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 Post subject: Iowa Poll: Huckabee 1st
PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:51 pm 
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Not by much, but first nonetheless:

Huckabee 14.4 percent
Bush 13.1 percent
Carson 12.8 percent
Walker 9.9 percent
Paul 7.0 percent
Cruz 5.4 percent
Christie 5.4 percent
Rubio 4.2 percent
Santorum 3.8 percent
Perry 3.2 percent
Jindal 1.6 percent
Fiorina 1.3 percent
Kasich 1.3 percent
Graham 0.6 percent

Link: http://loras.edu/About-Loras/News-Events/News/2015/With-Romney-Out,-Loras-College-Poll-Finds-Huckabee.aspx?8

The polling was originally done with Romney in the mix (where he led the pakc), but his supporters were then assigned to their second choice, since he announced he is not running. The link also has some other interesting information.

Like: Who would you absolutely not vote for?

Bush 19.2 percent
Christie 13.4 percent
Romney 8.0 percent
Paul 4.5 percent
Cruz 3.5 percent
Huckabee 3.2 percent

Interesting.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:39 pm 
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Given that he hasn't run for office in eight years, and isn't named Bush, Huckabee has done very well keeping himself viable and visible. It is likely better that he not be the "front runner" in Iowa actually.

There are many candidates who deserve and will get attention. If they each feel that there best approach in auditioning on the Iowa stage is to contrast themselves with the "frontrunner" (which is the typical tactic) then Huck will likely take more hits even if they don't knock him off the poll position.

Then again, this race is likely to be just as vicious as the last two so we might as well get use to the demolition derby. :lurk :eatingpopcorn

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 6:55 pm 
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WOW, this is a great poll! Bush only has support of those who think he is the best option to beat Hilary. I don't know of ANYONE that is supporting him based on his stances; because if people care about this issue or that issue, there is a candidate who actually champions that specific issue much more than Bush; the issues he does champion would have the Dems voting for him. I think his chances are not as strong as many believe to win the nomination. If Huckabee can take Iowa and South Carolina, and tab a guy like Kasich or Walker as his VP before we get to the mid-west, he might be golden.



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PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:47 pm 
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Southern Doc wrote:

Then again, this race is likely to be just as vicious as the last two so we might as well get use to the demolition derby. :lurk :eatingpopcorn

Unfortunately.

:tinfoil

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:05 pm 
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And... another Iowa Poll, Huckabee in third place this time:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2015/01/31/iowa-poll-walker-leads-tight-pack/22659477/

Walker 16
Paul 15
Huckabee 13
Carson 10
Bush 9
Christie 6
Cruz 6
Santorum 5
Rubio 4
Perry 3
Jindal 2

"New-blood"-Walker seems to be enjoying a surge. I don't think we want to elect another first term senator though (Paul).

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:21 pm 
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the Iowa GOP went through a pretty vicious Paulite hostile takeover fight from what I understand. The Paul forces lost but are still orgainized and determined. For someone like Rand we may be looking at floor and ceiling numbers very close to oneanother within a very few points of "15%."

Love to know more from any on the ground.

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:26 am 
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Southern Doc wrote:
the Iowa GOP went through a pretty vicious Paulite hostile takeover fight from what I understand. The Paul forces lost but are still orgainized and determined. For someone like Rand we may be looking at floor and ceiling numbers very close to oneanother within a very few points of "15%."

Love to know more from any on the ground.

A lot of people see that winning the Iowa caucuses may be a political victory, but don't realize that the delegate selection happens afterwards in county and state conventions. The Ron Paul campaign took advantage of this in '12 and I expect Rand Paul's people will, too. This may be even more consequential if the '16 race goes to a brokered convention.


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 01, 2015 6:02 pm 
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I too agree that Jeb Bush's chances of winning the nomination are slim to none. He's too far to the left, and people don't want another Bush in office. Also, I think that Christie's chances aren't good either should he run.

