9:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Some Michigan & Arizona Speculation

New Mitchell/Detroit News Michigan Poll:

Santorum: 34%
Romney: 25%
Paul: 11%
Gingrich: 5%
Undecided: 25%

Poll was conducted February 14.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2 ... I_0215.pdf

Author:  WhatsNotToLike? [ Wed Feb 15, 2012 10:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Some Michigan & Arizona Speculation

When are the Michigan and Arizona primaries?

Mods, could we get a sticky with primary/caucus dates?

Author:  brownkb [ Wed Feb 15, 2012 10:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Some Michigan & Arizona Speculation

Quote:
When are the Michigan and Arizona primaries?


They're both on Feb 28.

Author:  EricB [ Wed Feb 15, 2012 10:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Some Michigan & Arizona Speculation

Now that we have some more national polls since the wins by Santorum on Feb. 7, we have a better read on where things stand. If you average the 5 of them (CBS, Pew, PPP, Gallup, CNN) we get this result:

Santorum: 32.4%
Romney: 28.4%
Gingrich: 15.0%
Paul: 12.2%
Undecided: 12.0%

Compare this to the three polls (ABC, Reuters, Rasmussen) of the state of the race after Florida but before Santorum's wins:

Romney: 31.7%
Gingrich: 23.3%
Santorum: 18.0%
Paul: 15.3%
Undecided: 11.7%

Gingrich -8.3% (down 35.6%)
Romney -3.3% (down 10.4%)
Paul -3.1% (down 20.3%)
Santorum +14.7%


So, nationally Santorum has gained about 15 points, but that doesn't mean that he's gained 15 points in every state. Some states will be more and some less. Gingrich has lost the most support, so states where Gingrich was strong, you would expect Santorum to have bigger than 15 point gains, and places where he was weak (like the northeast), the gains would be smaller than 15 points.

Applying this to Arizona, since this is what we are interested in since it votes next (and we have no polls yet), we only really have one poll to go off of:

Rasmussen (Feb. 1):
Romney: 48%
Gingrich 24%
Santorum 13%
Paul 6%

If you subtract 20.3% of Paul's support, 10.4% of Romney's support, and 35.6% of Gingrich's support and then add those numbers to Santorum's support, you get:

Arizona guess:
Romney: 43.0%
Santorum: 27.7%
Gingrich: 15.5%
Paul: 4.8%


Now, that's just a guess for Arizona. I would further speculate that voters in Arizona would tend to gravitate towards either Romney or Santorum knowing that Gingrich can't win it. So, Gingrich's support is probably lower than 15%, Santorum's is higher, and Romney's is slightly higher. It's probably a 10-15% advantage for Romney in Arizona right now.

Author:  brownkb [ Wed Feb 15, 2012 2:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Some Michigan & Arizona Speculation

New ARG poll from AZ:

Romney: 38%
Santorum: 31%
Gingrich: 15%
Paul: 11%

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/15/poll-santorum-jumps-in-arizona/

Author:  EricB [ Wed Feb 15, 2012 2:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Some Michigan & Arizona Speculation

Pretty good guess for the Arizona numbers! :D

Author:  cschande [ Wed Feb 15, 2012 2:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Some Michigan & Arizona Speculation

brownkb wrote:
New ARG poll from AZ:

Romney: 38%
Santorum: 31%
Gingrich: 15%
Paul: 11%

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/15/poll-santorum-jumps-in-arizona/


Big gender gap in that poll. Santorum actually leads Romney among men 37-30, but he's getting killed among women 47-24. This gap has shown up in other polls as well. I wonder if it has more to do with Mitt's strength among women voters, or Santorum's weakness with that group, or some combination of the two. As a Santorum supporter I have to admit, this concerns me a bit looking ahead to the general (which I probably shouldn't be doing yet anyway, haha).

Author:  brownkb [ Wed Feb 15, 2012 3:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Some Michigan & Arizona Speculation

Quote:
Big gender gap in that poll.


But not so in the Rasmussen national poll:

Quote:
Some have suggested that Santorum is suffering from a gender gap with Romney. That could be true in polling overall in comparing head-to-head matchups against Barack Obama (and Democrats usually win among women anyway), but it’s not true in Rasmussen’s crosstabs. Santorum beats Romney by eleven among women, almost exactly the same margin as his overall lead. He beats Romney by twelve among men. Santorum also does surprisingly well among younger voters (18-39), almost doubling up on Romney 37/19 with Ron Paul second at 20%. Romney does better with seniors, but still falls six points behind Santorum, who leads 39/33.


http://hotair.com/archives/2012/02/15/rasmussen-national-poll-puts-santorum-up-12-over-romney/

Author:  Miserere [ Wed Feb 15, 2012 3:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Some Michigan & Arizona Speculation

Maybe it's just those Arizona women. Half of em are probably really Californians transplanted into AZ...

Author:  EricB [ Wed Feb 15, 2012 5:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Some Michigan & Arizona Speculation

http://www.mrgmi.com/MRG_IMP_PRIMARY_FINAL.pdf

Michigan poll (Inside Michigan Politics)

Santorum: 43%
Romney: 33%
Gingrich: 11%
Paul: 8%


Polling Dates: Feb 13, 14

Author:  cschande [ Wed Feb 15, 2012 5:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Some Michigan & Arizona Speculation

brownkb wrote:
Quote:
Big gender gap in that poll.


But not so in the Rasmussen national poll:

Quote:
Some have suggested that Santorum is suffering from a gender gap with Romney. That could be true in polling overall in comparing head-to-head matchups against Barack Obama (and Democrats usually win among women anyway), but it’s not true in Rasmussen’s crosstabs. Santorum beats Romney by eleven among women, almost exactly the same margin as his overall lead. He beats Romney by twelve among men. Santorum also does surprisingly well among younger voters (18-39), almost doubling up on Romney 37/19 with Ron Paul second at 20%. Romney does better with seniors, but still falls six points behind Santorum, who leads 39/33.


http://hotair.com/archives/2012/02/15/rasmussen-national-poll-puts-santorum-up-12-over-romney/


I just saw that. Good to hear!

Author:  brownkb [ Wed Feb 15, 2012 8:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Some Michigan & Arizona Speculation

Early voting turnout is high in AZ.

Quote:
With almost two weeks still until primary day in Arizona, almost 150,000 voters in the state's most populous county, Maricopa County, have already cast their ballots.

As of the end of yesterday, 144,518 Maricopa County voters had already returned ballots, according to Arizona Secretary of State spokesman Matt Roberts. That's out of a total 385,227 requested this year. Early voting began on Feb. 2, and voters who have requested early ballots can return them any time up until the polls close on Feb. 28.

Roberts said vote totals so far aren't available for other counties in the state, but Maricopa County -- which includes Phoenix -- is a pretty good indicator: it holds about 60 percent of the state's total registered voters. In 2008, just under 550,000 people voted in the Arizona primary; about 350,000 of them were from Maricopa County, per state election results.


Not sure how all the early voting affects the outcome but I would think that it helps Santorum some since he's still surging at this time.

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