That Mason Dixon poll was taken before the Santorum surge kicked in. A poll taken on 2/9 by Landmark Rosetta showed it tightening with Romney falling to 3rd.

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/local-go ... oll/nHZc3/

Gingrich 35
Santorum 26
Romney 16
Paul 5

Santorum wins straw poll in advance of Georgia rally

A day before a campaign rally in Georgia, Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum won a suburban Atlanta straw poll with 40-percent of the vote. The straw poll was conducted Saturday, Feb. 18 by the Coweta County GOP.


Santorum said the results show that his message of “smaller government, less spending, and strong faith and family is resonating with the great people of Georgia.” He went on to say "Peach State voters realize I'm the consistent conservative in this race who can stop Governor Romney and beat President Obama; I look forward to visiting Georgia many times between now and Super Tuesday."


Continue reading on Examiner.com Santorum wins straw poll in advance of Georgia rally - Atlanta Political Buzz | Examiner.com http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz- ... z1mu9iNdrI

I agree with Eric that if the polls start to look like there's a good chance Newt could lose Georgia then he may go ahead and drop out before Super Tuesday. My guess is you'd assess this about the Thursday or Friday before the election.

Insider Advantage for Georgia 2/20/12:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2 ... A_0220.pdf

Gingrich 25.9
Romney 23.9
Santorum 22.8
Paul 11.7
Undecided 11.7
Other 4.4

The main reason being that 27.5% of those they polled are independents!!!

Insider Advantage for Georgia 2/20/12:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2 ... A_0220.pdf

Gingrich 25.9
Romney 23.9
Santorum 22.8
Paul 11.7
Undecided 11.7
Other 4.4

Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Poll Watch: InsiderAdvantage (R) Georgia 2012 Republican Primary Survey
InsiderAdvantage (R) Georgia 2012 GOP Primary Poll

Newt Gingrich 25.9% (54.1%) {17%} [9%] (12%)
Mitt Romney 23.9% (12.4%) {10%} [6%] (10%)
Rick Santorum 22.8% (1.7%)
Ron Paul 11.7% (5.5%) {5%} [5%] (1%)
Someone else 4.4% (0.7%) {4%} [4%] (4%)
No opinion 11.3% (17.4%) {12%} [20%] (22%)


Among Republicans (69.5%)

Newt Gingrich 29.2%
Rick Santorum 25.4%
Mitt Romney 19.2%
Ron Paul 9.8%
Someone else 4.2%
No opinion 12.2%

Among Independents (27.5%)

Mitt Romney 37.5%
Newt Gingrich 17.7%
Ron Paul 17.3%
Rick Santorum 15.6%
Someone else 2.7%
No opinion 9.1%

Survey of 721 likely Republican primary voters was conducted February 20, 2012. Party ID: 69.5% Republican; 27.5% Independent; 3.1% Democrat. Results from the poll conducted December 8, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 3, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 18, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 2, 2011 are in parentheses.