I do believe that the candidate most likely to win the nomination is Scott Walker. All sides of the party seem to like him, and I bet the establishment rallies behind him once it becomes clear that Bush isn't viable. The establishment doesn't really care if the candidate is conservative/moderate/liberal/communist/fascist/libertarian/you name it. What they care about is backing someone who can win. They don't really have principles other than being rich and having influence. I bet they back Walker, and from what I know of him right now I'd be fine with Walker getting the nomination although I don't really know a lot about him other than the left hates him, which is a good thing.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2015 12:07 am 
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Eric,

I'll have to suspend judgement on Bush but he clearly has not bounded into a solid lead which was what the powers that be clearly have told us would/should happen. He will have ample money though and Romney proved that with lots of cash even a very poor candidate can go a Veeeerrrrryyyy long way.

I agree with you about the establishment just wanting to win with two caveats:

1.) not if it means having a candidate who they feel is an embarassment at the cocktail party (it took a very long time for them to embrace Reagan even after he won because they thought him a rube).

2.) not if it means losing their corporate welfare and too big to fail federal sugar daddy.

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"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes



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PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2015 7:37 am 
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Southern Doc wrote:

2.) not if it means losing their corporate welfare and too big to fail federal sugar daddy.


Then Walker would never be the choice. He has stood up to those types of groups time and time again. I think they stay with Bush no matter what. In their minds (and possibly true) he could lose all the way to Florida, then take a huge sweep of florida to get the jumpstart he needs: aka the Rudi Giuliani plan that failed.

I think Huck needs to get Cruz or Carson out of the race to pick up their support early....at least by SC, something he didn't get Fred Thompson to do in 2007 and it cost him the race.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2015 9:25 am 
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karrboy84 wrote:

I think Huck needs to get Cruz or Carson out of the race to pick up their support early....at least by SC, something he didn't get Fred Thompson to do in 2007 and it cost him the race.

Neither Cruz nor Carson are qualified to be president, in my opinion. People like them are fine to further the discussions, but by the time it gets to actual voting, they hopefully will become a non-factor in the polls...

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2015 2:22 pm 
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Peter wrote:
karrboy84 wrote:

I think Huck needs to get Cruz or Carson out of the race to pick up their support early....at least by SC, something he didn't get Fred Thompson to do in 2007 and it cost him the race.

Neither Cruz nor Carson are qualified to be president, in my opinion. People like them are fine to further the discussions, but by the time it gets to actual voting, they hopefully will become a non-factor in the polls...


I aree that neither are qualified; not even close. Heck, Carson isnt qualified to be the mayor of Wasilla, Alaska! I literally have no idea why a man that is so well educated and so passionate about the issues would waste his time and money running for President! The issue is not whether they will get knocked out of the race, but WHEN. I see a problem with both of them plus Huckabee and Santorum running in Iowa and splitting much of the same vote, with Walker taking from varios areas of the electorate and Bush and Christie fighting for the establishment/moderate vote. Bush could win Iowa with only 16-17% of the vote! Christie should do well in NH I would think, as would Paul, possibly pushing Bush down a bit there. I think Carson needs to finish outside of the top 3 in the early states to be out by SC, but Thompson held on in 2007 and cost Huck the nomination imho.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2015 1:24 am 
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Right now if I had to pick a favorite to win the nomination out of the current field, then the smart money would be on Walker. Huckabee has a shot, but it's an outside shot, and a lot of things would have to break his way as well as the establishment vote being split up.

I do not look for Carson's numbers to hold up. If he's still in by the time of the Caucus then I think he'll be around 4%. I don't think Cruz could do much better. The problem with Carson though is that I suspect almost all of his support would come at the expense of Huckabee, and 4% could be the difference between winning and losing. So Huckabee has to make his case to be the culturally conservative candidate and knock the rest out or he has no chance.

