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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2012 8:37 pm 
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Twitter update from PPP:

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Pretty sure Santorum will win election day voters tomorrow in MI, just a question of whether he can make up Romney's absentee lead



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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2012 11:50 pm 
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Final PPP Monday 2-27 poll.

Santorum 39%
Romney 34%

:D :D :D

http://argojournal.blogspot.com/2012/02 ... 12_27.html

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2012 11:52 pm 
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Southern Doc wrote:
Final PPP Monday 2-27 poll.

Santorum 39%
Romney 34%

:D :D :D

http://argojournal.blogspot.com/2012/02 ... 12_27.html


From PPP:

Quote:
Romney leads among Republicans in Michigan. It's Democrats putting Santorum over the top. We'll see if they really show up...


:-?


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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2012 11:57 pm 
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Wow! :mrgreen:

I had such an interesting conversation with an elderly gentlemen this afternoon in MI. He knew George Romney and was appointed to serve on 2 different commissions by Gov Romney. He had personal contact with Newt as well as he did some lobbying in Washington and Lansing in addition to starting several businesses. He was truly torn between voting for Romney & Rick. I was just shocked that he was considering voting for Rick. But he was concerned about Obamacare . . . Honestly, if Mitt is having trouble winning over folks like this, how does he win? scratch

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:11 am 
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On Hannity tonight, they played a robo call going out to MI, paid by Santorum, asking dems to vote for him. Rommey was wining that this was a very low maneuver on Santorum's part. Can someone explain to me why Dems would vote for Santorum? To stop Roomey? Do they feel Santorum will be easier to defeat in the general? I don't quite get it. By the way they showed the poll that showed Roomey and Paul would beat Obama, but didn't bother to show the one showing that Santorum would beat him with higher percentage points, 50% to 45% I think.


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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:29 am 
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peggyp wrote:
On Hannity tonight, they played a robo call going out to MI, paid by Santorum, asking dems to vote for him. Rommey was wining that this was a very low maneuver on Santorum's part. Can someone explain to me why Dems would vote for Santorum? To stop Roomey? Do they feel Santorum will be easier to defeat in the general? I don't quite get it. By the way they showed the poll that showed Roomey and Paul would beat Obama, but didn't bother to show the one showing that Santorum would beat him with higher percentage points, 50% to 45% I think.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... dates.html

You're essentially correct, though their numbers are a little different.

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:40 am 
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peggyp wrote:
On Hannity tonight, they played a robo call going out to MI, paid by Santorum, asking dems to vote for him. Rommey was wining that this was a very low maneuver on Santorum's part. Can someone explain to me why Dems would vote for Santorum? To stop Roomey? Do they feel Santorum will be easier to defeat in the general? I don't quite get it. By the way they showed the poll that showed Roomey and Paul would beat Obama, but didn't bother to show the one showing that Santorum would beat him with higher percentage points, 50% to 45% I think.


Yes, a lot of D's think Obama could take care of Santorum easily in a general so apparently there's a movement of some in MI to vote for him in the primary.

As far as Santorum encouraging D's to come vote for him, he's been saying he thinks he can get Reagan Democrats in a way that the other candidates wouldn't be able to. So it makes sense for him to begin to make that case in an open primary.

However, it will be hard to distinguish between which D's are voting for him because they like him, and which ones are doing so because they think he'll be easier to beat than Romney.

I think the polls showing him doing better in the swing states are a demonstration of a certain appeal to rust belt moderates. And that's without the message pivot in full swing that he'd take in the general.

I think the message pivot for Santorum in the general would basically be his Iowa victory speech. A economic policy that "includes everyone", that favors families, that encourages manufacturing, that comes out and explicitly says balancing the budget and cutting taxes isn't enough. I do think it has appeal to moderate D's.

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THE TIMES are nightfall, look, their light grows less;
The times are winter, watch, a world undone:
They waste, they wither worse; they as they run
Or bring more or more blazon man’s distress.
And I not help. Nor word now of success:
All is from wreck, here, there, to rescue one—
Work which to see scarce so much as begun
Makes welcome death, does dear forgetfulness.
Or what is else? There is your world within.
There rid the dragons, root out there the sin.
Your will is law in that small commonweal…
G.M. Hopkins.



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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:51 am 
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Miserere wrote:
peggyp wrote:
On Hannity tonight, they played a robo call going out to MI, paid by Santorum, asking dems to vote for him. Rommey was wining that this was a very low maneuver on Santorum's part. Can someone explain to me why Dems would vote for Santorum? To stop Roomey? Do they feel Santorum will be easier to defeat in the general? I don't quite get it. By the way they showed the poll that showed Roomey and Paul would beat Obama, but didn't bother to show the one showing that Santorum would beat him with higher percentage points, 50% to 45% I think.


