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 Post subject: National primary poll
PostPosted: Wed Feb 18, 2015 2:21 pm 
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New CNN poll. Huckabee strong.

Huckabee 17
Bush 12
Paul 11
Walker 11
Carson 9
Christie 7
Rubio 6
Cruz 3
Perry 2
Santorum 2
Kasich 2
Jindal 1

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2015/CNN_2016R_021815.pdf

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 18, 2015 3:44 pm 
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It looks like he is first in every category except Over $50K


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 18, 2015 8:02 pm 
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Wow, this is surprising. There is a 5.5% margin of error, but you would think Scott Walker would be up there.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:22 pm 
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Good poll for Huckabee. The national media continues to dismiss him and his chances. Some of that is reflective of the fact that the national media (conservative as well as liberal) are socio-economically more affluent. Huckabee's appeal is particularly strong among those making less money in this poll. He leads by more than two to one among those making less than $50,000 in this poll compared to Bush and Walker. They do as well or better than Huckbee with those making more than $50,000. So the media simply are expressing their own comfirmational bias.

But what we know from the lay of the land politically today is that the next President of the U.S. will be determined by who can capture the $30,000 to $50,000 voter.

This is Huckabee's strength. Some of the "smart money" on the GOP side knows this and they want to win more than any other concern. If no one in the GOP primary can seriously challenge Huckabee for the "less than $50,000" earner primary voter he will be nearly impossible to stop until we have just two candidates. Even then, he would have the advantage as such an appeal with working class voters is likely to make his head to head match-ups with a prospective Dem opponent look better than a rival that seems more elitist.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:34 pm 
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Sorry, my error.

Huckabee is doing twice as well with those voters making less than $50,000 compared to his nearest rival with that group - Rand Paul (who has actively courted marginalized groups).

Huckabee is doing FOUR times better than either Bush or Walker with these average American voters.

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"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes



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PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:24 am 
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VERY encouraging! I would really be surprised if this wasnt a 4-man race by SC. I know it is early to be saying that, but Bush gets the moderate vote, Huck gets the socon vote, Paul has his own group, and Walker is the dark horse that seems to be pulling from multipkle areas (his biggest strength by far). If Huckabee can "knock out" the Cruz/Carson/Santorum/etc candidates and socons can egt behidn one guy, I like his chances.



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PostPosted: Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:53 pm 
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Encouraging!

Let's keep our powder dry, as we await word from the Gov! I think he has a very good shot at being the same thing he was last go around, except this time with a much larger national appeal and much larger fundraising network. :-)

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 22, 2015 12:23 am 
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Jack_Somers81 wrote:
Encouraging!

Let's keep our powder dry, as we await word from the Gov! I think he has a very good shot at being the same thing he was last go around, except this time with a much larger national appeal and much larger fundraising network. :-)

Mr. Somers! Very encouraging to see you back here and still on board.

Let's hope then when the first fundraising numbers are announced by the campaigns that the political class will have to take notice that the Huckabee campaign is truly a force to be reckoned with.


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 22, 2015 9:58 pm 
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Jack_Somers81 wrote:
Encouraging!

Let's keep our powder dry, as we await word from the Gov! I think he has a very good shot at being the same thing he was last go around, except this time with a much larger national appeal and much larger fundraising network. :-)

I agree completely, Jack. So glad to see you back!

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 22, 2015 10:13 pm 
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In his latest book--God, Guns, Grits and Gravy--Governor Huckabee makes a strong case for getting the 80 million self-identified evangelicals out to vote. It seems the major media wants to ignore them, taking for granted they will stay home again. Which is OK as long as Gov. Huckabee is successful in appealing quietly to them to get out to vote, and to vote for him.

This is why Huckabee wrote a book with the down-home appeal to the less affluent, more religious people in flyover country, those that the Republican Establishment continues to ignore. Hopefully, this time, it will be to their detriment and surprise. This may be Huckabee's secret weapon, appealing to one of the largest single potential voting blocs--the evangelicals--if they can be energized and convinced to vote.

Now, if Huckabee can just get the other conservative presidential hopefuls to stand aside and let him advance. A few good debates would help. And I feel his funding and campaign expertise will be greatly improved this round.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 3:55 pm 
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PPP poll:

Walker 25
Carson 18
Bush 17
Huckabee 10
Christie 5
Cruz 5
Paul 4
Rubio 3
Perry 3

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_22415.pdf

Some of the numbers in this poll seem a bit odd to me, e.g., Ben Carson at 18 (!).

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 05, 2015 9:01 am 
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Quinnipiac 3/5: Walker and Bush in race for 1st place.

Walker 18
Bush 16
Huckabee 8
Christie 8
Carson 7
Paul 6
Cruz 6
Rubio 5
Jindal 2
Santorum 2
Perry 1
Kasich 1

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2172

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 05, 2015 8:57 pm 
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Peter wrote:
Quinnipiac 3/5: Walker and Bush in race for 1st place.



http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2172


Maybe those 2 will duke it out and wear out their welcome and Huckabee can sail right up the middle.



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PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2015 11:28 am 
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It is clear that no one is "catching fire" as much as the media in general tried to do with Bush and the "talk" media is trying to do with Walker.

Both have now been run up the flag pole and gotten some, but not too many, salutes.

