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 Post subject: Pennsylvania polls
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 1:30 pm 
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Santorum has a huge lead in Pennsylvania.

https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyfeb12_1.pdf

Franklin & Marshall College:

Santorum: 45%
Romney: 16%
Gingrich: 9%
Paul: 7%
Undecided: 23%


Compare Pennsylvania (Santorum's home state) with Michigan (Romney's home state). The rest of the Midwest is somewhere in-between Pennsylvania and Michigan, which means that Santorum leads everywhere in the Midwest, for example Wisconsin shows Santorum up 16 points. As long as the race is pretty close nationally, Romney isn't going to win a single state in the Midwest (other than Michigan maybe) or the South (where he's being blown out). His strength is confined to the Northeast, Mormon areas, or states with a lot of older, wealthier voters (Florida, Arizona). He's running out of favorable terrain.


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 Post subject: Re: Pennsylvania polls
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 4:14 pm 
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EricB wrote:
Santorum has a huge lead in Pennsylvania.

https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyfeb12_1.pdf

Franklin & Marshall College:

Santorum: 45%
Romney: 16%
Gingrich: 9%
Paul: 7%
Undecided: 23%


Compare Pennsylvania (Santorum's home state) with Michigan (Romney's home state). The rest of the Midwest is somewhere in-between Pennsylvania and Michigan, which means that Santorum leads everywhere in the Midwest, for example Wisconsin shows Santorum up 16 points. As long as the race is pretty close nationally, Romney isn't going to win a single state in the Midwest (other than Michigan maybe) or the South (where he's being blown out). His strength is confined to the Northeast, Mormon areas, or states with a lot of older, wealthier voters (Florida, Arizona). He's running out of favorable terrain.


Romney's support is inversely proportional to the probability of a state voting GOP in a Presidential election. The bluer the state the better he does in a GOP primary. The redder the worse. Not a good sign for a long contested primary. Even worse news for a general election should he get the nomination.

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 Post subject: Re: Pennsylvania polls
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 4:52 pm 
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Once we are past Arizona and Michigan and into March, things are much more favorable for a conservative candidate like Santorum.

Overall, 18 states vote in March, excluding Wyoming because it doesn't have any results that will be released (only delegates chosen). Only 5 of those contests favor Romney, and one of those is just by default because he's the only one on the ballot (Virginia). The other 4 favoring him are Vermont, Massachusetts, Idaho, and Hawaii. Vermont and Massachusetts will be ignored because they are very liberal states in the Northeast and Massachusetts is Romney's home state (yes, another one). Idaho will be discounted if he wins it because of the Mormon vote, just like no one cared about Nevada. Hawaii won't even be noticed very much.

12 states favor Santorum in March. Washington is a caucus and the latest poll has Santorum with an 11 point lead. He should have an advantage in Washington, but it's not a lock. Georgia also favors Santorum. I still think Gingrich trails off after getting blown out in Arizona, Michigan, and Washington. Santorum is a close 2nd in Georgia, and the momentum should push him into the lead. Even if Gingrich wins it, he'll probably endorse Santorum eventually and the delegates will end up in Santorum's camp anyway. Santorum is way ahead in Tennessee and Oklahoma. North Dakota and Alaska have caucuses in conservative states. They should both be massive blowouts for Santorum. Ohio will be big, and Romney has a shot there, but the latest poll has Santorum ahead by double digits. After Super Tuesday, it's all in Santorum's favor with the exception of Hawaii. The Kansas caucus won't be close at all. Then, it's Alabama and Mississippi. Then, another blowout in the Missouri caucus. A week later it's Louisiana.

Sandwiched in-between Missouri and Louisiana is Illinois. The votes prior to Illinois will have been Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi, Hawaii, and Missouri. Santorum should be 4-1 in that stretch. I could see Illinois going either way.

If it's basically an even race between Santorum and Romney after Super Tuesday, then Santorum should be the nominee is what I'm saying.


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