Yes, a lot of D's think Obama could take care of Santorum easily in a general so apparently there's a movement of some in MI to vote for him in the primary.

As far as Santorum encouraging D's to come vote for him, he's been saying he thinks he can get Reagan Democrats in a way that the other candidates wouldn't be able to. So it makes sense for him to begin to make that case in an open primary.

However, it will be hard to distinguish between which D's are voting for him because they like him, and which ones are doing so because they think he'll be easier to beat than Romney.

I think the polls showing him doing better in the swing states are a demonstration of a certain appeal to rust belt moderates. And that's without the message pivot in full swing that he'd take in the general.

I think the message pivot for Santorum in the general would basically be his Iowa victory speech. A economic policy that "includes everyone", that favors families, that encourages manufacturing, that comes out and explicitly says balancing the budget and cutting taxes isn't enough. I do think it has appeal to moderate D's.


Key tweet from PPP on that note tonight:

Quote:
55% of Santorum Democrats in Michigan like him, 40% don't. Looks like mix between sincere votes and Operation Hilarity


Also, they found this ideological breakdown of Dems supporting Santorum:

Quote:
27% very liberal, 24% somewhat liberal, 28% moderate, 16% somewhat conservative, 6% very conservative


I'll admit, I'm a little worried the Dems saying they'll vote Santorum are inflating his numbers in the polls, but when push comes to shove they won't be motivated enough to actually get out and vote (hey, I'll take 'em!). We'll see.

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 1:05 am 
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So it looks like the D's voting for him are about half because they like him, half because they want to beat him. Pretty interesting, and I think the D's should be worried about that. It goes to show there's actually some rust belt Democrat support for Santorum.

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They waste, they wither worse; they as they run
Or bring more or more blazon man’s distress.
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All is from wreck, here, there, to rescue one—
Work which to see scarce so much as begun
Makes welcome death, does dear forgetfulness.
Or what is else? There is your world within.
There rid the dragons, root out there the sin.
Your will is law in that small commonweal…
G.M. Hopkins.


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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 4:29 am 
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My completely unscientific analysis is that Romney was heading toward a 5 point win on Friday, and then he managed to step on his momentum and give people an opportunity to think about who he really is and whether people wanted to vote for him. In the debate and leading up to it he had successfully focused voters on Santorum's weaknesses, but when that momentum started to wane people began to think about Romney's weaknesses as well.

I'd still say Romney should win by 2 points, but Santorum has a chance. I don't think the protest vote from some Democrats is going to be a factor. If you hear Romney blaming a loss on that then you know it's all spin.

Even a very close 2nd is good for Santorum and sets him up well for the upcoming contests, but a win could be huge. The headlines and momentum could be enough to propel him to the nomination.


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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 10:03 am 
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Romney admits he voted in Dem primary to influence the outcome of the race.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/02/romney-also-said-he-voted-in-dem-primaries-to-influence-115774.html

Quote:
The Romney campaign has been denouncing Democratic efforts - and now those by Rick Santorum - to get Democrats to vote in Michigan's open primary.

Mitt Romney himself called it a "new low" in politics in a round of TV interviews.

"President Obama's reelection team is now actively engaged in changing the outcome of the Republican primary," declared Romney campaign manager Matt Rhoades in an email to the campaign's list. "This is politics at its worst. It doesn't get much more pathetic."

Yet Romney himself gave a similar explanation in his last presidential run for why he crossover voted in in the 1990s in Massachusetts, per this ABC News clip:

ABC News’ Jonathan Greenberger Reports: Republican presidential candididate Mitt Romney offered a new explanation today for why he supported a Democrat in 1992.

That year, Romney, then a registered independent, voted for former Sen. Paul Tsongas in the 1992 Democratic presidential primary. He told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos, in an interview that will air Sunday on "This Week," that his vote was meant as a tactical maneuver aimed at finding the weakest opponent for incumbent President George H.W. Bush.

"In Massachusetts, if you register as an independent, you can vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary," said Romney, who until he made an unsuccessful run for Senate in 1994 had spent his adult life as a registered independent. "When there was no real contest in the Republican primary, I’d vote in the Democrat primary, vote for the person who I thought would be the weakest opponent for the Republican."

The practice, the piece notes, is known as "raiding," and is what is happening with efforts to get Democrats to turn out today in Michigan. A Romney spokeswoman didn't respond to an email about what the difference is in this case.

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 5:02 pm 
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brownkb wrote:
Romney admits he voted in Dem primary to influence the outcome of the race.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/02/romney-also-said-he-voted-in-dem-primaries-to-influence-115774.html

Quote:
The Romney campaign has been denouncing Democratic efforts - and now those by Rick Santorum - to get Democrats to vote in Michigan's open primary.