I think the real threat to Huckabee though is a possible Kasich candidacy. I've seen Kasich debate, and he would do very well. And Kasich can appeal to cultural conservatives as well as some establishment types. I think once the spotlight is put on Walker he is not going to do well with cultural conservatives. Walker is wanting to wave the white flag on the gay marriage issue, and that will turn evangelicals off in Iowa and SC.

For Huckabee though everything hinges on Iowa. Iowa is a must win. If he wins Iowa then SC becomes a must win.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2015 10:22 pm 
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WalterCan wrote:
Right now if I had to pick a favorite to win the nomination out of the current field, then the smart money would be on Walker. Huckabee has a shot, but it's an outside shot, and a lot of things would have to break his way as well as the establishment vote being split up.

I do not look for Carson's numbers to hold up. If he's still in by the time of the Caucus then I think he'll be around 4%. I don't think Cruz could do much better. The problem with Carson though is that I suspect almost all of his support would come at the expense of Huckabee, and 4% could be the difference between winning and losing. So Huckabee has to make his case to be the culturally conservative candidate and knock the rest out or he has no chance.

I think the real threat to Huckabee though is a possible Kasich candidacy. I've seen Kasich debate, and he would do very well. And Kasich can appeal to cultural conservatives as well as some establishment types. I think once the spotlight is put on Walker he is not going to do well with cultural conservatives. Walker is wanting to wave the white flag on the gay marriage issue, and that will turn evangelicals off in Iowa and SC.

For Huckabee though everything hinges on Iowa. Iowa is a must win. If he wins Iowa then SC becomes a must win.
Walker is getting plenty of love right now because he has the air of newness about him as a national candidate - much the way Rick Perry did in 2012 before he formally declared. It's because we don't know much about him that some are willing to project their hopes and dreams onto him with the expectation that he may turn out to be their conservative savior and champion. But Walker may wilt under the glare of the ever-present media. He may stumble and sidestep some of the more difficult challenges of being a presidential candidate. There are dollars to be raised, debates to be had, and votes to be won, when all the while a single gaffe may condemn him to buffoon-dom.

I think the honest truth about Carson is that the only people who want him to win the nomination are people who are experiencing racial exhaustion and wish to immunize themselves and the GOP from charges of racism. Or they think we need a black person to win the White House to meet the changing demographics.

As far as threats, I think Kasich is too reckless for the establishment to get behind. A bigger threat is the most polished and 'safe' candidate, with the most money - Bush. The best outcome for Huckabee might be for someone like Rand Paul or Christie to slow any Bush momentum in New Hampshire, before he can get to Florida.


And is Iowa really a "must win"? Romney didn't end up winning. If he comes in a close second, is he really done? Remember, Gingrich suddenly became a viable candidate after a huge win in South Carolina. Santorum didn't become truly viable and serious until over a month after Iowa when he won 3 Midwestern contests.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 04, 2015 12:55 am 
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I think you are dead on with Walker and Kaisich. Carson I think is more than white-guilt or a response to Obama. The Carson rise I think is a measue of just how disgusted the base is with the entire political class. Carson is a self-made everyman who spoke truth to power. That is very attractive on its surface and need not be more than skin deep without any "skin deep" consideration. I do think that he being black is a bonus for some, but the appeal is pure Horatio Alger story. The fact that such a rags to riches life story is even more compelling when its an inner-city African-American kid raised by a single mom isn't really about racial politics but the American Dream still having the power to overcome all obstacles, including race.

Ultimately though, I think there are too many good Governors in the mix for a novice to do well. If it was all Senators then maybe. Carson does potentially play for the same voters as Huck, but the polling is unclear as to how much. I don't see Carson though as really going after Huckabee, I suspect they will double team others if they debate together. More like team mates in a Halo type game when you win by outscoring your team mate rival but you still go after the same enemies.

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Oliver Wendell Holmes


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 04, 2015 9:12 am 
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Yes Iowa is must win for Huckabee if he wants to be the nominee. Newt was able to remain viable by winning SC, but staying viable isn't going to get the nomination.

