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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 10:20 am 
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This obviously doesn't factor in last night's debate but the most recent MI poll is from the Detroit Free Press 2/18 - 2/21:
http://www.freep.com/article/20120222/N ... poll-shows

Santorum 37
Romney 34
Paul 10
Gingrich 7

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 1:10 pm 
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http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres20 ... ary/rep/mi

Michigan ARG Poll:

Santorum: 38%
Romney: 34%
Paul: 12%
Gingrich: 7%
Undecided: 9%

Poll Date: February 22


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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 1:57 am 
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Don't undecideds generally break for whoever appears to be leading in the polls?


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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 2:44 am 
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QuoVadisAnima wrote:
Don't undecideds generally break for whoever appears to be leading in the polls?


I think undecideds tend to go with whoever is trending in the final couple of days.

I could be wrong, but I'm concerned Romney is going to win Michigan. We'll know by the polls that come out Saturday. If the gap is closing then Romney could win. I'm just hoping that if he does win it is still close, and they aren't able to call it for at least an hour. That alone would help since they'll be talking for that hour about why it was so close in Romney's home state, and why he wasn't able to do it better.



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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 3:33 pm 
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Turnout for Santorum is the key. If Santorum supporter turnout is large, he'll overperfom the poll numbers. He's consistently been doing that, largely due to his dedicated followers.

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 6:52 pm 
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WalterCan wrote:
QuoVadisAnima wrote:
Don't undecideds generally break for whoever appears to be leading in the polls?


I think undecideds tend to go with whoever is trending in the final couple of days.

I could be wrong, but I'm concerned Romney is going to win Michigan. We'll know by the polls that come out Saturday. If the gap is closing then Romney could win. I'm just hoping that if he does win it is still close, and they aren't able to call it for at least an hour. That alone would help since they'll be talking for that hour about why it was so close in Romney's home state, and why he wasn't able to do it better.


You are right from what I know Walter. But there is also another political inside baseball stat that if incumbents don't close the deal before election day they tend to loose most of those who are still left undecided. A "homestate" boy might have the quality of an incumbent. If Romney hasn't convinced you by now he won't. And that includes whether you're even going to bother to vote.

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Sat Feb 25, 2012 5:30 pm 
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I'd say right now it is looking like a Romney 5 point win in Michigan. The national polls are tightening as well so it seems like the combination of all the focus on birth control coupled with a perceived bad debate performance has hurt Santorum. Santorum had some missteps, and the media helped to make him look like a social issues ONLY candidate by constantly focusing on it.

We'll have to wait and see what happens over the next couple of days. There's still time for a 2 or 3 point swing one way or the other. I still say all Santorum really needs to do is keep this race within a couple of points so the media can't immediately call it for Romney.

If Santorum does not win Michigan then I believe Ohio becomes a Must-Win for him.


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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2012 9:42 pm 
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While there have been many polls in the field this time it might be helpful to consider the non-predictive quality of polling this cycle. Much of the "wild ride" story line concerning this primary is the product of the press (and political junkies like us) assuming that the gyrations of the polls are all real. This makes for great "racehorse" viewing, but the truth is we really only know at all what is happening when folks actually vote.

Here's the track record thus far from RCP:

Iowa -
Santorum over-performed polling by - 8 points

New Hampshire-
Romney under-performed polling by - 4 points

South Carolina-
Gingrich over-performed polling by - 7 points

Florida-
Romney over-performed polling by - 1 point

Nevada-
Romney over-performed polling by - 4 points

Minnesota-
Santorum over-performed polling by - 9 points

Missouri-
Santorum over-performed polling by - 17 points

Colorado-
Santorum over-performed polling by - 13 points


On average the polls have been off by an average of 8 points

Santorum has over-performed his polls in state's he won by an average of 11.75 points. Romney by .33 points.

By all rights Romney should be ahead in both states (esp AZ). I still think he is likely to lose MI.

Here's hoping for the math majors to continue their performance thus far. :D

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2012 10:21 pm 
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I still expect Romney to win Michigan, but I think it will be close. It would be nice if Santorum won Michigan because that would just about finish Romney off. What really needs to happen is that there needs to be 1 conservative candidate consolidating the vote against Romney. Gingrich is only helping Romney by staying in the race.


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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2012 10:52 pm 
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A week ago I thought Santorum would run away with Michigan by at least 5 points.

Now, I think Romney will win. Why the difference? Romney has more than saturated the TV and Radio markets with negative ads about Santorum. Looks like another win for Romney with disregard for the bodies left in the wake.