Mitt Romney himself called it a "new low" in politics in a round of TV interviews.

"President Obama's reelection team is now actively engaged in changing the outcome of the Republican primary," declared Romney campaign manager Matt Rhoades in an email to the campaign's list. "This is politics at its worst. It doesn't get much more pathetic."

Yet Romney himself gave a similar explanation in his last presidential run for why he crossover voted in in the 1990s in Massachusetts, per this ABC News clip:

ABC News’ Jonathan Greenberger Reports: Republican presidential candididate Mitt Romney offered a new explanation today for why he supported a Democrat in 1992.

That year, Romney, then a registered independent, voted for former Sen. Paul Tsongas in the 1992 Democratic presidential primary. He told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos, in an interview that will air Sunday on "This Week," that his vote was meant as a tactical maneuver aimed at finding the weakest opponent for incumbent President George H.W. Bush.

"In Massachusetts, if you register as an independent, you can vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary," said Romney, who until he made an unsuccessful run for Senate in 1994 had spent his adult life as a registered independent. "When there was no real contest in the Republican primary, I’d vote in the Democrat primary, vote for the person who I thought would be the weakest opponent for the Republican."

The practice, the piece notes, is known as "raiding," and is what is happening with efforts to get Democrats to turn out today in Michigan. A Romney spokeswoman didn't respond to an email about what the difference is in this case.


There is a HUGE difference. One is what Romney says, the other is what he does. Any follower of Romney knows that those two things are very distinct and almost never intersect.

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Oliver Wendell Holmes



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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 5:18 pm 
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Southern Doc, I'll see your Romney hypocrisy story and raise you one... :wink: :lol:

Romney backers wanted a MI open primary in 2012 so "Independents and Democrats" would cross over and vote for Romney...

http://rebelpundit.com/2012/02/surprise ... -michigan/

From the article:

Quote:
According to our source, “with a large TNT bomb they blew the door off the hinges to allow Democrats to come in and vote today.” Who opposed this open primary rule? According to the MRSC member we talked to, die hard conservatives voted NO on the open primary because they knew anything other than a caucus or convention could allow liberals and Democrats to play a large role in selecting the Republican nominee. In the end, Romney’s supporters on the committee from Wayne County and Oakland County won out, believing the influx of Democrats and independents would boost Romney’s performance.

Romney today is bemoaning the possibility of Democrats influencing then outcome of today’s election. He should recall it was his own prominent establishment Republican supporters across Michigan who made this possible.


The depth of Romney's hypocrisy never ceases to amaze me! The KING of dirty tricks is actually accusing Santorum of dirty tricks over this! :roll:


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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 5:55 pm 
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ColoradoMom4Huckabee wrote:
Southern Doc, I'll see your Romney hypocrisy story and raise you one... :wink: :lol:

Romney backers wanted a MI open primary in 2012 so "Independents and Democrats" would cross over and vote for Romney...

http://rebelpundit.com/2012/02/surprise ... -michigan/

From the article:

Quote:
According to our source, “with a large TNT bomb they blew the door off the hinges to allow Democrats to come in and vote today.” Who opposed this open primary rule? According to the MRSC member we talked to, die hard conservatives voted NO on the open primary because they knew anything other than a caucus or convention could allow liberals and Democrats to play a large role in selecting the Republican nominee. In the end, Romney’s supporters on the committee from Wayne County and Oakland County won out, believing the influx of Democrats and independents would boost Romney’s performance.

Romney today is bemoaning the possibility of Democrats influencing then outcome of today’s election. He should recall it was his own prominent establishment Republican supporters across Michigan who made this possible.


The depth of Romney's hypocrisy never ceases to amaze me! The KING of dirty tricks is actually accusing Santorum of dirty tricks over this! :roll:


I have never quite understood why Republicans would, in their own primary, allow Democrats to vote. This is a Republican primary and should be the choice of Republicans to go against a Democrat. It is fine if they register first as Republicans, from a real desire to be in the party. But sometimes it is just to be a spoiler for the candidate they think would be hardest to beat in the general election.

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 6:00 pm 
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justgrace wrote:

I have never quite understood why Republicans would, in their own primary, allow Democrats to vote. This is a Republican primary and should be the choice of Republicans to go against a Democrat. It is fine if they register first as Republicans, from a real desire to be in the party. But sometimes it is just to be a spoiler for the candidate they think would be hardest to beat in the general election.


I totally agree, Grace!


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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 9:43 pm 
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Me, too, Grace! This is one of the things I hate most about the way the Iowa Caucuses are set up. I saw it first hand at ours. I know there will be a change presented from our County and I hope the rest of the state agrees and this is changed this year.



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