Don't underestimate Walker. He is battle-tested, and through all of those wars in Wisconsin he didn't flinch.

Kasich isn't acceptable to the establishment itself, but some of the voters who would normally go for an establishment type candidate could vote for him. It wouldn't be enough by itself, and he'd have to siphon off a significant chunk from Huckabee.

The field is so strong this time around it is really hard to predict how it will play out, and if Kasich gets in then it gets even more unpredictable.

The best thing that could happen for Huckabee is that Bush, Walker, Christie, and to some degree Rubio are all fighting for the moderate vote, and they keep battling through Florida. The establishment though has been pretty good about settling for a candidate early in the process to keep that from happening.

Of course there's a lot Huckabee can do to help himself, and I think that has a lot to do with learning from the mistakes of 2008, but that's for another post.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 04, 2015 9:12 pm 
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Southern Doc wrote:
I think you are dead on with Walker and Kaisich. Carson I think is more than white-guilt or a response to Obama. The Carson rise I think is a measue of just how disgusted the base is with the entire political class. Carson is a self-made everyman who spoke truth to power. That is very attractive on its surface and need not be more than skin deep without any "skin deep" consideration. I do think that he being black is a bonus for some, but the appeal is pure Horatio Alger story. The fact that such a rags to riches life story is even more compelling when its an inner-city African-American kid raised by a single mom isn't really about racial politics but the American Dream still having the power to overcome all obstacles, including race.

I guess I didn't take that into consideration - the Tea Party element who are just sick of politicians; looking for an empty vessel/blank slate to prove that D.C./government doesn't have to be the way that it is. Let's see if Carly Fiorina gets the same level of interest.
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Ultimately though, I think there are too many good Governors in the mix for a novice to do well. If it was all Senators then maybe. Carson does potentially play for the same voters as Huck, but the polling is unclear as to how much. I don't see Carson though as really going after Huckabee, I suspect they will double team others if they debate together. More like team mates in a Halo type game when you win by outscoring your team mate rival but you still go after the same enemies.
I wonder how many candidates are actually going to break through. Think of all the candidates who leave the race before the first vote is cast: Govs. Gilmore and Thompson and Sen. Brownback in '08. Govs. Pawlenty, Roemer, and Johnson, Herman Cain, and Rep. McCotter in 2012. The point is, I think Huckabee obviously survives to the point of getting past the first hurdle and the first narrowing. In a dynamic race, if people like Santorum, Jindal, Perry and Carson fall off, Huckabee only becomes strengthened.


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 15, 2015 3:41 pm 
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New Iowa poll, Huckabee on top again.

Huckabee 17
Walker 15
Bush 16
Paul 7
Carson 6
Christie 9
Rubio 6
Santorum 5
Cruz 2
Perry 4

http://newscms.nbcnews.com/sites/newscms/files/iowa_february_2015_annotated_questionnaire_nbc_news-marist_poll.pdf

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 15, 2015 9:51 pm 
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If the last two cycles in Iowa are any indication then what we'll see is that moderates in Iowa will decide early, and the evangelicals will break late and mostly toward one candidate. What I notice in this latest poll is that Carson is down and Huckabee is up. That would seem to confirm my theory that Carson's support comes at the expense of Huckabee. If Huckabee solidifies the cultural conservative vote in Iowa (which he is capable of doing) then Carson and Santorum's support will erode and shift toward Huckabee in the final weeks. If Bush and Walker continue to split moderates then it sets Huckabee up for a win.

If that happens Walker and Bush almost go to a Knockout round in New Hampshire, and Huckabee is set up nicely to come into South Carolina with momentum.



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PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:54 am 
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The same polling group has huckabee in 4th in SC because they have Lindsey Graham at 17%! Would Graham really run? And if so, are we going to see another event like 2008 where Huckabee wins Iowa and then would win SC but loses support to graham and its enough to give Bush the win? I think Huck needs 1sts in Iowa and SC to get it to a h2h vs bush (or walker if we're lucky).


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