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National primary poll
http://www.forum.hucksarmy.com/viewtopic.php?f=180&t=27090
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Author:  goalieman [ Sun Nov 01, 2015 3:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: National primary poll

Seems the big drumbeat among many in the talk radio/so-called conservative pundintry is that we have to narrow the field down now to about 5 or 6 candidates. This is more due to them wanting as little competition as possible for their preferred candidates as the faux reasoning that there's too many candidates on stage. They are well aware of what happened in 2008 and want to eliminate any underdogs from rising up and so-called "front-runners" like a Guiliani from getting knocked out. Polls are generally done these days to create public opinion, not reflect it, so like in the recent IBD poll, it would not suprise me to see polls being done now that reflect that desire to "narrow the field".

Author:  juditupp [ Sun Nov 01, 2015 7:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: National primary poll

I saw poll results today (1300 likely Republican voters) that asked which candidates they wanted to drop out. Trump, Bush, Paul and Kasich got the top 4 spots. I am curious what the impact of all 4 dropping out would be. Trump is highly unlikely to drop out. There are rumors that Bush's campaign is floundering but I think he stays in through NH because he has the funds.

Author:  Miranda [ Wed Nov 04, 2015 5:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: National primary poll

Very interesting! Do you happen to have a link for this poll? Would like to read the internals.

juditupp wrote:
I saw poll results today (1300 likely Republican voters) that asked which candidates they wanted to drop out. Trump, Bush, Paul and Kasich got the top 4 spots. I am curious what the impact of all 4 dropping out would be. Trump is highly unlikely to drop out. There are rumors that Bush's campaign is floundering but I think he stays in through NH because he has the funds.

Author:  Peter [ Thu Nov 19, 2015 5:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: National primary poll

Finally some new polling numbers... not much news on the Huckabee front, only confirmed what we knew, that keeping him out of the 1st tier debate was a staged thing...he's tied right together with Kasich, Paul, Fiorina and Christie...and mostly Bush also.

We have two front runners: Trump and Carson

And two runner ups: Rubio and Cruz

And then the rest of them. So...if there is hope for Bush, then there is hope for Huckabee also. Definitely.

Big problem: Cruz-mentum. That must stop.

Carson 26
Trump 19
Cruz 14
Rubio 13
Bush 5
Huckabee 4
Fiorina 4
Kasich 3
Christie 3
Paul 2
Graham 1
Pataki 1
Santorum 0

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/11/gop-has-clear-top-4-clinton-dominant-for-dems-general-election-tight.html

Very positive for Huck:
Quote:
Although Ben Carson remains the most popular of the Republican candidates, his image has taken a little bit of a hit in the last six weeks. His favorability of 61/24 (+37) is down a net 18 points from where it was in early October (+55 at 71/16). Also seeing her favorability go in the wrong direction is Carly Fiorina who declined from +30 (57/27) on the last poll to now +21 (51/30). On the up swing in their favorability numbers are Mike Huckabee (from +6 at 44/38 to +35 at 58/23), Lindsey Graham (from -27 at 18/45 to the still unpopular but better -13 at 24/37), and Chris Christie (from +5 at 43/38 to +14 at 46/32). It's interesting that everyone who participated in the JV debate last week seems to have come out of it with a better image.

Author:  goalieman [ Thu Nov 19, 2015 8:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: National primary poll

I saw a Bloomberg poll that mirrors the PPP results (Huck at 3%). Being able to actually speak during the last debate may have been a blessing in disguise. Of course, they'll ignore him if he's up there in the next big debate again. Or maybe we could invade the next debate and chant "let Huck speak"! :D

Author:  goalieman [ Sun Nov 22, 2015 8:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: National primary poll

Further proof of how pollsters manipulate polls to get a desired outcome, the latest Fox poll is a great example. First, they read off the names starting with Trump, Carson, Rubio, Cruz, etc, and guess what order everyone finishes in? Pretty much in the order that they read the names off. Most people will respond to the first few names given in any type poll (it's why candidates fight over ballot position on the election machines). Second, despite Huck finishing ahead of Christie by 1% in the poll, Fox never uses Huck in head to head matches with the Democrat candidates, but do include Christe and Fiorinna. They also never include Huck in the honesty/dishonesty part of the poll, yet in the report of the poll they suggest that only Carson and Rubio have net favorability ratings among GOP candidates. Here they never even asked voters their opinion of that on half the GOP candidates! :wall

Again, keep in mind that polls are used to create public opinion, not truly measure it. Keep fighting, Team Huck, we're in better shape than the media would like us to think we're in!