Two take aways:

1.) Bush had a bad launch in that he stoked the fears of grassroots conservatives, evoking memories of his father who was always more a Rockefeller Republican than a Reagan Republican. He seemed willing to do this because he seems to have believed he could swiftly forge an iron triad of the GOP left/moderates, major donors, and the air of inevitability (the electibility argument we all choked on in the last two cycles). But it hasn't worked especially in regard to the third element due to Walker's launch.

2.) Walker had a good launch likely too early. It is clear that there were MANY in the talk media waiting to be impressed by whatever Walker said. The bar was very low for him and he cleared it out of the gate. But he has also nicked and skimmed several hurdles since and has needed conservative media to cover for him and allow him to "what the Governor meant to say" his way out of a few media traps and verbal gaffes. Now it seems the nat like attention span of the media is already distractable and his supporters in talk media a bit tired of needing to cover so soom in the campaign. Walker has already played the "attack the media" card which is the nitrous oxide of conservative politics. It will reve your RPM's and get you a quick surge but your engine can't handle it for the duration of the race. We expect our candidates to offer more than denouncing the liberal media. I still think Walker is in this in a big way but we have yet to see him take any fire from fellow Republicans so we just don't know his durability. Nor do his few head to heads (like a presentation with Kasich and Rubio on foreign policy) make him out to be a debate favorite.

We will see.

Meanwhile Huckabee in on the leader board in a position to break out and his campaign strategy is clearly based on his own timetable with a late March or early April launch.

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"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes



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PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2015 2:23 pm 
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Thanks for the input, Southern Doc.

New national primary poll, confirming the current trend in primary polling at the moment:

Bush 19
Walker 18
Huckabee 10
Carson 9
Paul 7
Christie 6
Rubio 5
Cruz 4
Perry 3
Santorum 2

https://s3.amazonaws.com/s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1682657/mcclatchy-marist-poll-2016-nature-of-the-sample.pdf#storylink=relast

One thing I'm glad about is Huckabee's consistency in doing generally well in the polls and consistently polling above someone like Rand Paul (and Christie and Perry, viable contenders).

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2015 3:43 pm 
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Peter.

The Marist Poll has some interesting news in the guts of its data:

Among “moderates” Jeb is leading with 26%.
Here is the leader board for “moderate” ideology (there is no self-identified “liberal” group):
Jeb-26%; Walker 15%; Paul 13%; Huckabee 8%; Christie 6%

Among “conservatives” Walker is leading the race with 20%
Here is the leader board for “conservative” ideology:
Walker 20%; Jeb 18%; Huckabee 9%; Carson 8%; Christie 8%

Among “very conservatives” Walker is leading the race with 24%
Here is the leader board for “very conservative” ideology:
Walker 24%; Huckabee 19%; Carson 19%; Bush 7%; Paul 4%; Rubio 5%

Here are the Moderate/Conservative/Very Conservative splits for the top three candidates:
Bush-26/18/7
Walker-15/20/24
Huckabee-8/9/19

So it seems pretty clear that Bush’s main advantage is his appeal to the left of the party; Huckabee the right of the party; and Walker is currently in the “goldie locks” middle spot.

Huck though is getting 16% of the vote of those who make less than $50,000 (compared to 8% of those above the line). The coming election will likely center on the stalled American Dream (unless the world blows up). Huckabee is very well positioned to move up as this goes along.

Finally, Huck is getting one in five very conservative voters before he has shown nearly as much leg in running as Bush or Walker (who clearly are at full speed).

https://s3.amazonaws.com/s3.documentclo ... ink=relast

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"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes



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PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2015 5:30 pm 
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Southern Doc wrote:

Huck though is getting 16% of the vote of those who make less than $50,000 (compared to 8% of those above the line). The coming election will likely center on the stalled American Dream (unless the world blows up). Huckabee is very well positioned to move up as this goes along.



After a Bounce, Wage Growth Slumps to 0.1%
(http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/07/business/economy/jobs-report-unemployment-february.html?_r=0)

I've heard Gov. Huckabee make the argument ("maximum wage" instead of "minimum wage") about lagging wage increases for a considerable part of the population for the last few decades (the stalled American dream). I think that's a valid (and winning) argument.

There've also been rumors that Gov. Huckabee was in the works behind the wage increases at Wal Mart.
http://daddyhood.net/2015/02/26/walmart-employees-thank-republican-mike-huckabee-raises/

Looks like a leader to me.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 18, 2015 12:43 pm 
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And a new national poll from CNN, Huckabee steady, Bush steady, Walker down, Paul up.

Bush 16
Walker 13
Paul 12
Huckabee 10
Carson 9
Christie 7
Rubio 7
Cruz 4
Perry 4
Kasich 2
Jindal 1
Santorum 1

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/03/17/poll.2016.pdf

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2015 3:12 pm 
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I am glad to see the activity on the board!

I am praying he does run and that there are no press conferences from the Alamo this time around.



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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2015 10:39 am 
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Fox poll, crowded field, Cruz with a bump.

Walker 15
Bush 12
Carson 11
Cruz 10
Huckabee 10
Paul 9
Rubio 8
Christie 4
Perry 3
Santorum 2
Jindal 2
Kasich 1

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/04/02/fox-news-poll-more-families-feel-worse-than-better-as-result-obamacare-walker/

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