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2012 12:41 pm 
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Latest MI polls:

Rasmussen:
Romney: 38%
Santorum: 36%
Paul: 11%
Gingrich: 10%

PPP:
Romney: 39%
Santorum: 37%
Paul: 13%
Gingrich: 9%

Rosetta Stone Communications:
Santorum: 37%
Romney: 35%
Gingrich: 9%
Paul: 8%

We Ask America:
Romney: 37%
Santorum: 33%
Paul: 18%
Gingrich: 13%

ARG:
Santorum: 38%
Romney: 34%
Paul: 12%
Gingrich: 7%


Looks like a very tight race in Michigan. Romney's negative campaigning has had some impact, but not near the impact that the negative the ads against Gingrich had in Florida or Iowa. Romney has to carpet bomb millions just to move the needle a little bit in his favor.


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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2012 1:39 pm 
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I was just studying the RCP averages and it looks like Santroum has rebounded in the Sunday polls from the polls that were taken the day after the debate. Rasmussen went from a +4 Romney favor to a +2 and Mitchelll/Rosetta Stone went from Romney +3 to Santorum +2. RCP has Romney ahead by 1.5 but trending down.

Reports are that Romney is still hammering Santorum on the campaign trail. The day before the Florida primary Romney was no longer hammering on Newt because he knew the clubbing had worked. Hopefully we can save Michigan!!!

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2012 1:44 pm 
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Iowans Rock wrote:
I was just studying the RCP averages and it looks like Santroum has rebounded in the Sunday polls from the polls that were taken the day after the debate. Rasmussen went from a +4 Romney favor to a +2 and Mitchelll/Rosetta Stone went from Romney +3 to Santorum +2. RCP has Romney ahead by 1.5 but trending down.

Reports are that Romney is still hammering Santorum on the campaign trail. The day before the Florida primary Romney was no longer hammering on Newt because he knew the clubbing had worked. Hopefully we can save Michigan!!!


Actually, Rasmussen went from Romney +6 to Romney +2, so even better!


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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2012 1:48 pm 
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That's right! Rick just needs to be on the upswing going in because he always over performs his poll numbers as Southern Doc has pointed out. I am assuming these polls include all early voting also.

And from what I see those are the only two polls that took a Thursday and a Sunday sample. I don't see ARG polling on RCP...did they do a Thursday and Sunday sample also?

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2012 2:44 pm 
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He's over performed polls in the past because up was the only direction he was heading. His momentum was moving up, his favorability was steady or growing.

Tomorrow none of that will be true. His favorability numbers have been diminishing. I'm not optimistic. Our best shot is an enthusiasm gap where Santorum voters turn out and Romney voters stay home.

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2012 5:37 pm 
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Hopefully this is a good sign. Team Romney downplaying Michigan.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/romney-supporter-mitt-could-win-by-losing#HTWF2

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:14 pm 
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Iowans Rock wrote:
Hopefully this is a good sign. Team Romney downplaying Michigan.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/romney-supporter-mitt-could-win-by-losing#HTWF2


Man are they ever hedging their bets as well as spinning.

Here's my favorite part which actual concerns how their method of apportioning delegates has baked in a Romney delegate win regardless of the popular vote total:

Quote:
But many of Romney's delegates will come from Democratic-leaning districts where turnout will be low, Anuzis said, while Santorum will draw the most votes in the state's more conservative areas. That leaves open the possibility that Romney wins the delegate vote, but not the popular vote count


So they are actually trumpeting a win by way on low turnout Democratic leaning districts getting more representation in who should be the GOP nominee than the state's "more conservative areas" even when those areas have produced enough votes to carry the popular vote.

How, please tell, does the Romney campaign intend to win in November if those "conservative areas" do not turn out in huge numbers to off set the advantage Dems have in the state?

You are dead right Iowa. They are worried and that is a VERY hopeful sign. If Rick can win MI after Romney threw his best punch in his own ring, then Romney is more than in little trouble and manipulated delegate counts won't save him by the time we get to Tampa.

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:26 pm 
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This reminds me of what I saw of the Romney machine here in Colorado. His campaign had a guy at our precint (and I assume others across the state) who monitored the vote count, then left to report it to Romney. When Romney held his press conference early (while the votes were still coming in) and said he expected to come in first or second, that told me his campaign's internal data wasn't looking good, and he was already trying to spin the outcome in a positive light. I'm hoping this means that, likewise, his internal data in MI isn't looking as strong as he would like it.


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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2012 7:27 pm 
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If Romney loses Michigan, counting delegates here and there isn't going to matter. The later wins will give Santorum more than enough delegates. Plus, a lot of delegates are going to be uncommitted, and they will vote for the person who won primaries and caucuses. Plus, once Gingrich is out, most of his supporters and delegates will go to Santorum.


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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2012 8:30 pm 
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PPP's tweet this afternoon gives a hint about the results of today's poll :D :

Quote:
Started today's Michigan calls at 4 and so far seeing encouraging things for Santorum. Tomorrow may be a long night


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