Author:  Peter [ Fri Dec 04, 2015 3:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: National primary poll

At least Huck is in good low-polling company :lol:

Trump 36
Cruz 16
Carson 14
Rubio 12
Christie 4
Bush 3
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
Paul 1
Graham 0
Pataki 0
Santorum 0

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

Author:  goalieman [ Sat Dec 05, 2015 2:45 am ]
Post subject:  Re: National primary poll

Based on CNN's criteria for being on the main debate stage next week, it's not looking too good for Huck getting in on it. A candidate needs to be at 3.5% in national polls or 4% in either Iowa or New Hampshire to make it. Huck will need a few polls putting him at 4% or higher in national polls to get him over that threshold, as the past two that have come out (Quinippiac and CNN) weren't so good for him. Not that I buy the validity of most polls, but it is what it is.

Author:  Chadballer [ Mon Dec 07, 2015 4:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: National primary poll

goalieman wrote:
Seems the big drumbeat among many in the talk radio/so-called conservative pundintry is that we have to narrow the field down now to about 5 or 6 candidates. This is more due to them wanting as little competition as possible for their preferred candidates as the faux reasoning that there's too many candidates on stage. They are well aware of what happened in 2008 and want to eliminate any underdogs from rising up and so-called "front-runners" like a Guiliani from getting knocked out. Polls are generally done these days to create public opinion, not reflect it, so like in the recent IBD poll, it would not suprise me to see polls being done now that reflect that desire to "narrow the field".


I think the heavy handed attempt to "winnow the field" will backfire. The JV debate was much less crowded than the supposed "popular crowd" and each candidate got more time to speak. I thought Christie and Huckabee each got more time than they would have had they been on the big stage. It might just end up that the candidates the establishment is trying to sabotage end up having their campaigns saved by the smaller forum instead.

Author:  Peter [ Thu Dec 10, 2015 5:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: National primary poll

perspective

Poll from December 11, 2011: (less than one month before Iowa caucuses)

Newt 40%
Romney 23%
Paul 9%
Bachmann 8%
Perry 6%
Huntsman 5%
Santorum 3%

https://twitter.com/HawkinsUSA/status/674815163418222592?s=04

CBS/NYT poll Dec. 10, 2015:

Trump 35
Cruz 16
Carson 13
Rubio 9
Paul 4
Huckabee 3
Bush 3
Christie 3
Kasich 3
Fiorina 1
Santorum 0
Pataki 0
Graham 0

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-donald-trump-top-ted-cruz-second-hillary-clinton-over-bernie-sanders/

Author:  goalieman [ Fri Dec 11, 2015 9:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: National primary poll

That's interesting that Newt was polling better than Trump at this same time in the race 4 years ago. Yet the talking heads continue to fawn over every poll that comes across the wire. Either they never learn or they use polls to create their hoped for result. I'm all for banning polls.

Author:  Peter [ Fri Dec 18, 2015 7:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: National primary poll

It seems Carson has more or less crashed (and I don't see a rationale for him rising again). So far Huck hasn't really profited much (contrary to what I would have expected).

What will finally put a dent in Trump's numbers? When will Cruz peak?

Trump 34
Cruz 18
Rubio 13
Bush 7
Carson 6
Christie 5
Huckabee 4
Fiorina 4
Kasich 2
Paul 1
Graham 1
Pataki 0
Santorum 1

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/GOPResults.pdf

Author:  Peter [ Wed Jan 13, 2016 10:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: National primary poll

Numbers by and large unchanged from before Christmas.

Trump 36
Cruz 19
Rubio 12
Carson 6
Bush 6
Huckabee 4
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
Kasich 2
Paul 1
Santorum 0

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/13/us/politics/hillary-clintons-lead-over-bernie-sanders-slipping-in-new-poll.html?ref=politics&_r=0

Author:  Peter [ Wed Jan 20, 2016 2:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: National primary poll

These polls that rely on such small samplings are ridiculous, in my opinion.

385 RV, 1/15 - 1/18

Trump 36
Cruz 17
Rubio 11
Carson 8
Bush 5
Christie 3
Kasich 3
Huckabee 3
Fiorina 1
Paul 2
Santorum 1

Also, 1/3 have doubts about Cruz's eligibility.

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/cd79a80a-eff7-45f3-abc6-8e2079193b3d.pdf

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